Florida Democratic Voter Registrations Down Since 2016
This could affect the race between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson for the Senate.
Two weeks before Florida’s primary day, Marc Caputo at Politico has some data that could dampen the hopes of the Democrat Party to gain wins in the swing state.
The state’s elections division shows Democratic voter registration in Florida fell by almost two points since 2016 while Republican voter registration remained steady.
Since 2016, the Democrats hoped for a rise in Hispanic and younger voters, especially after the tragic Parkland school shooting. Caputo noted that analysis from TargetSmart insisted “how youth voters are surging,” yet there is no comparison to 2014 data.
The analysis has no comparison to 2014 data (the last midterm), so we really have no idea if these numbers are significant for this midterm https://t.co/ArHuB82bOh
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) July 20, 2018
Caputo found the information and even then it seems a little lackluster for the Democrats:
According to an analysis last month, performed for POLITICO by [political science professor Daniel] Smith, the University of Florida professor, and the Republican-leaning Associated Industries of Florida, the net growth in voters ages 18-29 since the Parkland massacre was 5 percent, while the overall voter registration rolls grew 10 percent. A spokesman for the students said they had no numbers concerning how many voters they registered on their recent bus tour in Florida.
Spin for their lives.
So about those breathless accounts of youth voters surging in FL. After the Feb. 14 Parkland massacre, 66,726 were added to the rolls. In 2014, it was 63,306. Net growth: 3,420, or 5% as overall voter rolls grew 10%. https://t.co/R7WpwWR2UG pic.twitter.com/9uyAlQAAjV
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) July 24, 2018
Even Matt Isbell, a top data analyst for the Democrats, doesn’t “see a significant boom in voter registrations by young people after the students from Parkland captured the nation’s attention following the massacre at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School.”
Hurricane Maria brought “tens of thousands” of Puerto Ricans to Florida, but active Hispanic voters is at 16%, which is basically the same as 2016. The data shows that Hispanics make up 17% of the registered voters in Florida, which is a 1% jump from 2016. The party lost black voters by 1% in that same time frame and now sits at 27%.
From Politico:
For this election, the percentage of active registered Democrats is down by nearly 2 percentage points compared with 2016, according to Florida Division of Elections data published Sunday for the primary. Because Florida doesn’t allow last-minute voter registration, the figures are final.
Some Democrats are worried, but they won’t say so publicly. They haven’t occupied the governor’s mansion in 20 years, and the only statewide elected Democrat, Sen. Bill Nelson, who is seeking reelection, is slightly trailing Gov. Rick Scott in recent polls as the Republican has unloaded on him in a broad TV ad campaign.
“None of us will admit this publicly, but we’re worried. Where’s the blue wave?” a Democratic consultant tied to a major Florida campaign said about Florida‘s 2018 election. “The party has no money. The Republicans do. … But, thankfully, Republicans have Trump, and he’s a disaster when the elections are close. And this election will be close.”
Let’s look at the race between Nelson and Scott. Nelson has a 44-41 percent lead among Latino voters, but another “poll of 400 Florida Hispanics, commissioned by a coalition of Democratic-leaning Latino outreach groups, showed that Scott topped Nelson among Cuban-American voters, who tend to vote Republican, by 24 percentage points” while “Nelson’s advantage over Scott among Puerto Ricans, who tend to vote Democrat, was smaller: 7 points.”
58% of the Hispanic voters “said Trump hasn’t done enough to help welcome Puerto Ricans to Florida after Hurricane Maria.” However, their tone changed when it came to Scott:
When it comes to Scott, 41 percent of respondents said he has done enough to welcome Puerto Ricans to the state, compared to 33 percent who say Nelson had done enough.
Scott made inroads with the Boricua community soon after Hurricane Maria devastated the island. He opened welcome centers in Florida for evacuees, visited them frequently, stood by Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rosselló, advertised in Spanish and snared the endorsement of the island’s secretary of state and its nonvoting member of Congress.
Since he announced his campaign, Scott immediately targeted the Hispanic community by setting up a campaign website in Spanish and sending ads in Spanish. He also started to learn the language and accepted interviews with the Spanish-language media in Florida.
A Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy poll on July 31 shows Scott leads Nelson overall, 47 to 44 percent and 9 percent undecided.
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Comments
Please, PLEASE may we finally be rid of that insufferable ass Bill Nelson. He should have been drummed out last time, but apparently Ogabe’s coattails saved him.
Trump got 49% in 2016. The med pot constitutional amendment got 71%. Don’t be complacent.
While a lower number of Democrats registered in Florida may seem like a good thing, here in my county there has been concerted efforts by the Democrats to register as Republicans.
As the primaries are done by party, what the Democrats are doing is by registering as Republicans, they can vote in the Republican primaries and vote for the weaker of the Republicans running.
There have even been editorials and letters to the editors saying that people should register Republican (either initially or change party association.)
As a winter Floridian I find this to be quite a stretch. I can’t believe a Dem organization would encourage anyone to sign up with the GOP for any reason. There are many offices to be voted on, and voting for the weakest candidate for some in the opposing party means forgoing a chance to vote for the best candidate in one’s own party. The Dems need every registration for bragging rights, and it looks like they’re losing those too. Could you tell us which county you’re talking about?
The only time I can remember a concerted effort to do this was in Pennsylvania in 2004 when large numbers of Dems temporarily signed up with the GOP to vote for Arlen Specter, then challenged by Pat Toomey, who now holds that seat.
Closed primaries with party registration, such as those in PA, NY, and FL, raise the cost of crossing over. That’s a good thing, because it protects the integrity of the party’s ability to choose its candidates without interference.
I never have, and never will, voted for Bill Nelson. To my mind, he exemplifies the crooked southern politician.
OTOH, I will NOT vote for Rick Scott, because he signed those unconstitutional gun control bills. At least with Nelson, we knew we had an enemy of the people. Scott blindsided us by voting against the people and for BIG Government. I cannot trust him as a Senator.
I wonder how many of the 18-20 year olds are upset at their loss of the Right to Bear Arms?
Sadly, it was a Republican Governor who signed that after the Republican Legislature passed it.
Voting in the Republican Primaries is important!
Progressive Republicans are worse that Progressive Democrats, because Progressive Democrats don’t pretend to be Conservative during Primaries and then stab Conservatives in the back the rest of the time!
CaptTee and Ol’ Jim, I am as appalled as you are about Scott pandering to the gun control idiots, just as I was hopping mad about Rubio going to DC and teaming up with Chucky Schumer to stab us in the back on immigration as his very first official act. But even given that, this is one of those times to hold your nose. A vote “not for Scott” is effectively the same as a vote for Nelson. And which of those two is the lesser evil? Which has a better chance of confirming conservative judges nominated by Trump? If the Left gets their way, it will be judges that take away our 2A rights without a single legislative action. It’s too important to give away Senate seats to the Dems. We’re at the nut cutting right now with Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh!! Imagine now if/when Trump has a chance to replace RBG…
I am seriously conservative but see no difference between these two wind-driven clowns.