12-Day Wind Drought Has German Utility Executives on Edge
In the race to achieve Energiewende (“energy transition”), Germans forgot about dunkelflaute (wind drought/dark calm).
Energiewende, or “energy transition” in English, is Germany’s comprehensive plan to transform its energy system towards a low-carbon, nuclear-free economy. This green-fever-dream includes significantly increasing the share of renewable energy sources while phasing out nuclear power and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
For years, the Germans have religious implemented energiewende. They have been so efficient that wind energy has become the largest source of electricity at 27.2%, overtaking coal at 26.8%.
However, in their rush to achieve “net-zero”, the Germans forgot another of their words: Dunkelflaute (wind drought…literally “dark calm”).
Dunkelflaute typically occurs during winter months, particularly in November, December, and January. And it appears that the projection is for slowing wind speeds over the next few decades, too.
During these periods, wind turbines and solar panels produce little or no energy. Germany has tried various kinds of battery storage to get through the annual dunkelflaute, but the only thing that has really bailed out their power grid is nuclear, and burning more coal and natural gas
Germany and Northern Europe have been experiencing a variation of dunkelflaute, called “wind droughts,” for the last few years, with wind speeds falling 15% or more in many regions. This has been a gradual trend since 1978. The projections for wind drought continue to get worse. Even the IPCC is forecasting slowing winds for the coming decades, saying average annual wind speeds could drop by up to 10% by 2100.
A single event usually lasts up to 24 hours, with 2-10 events occurring per year, totaling 50 to 150 hours annually.
Now a 12-day dunkelflaute that began in early November has German energy executives deeply concerned.
German utility execs who champion the Energiewende are starting to panic after this month's shocking 12-day wind drought.
RWE CEO Markus Krebber posted a desperate plea for more "secure" power supplies this morning on LinkedIn.
The situation is coming to a breaking point. https://t.co/8zEtJKQidS pic.twitter.com/Xj9vkIHnyI
— Mark Nelson (@energybants) November 21, 2024
Here is a link to a post that contains the original German version of the LinkedIn plea.
These executives have plenty of reasons to be worried. In 2021, there was a lengthy dunkelflaute in Northern Europe and energy utility profits plummeted.
The 2021 “wind drought” hit Northern Europe particularly hard, especially those countries relying most on wind energy — notably Denmark, which gets 44% of its energy from wind, and Ireland, where the share of wind in total energy production is 31%. Other European countries relying heavily on wind include Portugal (26%), Spain (24%), Germany (23%), the UK (22%), and Sweden (19%). In France, which gets most of its power from nuclear, it’s just 8%.
As a result of the reduction in average wind speed, Danish energy company Ørsted reported a loss of €380 ($366) million. German energy company RWE acknowledged a 38% drop in profits last year, although this was from both its wind and solar units combined.
And while executives worrying about profits is understandable, likely average Germans are worried about simpler things….such has having light and warmth during a major snowstorm.
There are reports that southern Germany is currently experiencing a major winter storm with heavy snowfall. Up to 40cm (15 inches for us Americans) of snow has fallen in parts of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg. The storm is expected to continue into the weekend, with snow drifts and permafrost predicted in higher-altitude regions of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg.
The Global Burden of Disease study attributed 1.9 million deaths globally to non-optimal temperatures in 2021, with cold-related deaths being about four times higher than heat-related ones. If there is not access to light and heat, the conditions for humans becomes suboptimal. So, a wind drought in November is a cause for serious concern on the part of the average German.
There is another group that is likely to be very worried: The German Green Party.
In Germany, the coalition ofthe Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP) disintegrated the day after the American presidential election, primarily due to internal conflicts and dissatisfaction with governance. New elections are slated for February 2025.
Energy expert Robert Bryce offered his analysis of the German developments:
In a result that should surprise no sensible person, the German Green Party is now polling behind a number of other parties at 12%. Extended wind droughts and regional winter storms can reduce those number even farther.
There are currently two energy sources that are cost-effective and readily available at a civilization-worthy level: Nuclear and fossil fuels. Energy executives may wish to consider a new approach: Energieweisheit (energy wisdom). There will be less drought and more profits that way.
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Comments
Wind drought? No problem. THey can just attach pedals to the windmills and have Germans pedal the rotors around for a few days. It will be good exercise that teh Germans need. The government can probably get them to do their work for the state without having to imprison and fine too many.
Of course, migrants in Germany wouldn’t be forced to pedal the wind rotor generators, since that would be torture., and against EU dictats. Germans must pedal to generate electricity so that the migrants have power and can heat their free apartments and use their free computers.
Why, it’s “climate change” of course.
And probably President Trump’s fault too!!
Of course there’s a wind drought, and of course it’s Trump’s fault. Since the election Liberals everywhere have been very, very quiet….
You forgot “racism”, which rounds out the triad of causes of all of our ills (per the left).
Wind Energy is the most expensive form of energy when the wind doesn’t blow.
Solar Energy is the most expensive form of energy every night.
Matt – I concur
LCOE is one of the most deceptive measurements of the cost of electric generation since it only measures the cost of generation from each source type.
It measures total generation / (divided by) total costs. It uses average cost per mw,
It doesnt measure to cost at the high end of production (when the production supply exceeds demand and thus wasted, it doesnt measure the low end of production when it requires excessive reduntancy to produce sufficient electricity,
It doesnt measure, the cost of back up, it doesnt measure the cost of of operating the entire system Which is the correct metric.
No wind for the windmills? That blows.
Don’t quit your day job.
“The German Green Party.” Which is German speak for covered in chill bumps.
Every megawatt of wind requires a megawatt of gas, coal, or nuke. Other than gas turbines i.e. jet engines all of these sources must continue to burn fuel so the can take up the demand when the wind falls off. Unreliables are not worth much.
And now the Germans have figured out why intermittent sources are a bad thing … and people thought Germans were smart
The Germans sent all the smarter guys to the Eastern Front about 80 years ago.
Germany used to have engineers. Lots of engineers. Now they have lots of immigrants.
I cannot laugh at them, Texas invested everything in windmills because of Rick Perry, we closed real power plants and now we have occasional blackouts. The wind doesn’t blow when it’s staggeringly hot!
It’s a stupid plan from the start to rely on the unreliable.
I am in Texas – The feb 2021 freeze is a great example of the limitations of Wind. Electric generation from Gas dropped 35% for approximately 36 hours and a 20% drop for another 18-20 hours, a total of approx 55-60 hours (2.5 days). This drop was confined to ERCOT (Texas).
At the same time, electric generation from Wind dropped approx 90% for 50 hours and dropped by approximate 65-70% for another 120 hours and another 50% for 3 more days. A total of approx 10-11 days. This drop occured across the entire north american continent – it was not confined to just Texas – but I repeat – across the entire north american continent.
Also worth noting – electric generation from solar averages around 25-30% of capacity for an entire year, though the winter months, Nov, Dec, Jan & Feb the electric generation from solar averages approximately 8-10% and much less the further north for obvious reasons.
So marc jacobson – Tell us again how much back up storage is required for your 100% renewable scheme.
The Netherlands maintain a few of their original wooden windmills to show to school children and tourists. I met an 8th generation miller whose job it is now to maintain the mills. They no longer serve their original purpose of pumping water to keep the reclaimed lands dry. I was struck by a comment he made. Even in the flat Netherlands on the windy North Sea the wind doesn’t blow for 70 days (19%) of the year. In the old days that meant the water levels started to rise and the farmers and townspeople would look nervously at the millers who could do nothing about it. Perhaps Green Party nutballs should take that tour before building more windmills.
Downvoted by fat fingers – oops. If possible I would give your post +11.
It is astounding that the leaders of a major industrialized economy and global power can act in such a patently and indefensibly stupid, naive and self-destructive manner, with regard to their energy and immigration policies.
One could at least forgive the Germans their fanatical devotion to “green” energy, if they had committed to a massive expansion of nuclear power as a replacement for fossil fuel-derived electrical power, but, in their arrogance, stupidity and self-congratulatory environmental preening, Germany’s leaders stupidly chose to shut down the country’s nuclear power plants — making the country’s reliance on wind and solar even more appallingly stupid and suicidal.
Of course, it’s entirely traditional. You’ve surely heard of leader-hosin’.
Angela Merkel.
Have politicians stand in front of the wind bills to start giving speeches. The windmills can run on any temperature of air including hot air.
One of the things I find hillarious is the unintended consequences of the move to solar and wind electricity generation in Germany. Since they shut down their nuclear power they are forced to fire up their coal plants when their ‘green sources’ can’t meet supply.
Not only do they use coal, but since Germany has no anthracite coal (the hottest and cleanest burning) nor bituminous (ordinary common coal, dirtier and not as hot) they must burn their native “brown” lignite coal.
This is the most polluting and least hot form of coal and it creates literally tons of unburnable “clinker” waste. Burning it is terrible for health, the environment, AND for power generation – the last because you need much more of it and you have much more work because you must process the clinker from the furnaces and dispose of it.
So…I can’t stop laughing – another example of virtue seeking actually making things worse.
So the Germans are power hungry again?
First, you must start with the ludicrous fantasy that change in the climate is driven by carbon dioxide and that humans are responsible for releasing CO2 in quantities that lead to this change.
Second, you label carbon as a “pollutant” and seek to prevent any activity that releases it IN YOUR IMMEDIATE VICINITY, while being indifferent to the same activities elsewhere on the globe.
Third, you decide to make everyone rely on energy sources which by their very nature are intermittent, leading to the necessity of simultaneously using energy sources which are in the hated “fossil” fuel category in order to provide sufficient energy to your populace.
The fact that all these positions are contradictory and free of scientific basis bothers no one in green community.
One can only conclude that those in power actually do seek to see a world depopulated and shivering in the cold and the dark.
Wind droughts in Europe have been a known fact since the middle ages.
I am a retired Electrical Engineer originally from California. I have seen Wind Farms in California in the Altamont Pass. I saw how the Wind Turbines over time have stopped working and the issues that the Wind Farms there killed millions of birds on yearly north-south migrations.
In 96 me and my family was moved to the east coast by my business. Many in me and my wife’s family have left California but some still are in all parts of the state. I have been in various countries around the world setting up sites and in many states and have seen telecom, wireless, and power sites as I have worked to set them up or connect to them.
I do not find Wind Turbines or Wind Farms to be good. The same is with Solar Farms. Both Wind and Solar require more connections and maintenance with less power return plus they do not last as long. A plant of various things such as Coal, Oil, Natural Gas, Nucleal, or Bio-Fuel will last much longer, use less space, need less maintenance, and produce more energy at all times.
One of the defenses Windmills that kill birds is that they kill a lot fewer birds, than cats or birds that fly into buildings.
While that is true – it ignores more complete context.
The number of buildings, homes , etc exceed the number of windmills by at least 10,000x, so of course more birds are going to crash into buildings, etc
the second point is that the vast majority of birds that die flying into buildings are old and sick birds, rarely are those healthy birds. Whereas birds getting chopped up by the windmills are almost always healthy birds.
Why do solar panels stop working without wind? Are there heavy clouds?
This kind of nonsense is all due to the fact that America has pampered Europe since WWII and allowed them to spend their money on these schemes instead of their own defense. They became socialistic and lost the ability to know what was important. Witness Germany’s buying fuel from Russia which is the one country their entire defense is focused on! After Medicare and SS, defense is our largest expense but not for Europe. Trump had to threaten them to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense or we would not come to their aid in war. As usual, progressives NEVER think ahead, it is only now that is important to them.
It’s great to see the useless (self-appointed) “elite” caught by surprise when their stupid ideas blow up.
If only it would renew faster
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