Ahead of the August 11 special Republican Senate primary in South Carolina, Sen. Darline Graham — appointed to complete the term of her late brother, former Sen. Lindsey Graham, after his sudden death last month — joined her opponents on the debate stage Monday night.
While nine Republicans qualified for the ballot, five of them participated in the debate. Others included Reps. Ralph Norman and Russell Fry; former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, and businessman Mark Lynch, who lost the Senate primary to Sen. Lindsey Graham in June by nearly 30 points.
Whoever prevails, the Republican nominee will head into the general election with a substantial advantage over Democratic nominee Annie Andrews in deep-red South Carolina.
An Emerson poll released ahead of the debate showed Norman leading the Republican primary with 22% support. Graham was close behind at 19%, followed by Fry at 12% and Sanford at 11%.
Most notably, 25% of respondents remained undecided, while 88% said a candidate debate ahead of the special election was important. Taken together, those findings suggest many voters planned to use the debate to help inform their decision.
In interviews with Jewish Insider following the debate, six Republican campaign operatives and lawmakers expressed broad skepticism that Graham will reach the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff. The consensus is that she is struggling to win a majority of support from Republican primary voters.
However, they do believe she will be one of the two candidates to advance to the August 25 runoff.
Pointing out that Graham is new to public office, still finding her footing, and is largely unknown to many voters, the group questioned whether President Donald Trump’s endorsement would be enough to propel her to victory.
Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and a former Republican National Committee communications director, told JI:
The sense that this is going to go to a runoff seems pretty clear. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.Ultimately, it’s going to be a question of what Republican voters in South Carolina want to do and how they view the new Sen. Graham. You can’t really factor in what she’s done yet, but you know what she says she’s going to do. She doesn’t have a high name ID, although that is increasing every day, whereas the others who are running have much higher name ID and not just necessarily in their districts.
According to JI, Republicans are concerned about Graham’s ability “to develop a full policy platform and hit the campaign trail as she mourns her brother’s recent death.”
A current Republican senator, who spoke to JI on the condition of anonymity, weighed in:
It’s being said and unsaid by a lot of people on Capitol Hill right now. Up to this point, most people here have been more concerned about her personally than figuring out her political philosophy, asking if it’s fair to her to put her in this situation. This has got so many consequences. I’ve been very concerned about it. The people who express concern the most are still mainly worried about her personally, which is heartwarming, but the stakes are also very high.
A GOP campaign source emphasized voters’ unfamiliarity with Graham, her positions on the issues and her lack of a proven record. “Love them or hate them, folks know what Ralph and Russell’s records look like. Love them or hate them, you know where they stand. Darline is largely an unknown.”
While William F. Buckley once famously said he’d “rather be governed by the first 2000 people in the Boston phone book than the entire faculty of Harvard,” there is something to be said for experience and familiarity.
Republicans also questioned Darline Graham’s fundraising ability.
Dr. Annie Andrews (the Democratic nominee) actually outraised Lindsey Graham in the first two quarters of 2026.
JI noted that despite Andrews’ fundraising success, “national Democrats declined to commit resources to the race against Graham, which the Cook Political Report continues to rate as solid Republican even after his death.”
But it remains possible that, in light of Graham’s death and the current uncertainty around selecting a new GOP nominee, Democrats could decide that victory is possible and that the party should commit resources to the race.
[Convinced that Democratic nominee Jaime Harrison could topple Graham in 2020, out-of-state money poured into the state, making it one of the most expensive congressional races in U.S. history. In the end, however, Graham defeated Harrison by more than 10 points.]
Finally, Republicans are concerned that if this primary advances to a runoff — which many think will be the case — opponents will be afraid to take aim at Darline Graham, given that she just lost her brother.
A senior GOP campaign official told JI:
She’s still grieving. Nobody wants to be seen hitting someone whose brother literally just died — and then was vaulted into a very public, very national spotlight — but at some point the gloves are gonna have to come off at least somewhat.
A senator echoed that sentiment, saying, “If they get to a runoff, at that point, it is a whole new ball game and she’s no longer a grieving sister. She becomes a semi-incumbent obstacle to whoever wants to win.”
Regarding Trump’s endorsement, Heye noted, “Not everything that happens in a Republican primary is about Donald Trump. His endorsement is always a boost, but that’s it.”
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