According to Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball,” Republicans are likely to take control of the Senate in 2012:
As we take a fresh look at next year’s Senate races, one thing is clear: Barring an unexpected reelection landslide by President Obama, Republicans are at least slightly favored to take the Senate. It’s just a basic matter of numbers.
Republicans need to pick up either three or four seats, depending on whether they have the vice president’s tie-breaking vote in 2013. North Dakota is all-but-switched to the GOP already. Besides North Dakota, the hardest states for Democrats to hold will be Nebraska, Montana and Missouri, in that order, because it’s hard to imagine Obama winning any of those states. Nebraska will probably feature a runaway GOP presidential victory, further damaging Sen. Ben Nelson’s (D) chances of reelection.
It’s still early, and anything (read: scandals, a changing economy and international events) could happen to alter the basic dynamics of 2012. Yet the Republicans have so many tempting Senate targets that Mitch McConnell (R-KY) could trade “minority” for “majority” in his leadership title quite easily.
Don’t take anything for granted. But this reminds us how important it is to protect the majority in the House and to take the Senate.
Regardless of the current polling, the likelihood is that Obama will get reelected. The mainstream media will not have it any other way.
Think of the House and Senate as an umbrella insurance policy, protecting us in the case of another presidential electoral catastrophe.
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