Trump-Backed Challenger Leads Thomas Massie in New GOP Primary Poll
That marks a striking reversal from an earlier April 6–7 survey by Quantus, which showed Massie leading Gallrein by 9 points.
Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie has been a thorn in President Donald Trump’s side for years. Often one of the few Republicans willing to break ranks with Trump on major legislation, Massie has repeatedly drawn the president’s ire in public clashes over policy and spending. One of the most notable flashpoints came in 2025, when Massie opposed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”
The final rupture came when Massie publicly accused the Justice Department of withholding the Epstein files that could embarrass Trump. Massie called for the full release of the documents, arguing, “We can’t avoid justice just to avoid embarrassment for some very powerful men.”
Given their long-running feud, few were surprised when Trump pushed for a primary challenge against Massie ahead of Kentucky’s upcoming congressional primary.
The libertarian-leaning Massie, now serving his seventh term in Congress, has historically cruised to reelection, winning each of his races by comfortable margins and never receiving less than 60% of the vote. Until recently, he appeared poised to do the same in his current primary contest against Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein.
But a newly released survey from right-leaning pollster Quantus Insights has cast some doubt on that assumption.
The survey of 908 likely voters, conducted May 11–12, found Gallrein leading Massie by 5.2 points, 48.3% to 43.1%. When respondents who leaned toward a candidate were included, Gallrein’s advantage widened to 7.7 points, 52.8% to 45.1%.
That marks a striking reversal from an earlier April 6–7 survey by Quantus, which showed Massie leading Gallrein by 9 points.
Of the three polls currently included in the RealClearPolitics average for this race, two were conducted by Quantus. The third, an April 6–7 poll from Big Data Poll, showed Massie ahead by 4 points.
Among voters who were not completely sure which candidate they would choose, Quantus found that 52.4% said they leaned toward Gallrein, 23.4% leaned toward Massie, and 24.1% were “still completely undecided.”
The pollster noted that “Gallrein is winning the leaner pool by more than two-to-one, moving him above 50% when firm support and leaners are combined.”
Quantus’ Key Takeaway:
Massie retains a durable base of support, but Gallrein leads on the initial ballot and strengthens his position once leaners are allocated. In a nationalized Republican primary shaped by Trump’s endorsement, outside spending, and Massie’s independent brand, Gallrein enters the final stretch with the advantage.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | May 11–12, 2026
Kentucky's CD4 Republican primary has become one of the most closely watched House primaries in the country, and our latest survey finds Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein leading Rep. Thomas Massie.
📊 Kentucky CD4 GOP Primary
🔴 Ed… pic.twitter.com/eY4cvRqUnR— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) May 13, 2026
Axios reported on Monday that this race has become the most expensive U.S. House primary in history. According to AdImpact, as of Monday, with still a week to go, ad spending had already topped $25.6 million.
The outlet also claims it’s one of the nastiest primaries ever:
The race has turned into an all-out war of inflammatory accusations, savage insults and AI deepfakes.
- One pro-Gallrein super PAC ad features an AI-generated Massie dining and holding hands with Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), accusing him of being in a “throuple” and “cheating with ‘The Squad’ on the America First movement.”
- Pro-Massie groups have attempted to brutally undermine Gallrein’s MAGA credentials, labeling him “woke Eddie” and depicting the retired Navy SEAL in one AI-generated ad as a soldier abandoning Trump on a battlefield.
- Both candidates have attacked each other as being insufficiently conservative on a wide range of social issues, including diversity, equity and inclusion, transgender rights, Black Lives Matter, and immigration.
We’ll find out next week whether Trump’s endorsement is enough to carry Gallrein across the finish line. Trump’s influence certainly made a difference for six Republican Indiana Senate incumbents who lost their primaries after voting against redistricting legislation last December.
In a separate development, Massie’s former girlfriend has accused him of offering her hush money to drop a wrongful termination complaint against Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), for whom she briefly worked. Axios first reported the allegations.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.
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Comments
Massie has a lengthy history of being a Jew hater and I’d be happy to see him gone.
Literally ANY thread on any public forum is instantly overwhelmed with the Massholes spamming LOL YOU JUST HATE HIM CAUSE HE WON’T TAKE THAT DIRTY JEW AIPAC MONEY LOL HE ONLY ONE NOT OWNED BY ISRAEL
He’s a scumbag that tried to run AI ads with him and an elephant with Trump’s hair trying to pretend that Trump supported him, that’s what he was reduced to.
He’s a piece of trash and I’m going to celebrate when he’s finally gone.
Gone for good. They should do what they did to his wife
Lets also remember his history of playing on team Democrat for example when he forced Trump to restore a blue state tax cut, or his non-stop conspiracy theory pushing against the president.
Every time our side has needed him he has played on team Democrat.
Exactly, he has never been on team America, ever single time there was a vote for something that was MAGA, that would have been good for the country, he voted with the Democrats against it. Guy was not just anti MAGA, not just anti Trump, he was simply anti America, and that can’t be tolerated.
Massie is not a “Jew hater”. Massie has been consistent on all foreign aid no matter the country. In fact, I’m not sure I can name any issue that he hasn’t been consistent on. I disagree with some of his views, disagree with others but the break for me is that Epstein crap. Massie and a ton of people need to get out of DC.
I’m afraid he is a Jew-hater.
Not for opposing foreign aid. That’s not an antisemitic position. I think a better case can be made for aid to Israel than for almost all other foreign aid, but I also think Israel would be better off without the US money spigot. As a zionist I would rather see the aid ended.
But there have been too many other signs. Not just his unprincipled attacks on AIPAC, though those should be enough.
Israel might not need usa money but if its there its there
israeli weapons technology is some of the most envied in the world and many countries
QUIETLY purchase from them
Massie’s problem with AIPAC goes directly towards his isolationist stance on foreign aid. He sees them as a foreign lobbying group that pressures American for money and doesn’t like it. I disagree with him but to label him anti semetic because he thinks the US should stay out of all “foreign entanglements” is a stretch. Again, in the current world I disagree with him
Sorry. He is what he is and doesn’t really even try that hard to hide it:
The question is does he have any problems with any other lobbying groups similar to AIPAC?
AIPAC is a group of Americans. It is not an Israeli group and has never been one. From that perspective it’s like any other lobbying group except its focus is Israeli instead of guns or abortion or anything else.
No. His criticisms of AIPAC are antisemitic. His branding it as a foreign group, his insistence that they are agents of a foreign country, is not motivated by simple ignorance; he has been informed of the truth many times, so why would he reject it? The most reasonable explanation is that he hates and lies about AIPAC because most of its members are Jews.
Wanting to end all foreign aid is not antisemitic. Wanting to stay out of the world’s affairs is morally dubious — I call it the Kitty Genovese theory of foreign affairs — but it’s not antisemitic.
“In a separate development, Massie’s former girlfriend has accused him of offering her hush money”
After reading that article at Axios, I was struck by how many different people had done so many unfair things to that girlfriend. I began to wonder if there could be a common factor explaining all of them.
“Always believe the women.”
The Massie deviant sexual behavior accusations story is ugly:
https://redstatenation.com/new-thomas-massie-files-ex-girlfriend-cynthia-west-exposes-him-as-a-sexual-deviant-with-disturbing-creepy-details-video/
Accusations that just happen to drop a week or two before an election. Color me a skeptic on this.
Yes. I wouldn’t put much credit in these allegations even if he were a Democrat.
Man loses wife of 35 years and gets remarried almost immediately. Never heard that story before. Hell, my neighbor lost his wife of 50 years and within 1 year married a woman from his church.
Given how democrats weaponize these things gs I wouldn’t give a single democrat the benefit of the doubt.
In the video you linked she claims Massie offered her $5000 of “cow money” for her silence. The interviewer asked what she means by “cow money”. She said he raises cows and sells them. The interviewer then says something to the effect of ‘so it’s money not reported as income?’ She replies yes.
How can she possibly know whether he’s reported cattle sales as income or not? Assuming the clip has not been edited, for some reason the interviewer fails to follow up and ask how she knows that.
IMO, her veracity is discredited by that admission.
The polarization is already starting.
(And that from a blogger who is NOT fond of libertarians.)
And now Rand Paul’s son got drunk and came out as an antisemite, a homophobe, and an all-around bigot. So he announced that he has a drinking problem. That’s like reacting to a diagnosis of cancer by swearing off X-rays.
In vino, veritas.
The funny thing was that Paul Jr somehow had the idea that Mike Lawler is a Jew.
They’re everywhere.
Yeah, that was kinda odd. I wouldn’t judge Rand by his kid, though. Quite a number of parents are in his shoes. Kids go sideways and there is nothing a parent can do
Stuff like this it’s not just what the leftist media is saying, but what it ISN’T saying.
Normally a close race with a politician as…. ‘visible’ as Massie would be moderately big news. But not a single network actually wants to talk about it, and Quantas is apparently THE ONLY polling firm conducting polls.
Almost like they all know he’s losing badly, but don’t want people to know about it because that helps Trump.
Massie has the gall to attack ED Gallrein — a SEAL Team 6 combat veteran. Claiming that Gallrein is gaming his 100 percent VA disability rating because he performs demanding farm work on his family’s operation. What has Massie done for the country besides having extreme TDS.
Massy may want to make sure he has REALLY good security.
seal team sticks close and accidents happen every day.
maga
for the sake of the republic
Massie has had a good run. He’s done a ton of good in trying, often successfully, to deliver transparency to the usual DC establishment, corporatist, Acela corridor status quo. Many of those folks hate his guts, especially a few of the most effective lobbying outfits and ton of DC bureaucracy/grifters. Lots of money pouring into this little ol HoR primary contest. It might be illuminating to know the source and the major individual donors (if any) providing it to give some.context about their political agenda (if any)…assuming they haven’t routed the donations through a multitude of PACs in a series of transactions to attempt to make it hard to figure out the sources. Politics ain’t beanbag.
He may yet survive the onslaught of bucking Trump over the continuing large budget deficit as well as tens of millions spent against him in a primary. I would hope that we could see similar energy, effort and coordination to primary a 1/2 dozen rino Senators and 10-12 HoR members who have far worse voting records. Frankly, as far as I can tell the major issues for opponents of Massie is his desire to cut Federal spending, pare back the National debt, end ALL foreign aid for EVERY Nation, stop implementation of the vehicle ‘kill switch’, roll back Patriot Act nonsense, reform/restrict FISA CT and reform the reporting/categorization of what constitutes lobbying for the benefit of Foreign Nations under FARA.
He’s done way more damage than good.
Bro.
The New York Times and freaking RO KHANNA are out there shilling for him to get re-elected now.
The Democrats LOVE Massie, and it’s not because he’s ‘delivering transparency to the usual DC establishment’, and at this point its delusional to say so.
Here’s a good post about Massie.
Will the Real Thomas Massie Please Stand Up – Insurrection Barbie
https://x.com/DefiyantlyFree/status/2054349667417161922?s=20
Excellent article. Thank you for sharing.