State Rep. James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett in Tuesday’s closely watched Texas Democratic Senate primary. As of 7:30 a.m. Wednesday, with 90.9% of the vote counted, Talarico led Crockett 52.9% to 45.7%, or 7.2%, as per NBC News data. The final RealClearPolitics polling average in this race showed Talarico ahead by 10 points.
Talarico, 36, has served as a Texas state representative since 2018. A Presbyterian seminarian and former middle school teacher, he is widely viewed as a rising star among Texas Democrats.
He must now pivot to the general election, where he faces a steep uphill battle. Although Democrats insist every election cycle that Texas is turning blue, the state has not elected a Democratic senator in more than three decades.
In November, Talarico will face either four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn or Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Because neither candidate surpassed the 50% threshold in Tuesday’s Republican primary, the race will be decided in a May 26 runoff.
Although general election polling remains limited, the current RealClearPolitics average shows Sen. John Cornyn leading Talarico by 2 points in a hypothetical matchup. In a potential race between Talarico and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Paxton holds a 1-point edge.
Republican support will likely consolidate once voters get a clearer sense of just how progressive Talarico’s positions are. During a recent Senate primary debate, he said, “Our southern border should be like our front porch. There should be a giant welcome mat out front.”
On the campaign trail, Talarico told supporters that “God is nonbinary.” Not sure how that will go over in a general election.
Crockett, who represents Texas’s 30th Congressional District, first won her House seat in 2022. She did not file to seek reelection to the House, meaning that after losing the Senate primary, she will complete her current term but will not appear on the ballot for Congress in 2026.
It’s doubtful this loss will silence the brash, abrasive congresswoman for long. When her term ends, don’t be surprised if she lands a contributor slot on CNN or MSNOW.
Crockett made her name as a perpetual thorn in President Trump’s side, cultivating attention with a deliberately confrontational style and a street-inflected rhetorical persona. But once she launched her Senate campaign, that persona seemed to fade — suggesting an awareness that it wouldn’t fly in the upper chamber.
WABC Radio reported that when new polls showed her losing ground to Talarico, Crocket “raised concerns about the integrity of her Senate race, accusing political opponents of cheating.”
Crockett made the accusation while addressing supporters and discussing the state of the race, arguing that irregularities and unfair tactics may be contributing to her campaign’s struggles in the polls. While she did not immediately provide detailed evidence to support the claim, the remarks have quickly drawn attention across the political landscape as the race intensifies.
The Senate contest has been closely watched, with both parties pouring resources into the race as candidates compete for voter support. Crockett’s comments are likely to further inflame tensions in an already heated campaign, as critics push back against her allegations while supporters argue the election process should be scrutinized closely.
When her defeat became apparent on Tuesday night, an uncharacteristically subdued Crockett addressed supporters and once again alleged cheating by the Talarico campaign. She said:
We encourage each and every one of you to remain resilient.We cannot allow this type of behavior to be rewarded, because so long as they know that they can win, even if it means cheating, then they will continue to do it.So I am asking you, I am begging you, to make sure that you go ahead and figure out where it is that you are supposed to vote. Stand in line, wait in line. …
Has Crockett become an election denier? I thought only Republicans were election deniers. And don’t we have the most secure elections ever?
With the primary settled, attention now turns to the general election — where Talarico will try to do what no Texas Democrat has accomplished in a generation. As for Crockett, her Senate bid may be over, but judging by her rhetoric and appetite for the spotlight, it’s unlikely the political world has heard the last of her.
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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