India Election: Modi-Led Alliance Wins Majority

India Election: Modi-Led Alliance Wins Majority

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s right-wing alliance has secured a majority in the Indian elections, winning 293 seats, crossing the 272 thresholds needed to form the government.

Despite securing a historic third term, Modi’s support eroded in some key states. His own Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) got 240 seats, down from 303 in the last election. The ruling Hindu nationalist party will need the support of two regional allies to form the government.

The opposition INDIA alliance, led by Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi, a scion of the Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty, secured 233 seats. The newly formed alliance, which includes Communist and Islamic parties, performed significantly better than media expectations.

The election was marred by controversy, with opposition and mainstream media accusing the prime minister of infusing ‘islamophobia’ in his campaign to win the votes in the Hindu-majority country.

As most of the 640 million votes were counted after a 6-week-long election process, India’s Republic TV reported the outcome Tuesday night:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to form the government for a third consecutive term with the BJP-led NDA getting a majority in the Lok Sabha, notwithstanding losses in three Hindi heartland states after a bitterly fought election.

The Bharatiya Janata Party, whose candidates had contested in the name of Modi, won or was ahead in 240 seats, falling short of the 272 majority mark and needing the support of allies in the party-led National Democratic Alliance(NDA) for government formation, a far cry from the 303 and 282 seats it had won in 2019 and 2014 respectively to have a majority on its own.

With support from BJP’s key allies N Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), which were leading or winning 16 and 12 seats in Andhra Pradesh and Bihar respectively, and other alliance partners, the NDA crossed the halfway mark and appeared to be on course to bag around 290 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. The TDP also swept the assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh dislodging YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP.

Energy, Defense: India’s Achilles’ Heel

Despite impressive economic growth under Modi, India still reels under the effects of socialist mismanagement and corruption inflicted on the country since independence from Britain in 1947.

During Modi’s term estimated 250 million Indians have been lifted out of poverty, government statistics say. However, the country still suffers high unemployment rates, particularly among youth.

With Modi at the helm, India moved from the 10th largest to the world’s 5th biggest economy, overtaking the UK in 2022.

“The economy is growing by 7% and more than 500 million Indians have opened bank accounts during his tenure,” the Associate News noted. Modi “has also poured billions of dollars into the country’s creaky infrastructure to lure investment, and notably streamlined its vast welfare program, which serves around 60% of the population,” the news agency added.

India is deeply dependent on Russia for its energy and defense requirements. With Russia turning into China’s junior partner on the world stage, India cannot rely on Moscow for military and energy supplies in case of an armed conflict with Beijing.

Defense estimates show that nearly 60 percent of India’s military equipment comes from Russia. Since the start of the Ukraine war in early 2022, India has increased its dependence on Russian oil and gas imports. In April 2024, “Russia accounted for 40.3 per cent of the total … crude oil” imports, the Indian Express newspaper reported.

U.S.-India ties under Modi

The U.S. has emerged as India’s major commercial and geopolitical partner since President George W. Bush renewed ties between the two countries in the early 2000s. Relations have flourished since Modi took office in 2014.

In 2021 and 2022, Washington was India’s biggest trading partner, only to be overtaken by China in 2023. The U.S.-India bilateral trade was at $118.28 billion in 2023-24, with a trade surplus of $36.74 (in favor of Washington). The trade balance shifted around 2019 after President Donald Trump vowed to act against trade barriers on U.S. goods and services in India.

Under Trump’s watch, New Delhi joined the U.S.-led Asia-Pacific alliance revived to serve as a counterweight to China. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue initiative, or the “Quad,” is a four-nation coalition comprising the U.S., Australia, Japan and India. The alliance has created a framework for security cooperation, including joint defense exercises and access to each other’s military bases.

Modi’s India: A Bulwark against China’s expansionism

India sees China as the biggest threat to its national security. Beijing refuses to accept the 2100-mile shared border and has clashed several times with New Delhi since the China-India war of 1962. In June 2022, at least 20 Indian soldiers were killed by Chinese troops in a border clash in the Himalayan region.

India is building border and maritime defenses to meet the Chinese military threat. In 2022, India launched its first homemade aircraft carrier. Earlier this year, New Delhi moved 100,000 troops from the Western border with Pakistan to the Chinese frontier amid growing military provocations.

In a June 4 article, the U.S, journal Foreign Affairs described the China-India border as “one of the world’s most dangerous flash points.”

“In 2020, clashes at the border left over 20 soldiers dead, marking the most significant fighting between China and India since the two countries fought a war in 1962,” the journal noted. “Tensions at the roof of the world have persisted ever since. In the last four years, both sides have sought to build up infrastructure and position yet more troops along the border.”

‘Islamophobia’ ploy and the Modi Derangement Syndrome

The charges of ‘Islamophobia’ arose when Modi, in a campaign speech, warned of illegal Muslim immigration and its threat to India’s demography and economic wellbeing.

The comments triggered a slew of anti-Modi articles in the Western media. “Modi Calls Muslims ‘Infiltrators’ Who Would Take India’s Wealth,” The New York Times suggested on April 22.

“Islamophobia isn’t new to India,” the NYT claimed in a subsequent op-ed on May 26. “But under Mr. Modi’s right-wing leadership, hatred of Muslims has effectively become state policy.”

The Times magazine ran a hit piece titled: “A Modi Win Will Only Mean More Trouble for Indian Muslims.” During the “political campaign of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP has leaned into anti-Muslim sentiment, progressively making Islamophobia one of the defining features of this election,” the magazine claimed.

At the rally, Modi “referred to the 200 million Indian Muslim population as ‘infiltrators,'” the Times asserted. “Prime Minister also accused the opposition Congress party of planning to distribute the country’s wealth to Muslims,” the magazine wrote.

“Modi and ruling party embrace Islamophobic rhetoric,” CNN complained last week. “India’s 200 million Muslims are the largest minority group in the country. Anti-Muslim hate speech has surged in the country since the BJP came to power in 2014,” the news network added.

The Washington Post accused the Modi government of sponsoring legislation that will provide special protection for Hindu, Sikh, Christian, and other non-Muslim minorities fleeing religious prosecution in neighboring Muslim countries. “India to implement asylum law that excludes Muslims, as election nears,” the newspaper reported in early May.

The proposed law “applies to asylum claims filed by Hindus, Sikhs, Parsis, Buddhists, Jains and Christians from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh who fled to Hindu-majority India before 2015 — but not Muslims, who make up a majority in the three countries,” the WaPo added.

With Modi winning the election, the fearmongering continues. The British daily Independent explained to its readers, ‘Why a third term for Modi could be ‘catastrophic’ for India’s 200 million Muslims.’

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