Demoralized by the Polls? A Look Back at Big Misses in Battleground Senate Races
Wasn’t this the same poll the Post itself acknowledged was difficult to complete because of Republicans’ reluctance to participate? Yes, it was.
There’s no question that polls in key Senate races have delivered bad news for the GOP. Between the dismal numbers and the breathless headlines they’ve generated — such as “Dems Riding a Wave? Numbers Should Terrify GOP” — perhaps Republicans ought to consider folding up their tents and start working on their concession speeches now.
In Kansas, which President Donald Trump carried by more than 16 points in 2024, a new Washington Post poll puts Democratic Senate candidate and megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton a whopping 10 points (54%-44%) ahead of Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall. Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since the Great Depression.
But wait a minute. Wasn’t this the same poll the Post acknowledged was difficult to complete because Republicans were reluctant to participate? Yes, it was. On Friday, the newspaper published an article titled “We polled Kansas. Democrats wanted to talk. Republicans, not so much,” which detailed the challenges its pollsters faced in gathering data for the poll.
Democrats were far more enthusiastic about taking the poll than Republicans were. Registered Democrats were more than twice as likely as registered Republicans to complete the survey after answering an interviewer’s call — 32 percent versus 12 percent — with a similar partisan gap when texting voters to complete the survey online.
A new round of Senate polls from CNN delivered more alarming news for the GOP. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by 6 points, 49%–43%.
In Michigan, CNN gave Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 7-point advantage over Republican Mike Rogers, 49%–42%. A CBS News/Mitchell poll showed the same 7-point spread, but with a key difference: El-Sayed had crossed the 50% threshold for the first time this election cycle, leading Rogers 51%–44%.
In Maine, CNN showed Democrat Troy Jackson ahead of Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins by 4 points, 49% to 45%. While not a staggering advantage, it put Jackson well ahead of previous surveys. It also pushed his lead in the RCP polling average up to 1.7% and his odds of winning the race to 69%.
The latest round of Ohio Senate polls brought more bad news for Republican incumbent Sen. John Husted. Surveys from Suffolk University, Insider Advantage, Fox News, and Marist put Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown ahead by 3, 3, 5, and 4 points, respectively. Only Rasmussen gave Husted an edge, showing him up by 2 points.
If the latest polls are accurate, the GOP is in for a rough election night. But before accepting that outcome as inevitable, it’s worth recalling just how badly some polls have missed the mark in recent election cycles — particularly in battleground states.
Remember polling guru Ann Selzer’s forecast for Iowa released the weekend before the 2024 election? Her prediction that Kamala Harris would carry the state by 3% was off by a staggering 16 points. That monumental miscalculation sent her into an early retirement and is widely cited as one of the biggest polling misses of all time.
Was Selzer wrong or was she trying to influence an election? It’s a fair question and one that might be asked of other pollsters whose findings diverge so spectacularly from the eventual results.
Starting with 2024 and working backward, let’s look at how far some final polls in battleground Senate races strayed from the actual results. [Data from RealClearPolitics]
Nebraska: A SurveyUSA poll put independent Dan Osborn ahead of Republican Deb Fischer, 50%–44%. Fischer ultimately won by 6.7 points — a 12.7-point miss. [Osborn is currently trying to unseat Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. While there has been very little polling of this race, Ricketts has led in the last two polls by 5 and 6 points.
Texas: An Emerson poll found Ted Cruz (R) ahead of Colin Allred (D) by a single point, 48%–47%. Cruz defeated Allred by 8.5 points — a 7.5-point miss.
Florida: While pollster Morning Consult predicted that Sen. Rick Scott (R) would beat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) by 3 points, 48%–45%, Scott won by 12.8 points — a 9.8-point miss.
2022:
Florida: An InsiderAdvantage survey grossly underestimated Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s strength against Democratic challenger Val Demings. The poll showed Rubio ahead by 6 points; he ultimately trounced Demings by 16.4 points — a 10.4-point miss.
Ohio: A Marist poll put Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan in a dead heat at 47% each. Vance ultimately won by 6.1 points — a 6.1-point miss.
A couple of 2022 Senate polls also substantially underestimated Democratic strength.
Washington: Trafalgar predicted that Democratic incumbent Sen. Patty Murray would defeat her Republican challenger, Tiffany Smiley, by 1 point. Instead, Murray clobbered Smiley by 14.5 points — a 13.5-point miss.
New Hampshire: A Saint Anselm poll put Republican Don Bolduc 1 point ahead of Democratic incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan. Hassan ultimately won by 9.1 points — a 10.1-point miss.
2020:
Maine: An Emerson poll put Democrat Sara Gideon ahead of Republican Sen. Susan Collins, 48%–42%. Collins stunned everyone by winning the race by 8.6 points — a 14.6-point miss.
Iowa: Likewise, Emerson had Democrat Theresa Greenfield ahead of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, 48%–44%. Ernst won by 6.6 points — a 10.6 points miss.
South Carolina: An East Carolina University poll showed Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham leading Democrat Jaime Harrison, 49%–46%, Graham won by 10.3 points — a 7.3-point miss.
Although none of this guarantees a Republican rebound on Election Day, it does offer ample reason to resist the narrative that the outcome is already settled. GOP voters should take these polls seriously, but rather than surrendering, they should respond by showing up at the ballot box. Turnout will be key.
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Comments
I got out of the prediction business in 2020 when JoeBama stole the electi… er, uh, legitimately won the darn thing with an 80 million ballot dump across the nation at 3 a.m.
Will this be a typical mid-term wipeout for the party in power? I won’t predict.
All I can see is all the JoeBama-ites wetting themselves as they measure for new drapes and carpet in the House so they can commence ‘Impeachment Paloosa’ au festivaal the second the smoke clears on Nov. 4.
We are at war. Prepare accordingly.
Right, CIA squid Elissa Slotkin?
of course b/c they cheat so when lefty wins people will just sigh and go yeah we knew it
For those of you in Rio Linda, voter suppression polls
Operation Demoralize
RHL III Ref 👍
Wouldn’t this backfire? Democrats thinking they’re way ahead might conclude that their vote isn’t needed, and stay home?
And what was the state of polling exactly 10 years ago, in 2016? Hillary in a landslide. Um…. Lies, damned lies, and push polls
Yes, I have also asked this very same question. The two reactions would seem to me to cancel out.
But this cycle, it occurred to me that what doesn’t cancel out is donors’ reaction to the numbers. For example, Paxton is getting no love from the GOP establishment; how many private citizen donors (voters) are sending their benjamins elsewhere on the premise that Paxton is a “lost cause?”
Modern polls are to drive public opinion, not reflect it.
Operation Demoralize is the winning answer. I don’t know who funds most polls but I suspect that like they are funded and staffed by the same type of people that run and staff the legacy media. The legacy media is nothing more than democrat party propaganda and indoctrination.
Republicans often vote on election day and in person. All it takes is a small percentage of otherwise GOP voters to be discouraged enough not to spend their free time driving to election site and stand in line to impact the election. The Dem operatives know most GOP voters have jobs, families and daily obligations so why not try to make them believe voting is a waste of their precious time.
SOD THE POLLS
The polls could be right because of the historical advantage the party out of power has in midterm elections but there are some key differences this cycle.
The GOP has far more money than the Dems and they seem to be spending it in key states.
Musk and other tech titans are spending vast sums for the GOP advertising and ground game.
Turning Point and other organizations have a lot of people on the ground knocking on GOP/conservative/populist voter’s doors to turn out the vote.
Trump has been campaigning vigorously with big rallies across the nation to rally the base to get out and vote.
The midterms are all about turning out the base vote of each party. The GOP has done vastly more than usual to motivate their base. We will find out sometime Tues or Wed if that is enough to beat the odds.
“That monumental miscalculation sent her into an early retirement”
Ambiguous whether this refers to Ann or Kamala.
On second thought, it works equally well both ways.
Generally/very broadly history shows GoP down 3 means we win by 1% or more. Down 4/5 generally means an actual coin flip tie and the end result is under a 1% either way. This year? Lots of ‘social science’ experiments in polling, lots of election dirty trick/shenanigans and lots of questions re the composition of polling samples and the basis for the political weighting in the poll. IMO the polls will once again broadly be off the mark to gauge actual electoral performance among GoP voters. Maybe I’m wrong and Texas will elect Twinkerbell but I doubt it.
Eh, what I always say is that generic polls may give you an idea, but in cycles like this are honestly pretty worthless.
What matters is looking at specific seats getting flipped.
‘Generic Democrat’ being up by 5 points doesn’t mean they win in Maine, with a truly awful candidate following a somehow even worse previous candidate against a long time incumbent.
My sense is that Democrats are going to win a small margin in the House and the GOP keeps the Senate. Which means frankly everything continues as the last 2 years, because the GOP Senate was already refusing to pass House bills anyway.
But as I always say, the last few days has shown The Ceremonial Tightening Of The Polls as the propaganda polls release at least somewhat accurate polls to try and pretend that the race was ‘tightening’.
Texas, for instance, on Oct 12th you can literally see the switch getting flipped and magically Paxton suddenly jumped up 2 points within a week on the RCP average.
You’re going to see a TON of ‘tightening’ when polls are released tomorrow.
I think the tide has definitely turned towards the Republicans, giving them a lift. It might make a difference in close races in the House, but I do think the GOP is likely to hold the Senate. The Dems will probably still get the majority in the House, but probably not as large as they would have liked. It would be perfect if control of the House came down to two races that went into recounts. It would take the wind out of their sails.
I have a hard time believing Talarico is going to win Texas. That said, Dems can absorb a large amount of polling error and still win the Senate.
It’s not only the fake polls that are demoralizing. It’s the people who hate America that are in the polls running for, or already in, office. People like El Sayed, Angie Nixon, Ilhan What’s Her Name, AOC, and so on and so forth. That is demoralizing and the fake polls make it even more so.
I’m saving dozens of polls, stories, and posts, including this one, to be reviewed later in the week.
Ignore all polls (outside of gentlemen’s clubs)
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