It’s been quite some time since we covered the Keystone XL Pipeline, a proposed extension of the existing Keystone Pipeline System designed to transport crude oil from Alberta, Canada, to Nebraska.
The project’s goal was to expand the pipeline system’s capacity by allowing the transport of up to 830,000 barrels of oil per day over a distance of approximately 1,210 miles. The aim was to provide a more direct route for Canadian oil, and provisions were included for adding American-produced oil from the Bakken formation in Montana and North Dakota.
The last time we reported on this Keystone XL, President Donald Trump was promising to revive the project “on day one.”
Last fall, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney raised the prospect of reviving the pipeline project during his recent White House visit with Trump.
The project has now moved another step toward starting. Trump recently signed an order granting a cross-border permit to revive parts of the Keystone XL pipeline to transport Canadian oil to Guernsey, Wyoming.
The pipeline, proposed by Canadian pipeline company South Bow (SOBO.TO), opens new tab and its U.S. partner Bridger Pipeline, could increase Canada’s crude exports to the U.S. by more than 12% if it goes ahead. A presidential permit was required for the project to proceed.The new proposal involves a different route through the U.S. than the previous Keystone XL project, which was canceled by former President Joe Biden in 2021 after years of Indigenous and environmental opposition.”Slightly different than the last administration,” Trump said at a White House event, referring to his administration’s attitude towards crude oil infrastructure. “They wouldn’t sign a pipeline deal, and we have pipelines going up.”But the project will use some of the previously built pipe on the Canadian side, where Keystone XL is already fully permitted. South Bow was spun off by former Keystone XL proponent TC Energy in 2024 to take over its oil pipeline business. Approximately 150 km (93 miles) of pipe has been built in Canada and sitting idle since Keystone XL’s cancellation.
The footprint of this pipeline is a little different than that envisioned for the Keystone XL. It appears the goal of the firms involved in this project is to complete construction before Trump’s term ends.
Sometimes called “Keystone Light,” the Bridger Pipeline Expansion would not cross any Native American reservations. More than 70% would be built within existing pipeline corridors and 80% on private land, Bridger Pipeline LLC said in a statement.The Casper, Wyoming-based company operates more than 3,700 miles (5,950 kilometers) of gathering and transmission oil pipelines in the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana and the Powder River Basin of Wyoming.A subsidiary of True Companies, Bridger Pipeline could avoid a reversal by a future administration if it’s able to complete its project before Trump leaves office. It hopes to start construction in the fall of 2027 and finish it by late 2028 or early 2029, Bridger spokesperson Bill Salvin said.It is being reported that oil companies have committed to move at least 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), or about 72 per cent of the pipeline’s initial capacity of 550,000 bpd.
Canadian oil producers are thrilled, as their ability to move product has been stifled by capacity constraints.
Rival pipeline operators are also looking to expand capacity on existing pipelines.
Last fall, Enbridge [ENB-T ] approved expansions for its Mainline and Flanagan South pipelines, which will allow an additional 150,000 bpd of Canadian heavy oil to move to the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast.
That additional capacity is expected to come online in 2027, and the company is also gauging commercial interest in a second phase of its Mainline expansion, which it has said could be in service in 2028 and would add another 250,000 bpd of capacity.
The Trans Mountain pipeline, running from Alberta to Canada’s west coast for export to the U.S. West Coast and Asia, is also planning a series of enhancements that could increase its capacity by 360,000 bpd.
The bottom line: While Keystone XL’s original vision was killed off by Biden’s climate virtue-signaling, market realities, Canadian persistence, and Trump’s energy priorities have combined to resurrect its core purpose as “Keystone Light”.
Ultimately, this project is leaner, faster, and more litigation-resistant, reusing idle pipe, threading existing corridors, avoiding reservation land, and racing the clock to lock in steel-in-the-ground before the next Democratic administration can once again sacrifice North American energy security to green ideology.
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