Shock Loss For DSA Candidate Hong in Wisconsin Dem Governor’s Primary

Shock Loss For DSA Candidate Hong in Wisconsin Dem Governor’s Primary

In what is surely one of the most astounding polling misses of the 2026 primary season, Wisconsin Assembly member Francesca Hong’s commanding 20-point lead over Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley in the state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary collapsed entirely once the voters weighed in.

Shortly before 4 a.m. E.T. Wednesday,  The Associated Press called the race for Crowley. At that point, with more than 95% of the vote counted, he led Hong by 3,279 votes out of nearly 789,000 ballots cast. The New York Times had Crowley at 39.78%, Hong at 39.37%, and state Sen. Kelda Roys at 7.49%.

WASHINGTON (AP) — David Crowley wins Democratic nomination for governor in Wisconsin. #APRaceCall at 3:34 a.m. EDT. https://t.co/TS3eIpQI5W

— AP Race Calls (@AP_RaceCalls) August 12, 2026

Few races this primary season have seen as many twists and turns as this one.

In early July, Crowley, seeing no path to victory, suspended his campaign and endorsed Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez.

Rodriguez withdrew from the race on July 17 after her campaign was rocked by serious financial reporting problems. It was revealed that the campaign had hundreds of thousands of dollars less cash on hand than previously believed.

One day later, after securing the endorsement of Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, Crowley reentered the race.

According to The Associated Press, Evers had initially declined to endorse a candidate in the primary. His subsequent decision to throw his support behind Crowley likely reflected growing concern among the Democratic establishment that the uber progressive Hong could win the party’s nomination only to lose the general election.

Crowley and Evers have since barnstormed the state together, and clearly, their efforts have paid off.

The early frontrunner, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, suspended his campaign on July 30, the day that The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel revealed “it was investigating allegations that Barnes had leveraged his role within the state Democratic party to have sexual encounters with young women.”

The far-left Hong watched what had been a narrow lead in early July balloon to roughly 20 points by the end of the month. Her dramatic surge in the polls brought intense scrutiny to her campaign, her past, and some of her more extreme positions.

Hong, a member of the legislature’s Socialist Caucus, has spent the past few weeks trying to distance herself from some of her most radical views. But digital footprints are stubborn things.

Additionally, over the weekend, X user @SwannMarcus89 alleged that big spending by Republican political action committees may have been at least partially responsible for Hong’s spike in the polls throughout the month of July. Swann explains how he arrived at that conclusion in the post below.

So I discovered something interesting today.

I keep hearing Francesca Hong is running some innovative campaign where she isn’t spending money on TV and it’s working like a charm. This confused me because I have family in Wisconsin and I know for a fact there are tons of…

— Swann Marcus (@SwannMarcus89) August 8, 2026

Crowley’s victory complicates matters for Republican gubernatorial nominee Tom Tiffany. Hong was widely viewed as the easier opponent to beat. In a purple state like Wisconsin, her radical worldview was expected to be a tough sell among independent voters and even some Democrats.

Ahead of the primary, the RealClearPolitics polling average of head-to-head matchups with Hong showed Tiffany leading by 1.7 points. Against Crowley, however, Tiffany trailed by 2 points.

The shift becomes even more apparent when looking at Polymarket’s odds on which party is likely to win the governorship in November. On Monday, when Hong was still widely expected to capture the Democratic nomination, Republicans were given a 59.5% chance of winning the general election, compared with 41.5% for Democrats.

By early Wednesday morning, the picture had completely changed. With Crowley emerging as the Democratic nominee, the odds had swung sharply in the opposite direction: Democrats’ chances had surged to 69.5%, while Republicans’ had plunged to just 29%.

[Note: Polymarket odds can be viewed by scrolling down on the RCP page for this race.]

Crowley’s victory is a remarkable political resurrection and great news for Wisconsin Democrats. Just one month ago, Crowley saw so little hope of winning the nomination that he dropped out of the race. He returned only after Rodriguez’s campaign imploded. With a hearty endorsement from the governor, he proceeded to defeat a candidate who, according to the polls, had opened up a seemingly insurmountable lead.

For Republicans, however, Hong’s defeat changes the complexion of the general election considerably. Tiffany will no longer face a socialist opponent carrying a long record of controversial positions in a closely divided state. Instead, he will face Crowley, a more conventional Democrat who has already demonstrated an ability to defy expectations. The battle for Wisconsin’s governorship just became a very different race.

This race offered another reminder that voters — not pollsters, pundits, or prediction markets — ultimately decide elections.

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