It was a rough night for Republicans. Though we’ve had several months to absorb the blow, New Yorkers chose a pro-Palestinian communist as their next leader. In Virginia, Democrats ran the table. Apparently, voters in the Old Dominion don’t mind a top cop who fantasized about killing a former colleague and his children — and then dodged his community service requirement after a 2022 reckless driving conviction.
But the biggest surprise of the night was the size of New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s decisive victory in the state’s gubernatorial race. As of 6 a.m. Wednesday, with 95% of the vote counted, Sherrill led her Republican opponent, former state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli, by 13 points — 56.2% to 43.2%.
Yes, Sherrill had maintained a lead over Ciattarelli throughout the election cycle. But she proved to be a weak candidate, and after stumbling in the debates, her lead began to slip — so much so that the race actually became competitive.
I was extremely impressed by Ciattarelli’s performance in the first debate. Afterward, I wrote: “The contrast was unmistakable: one candidate demonstrated the readiness and substance required to lead the state — while the other left serious doubts about her capacity to govern.”
In the final weeks of the campaign, many of us thought Ciattarelli might just eke out a win. It wasn’t just wishful thinking. In his 2021 race against incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy, the final RealClearPolitics average of polls showed Ciattarelli trailing by 7.8 points and he ultimately lost by just 2.8 points.
Heading into Election Day, the final RealClearPolitics average showed Sherrill ahead by 3.3 points, down from a 9.3-point lead on September 1. An Atlas Intel poll released Friday showed Ciattarelli within a single point — 50 to 49 — well within striking distance.
Given that Ciattarelli had outperformed the polls in 2021, the hope was that he could do it again. And with Murphy’s dismal record as governor, it seemed possible that New Jersey voters might finally put common sense ahead of ideology and flip the governor’s mansion red.
For example, Murphy’s policies have been a disaster, driving energy prices up by more than 20%. Sherrill’s solution? Freeze prices for a year. Ciattarelli’s response was essentially, ‘hell no — let’s bring prices down.’ And he offered concrete ways to do it, including withdrawing New Jersey from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative on day one.
Moreover, Ciattarelli campaigned on providing tax relief to New Jersey residents who currently face one of the highest tax burdens in the U.S. According to exit polls, voters cited the economy as their top issue.
Also, President Trump outperformed expectations in the Garden State last November. In 2020, he lost to Joe Biden by 16 points. Four years later, he cut that deficit to just 6 points against Kamala Harris.
For all of these reasons, Ciattarelli’s loss to Sherrill by 13 points, nearly 10 points higher than the average of the final polls, seems almost inexplicable. Typically, Republicans outperform polls. So what happened?
First, the obvious: Democrats hold a massive registration advantage in New Jersey. As of Nov. 4, there were 2,526,872 registered Democrats, 1,673,468 Republicans, and 2,358,676 unaffiliated voters — a gap of 853,404 between the two major parties.
The New York Post reported that nearly 300,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans had cast early ballots in New Jersey, meaning that Ciattarelli had to make up that deficit on Election Day or lose the race.
[The Post was careful to note this did not necessarily mean that Sherrill began the day with 300,000 more votes than Ciattarelli. It was impossible to know if all the Democrats who voted early cast their ballots for Sherrill.]
At any rate, while Republicans have improved their numbers since 2021, it’s tough to overcome such a big deficit.
Another major factor in Ciattarelli’s stinging loss may be the mass exodus of residents from New Jersey to red states. During a Tuesday night discussion on Fox News, hosts Martha MacCallum and Sean Hannity noted that nearly 250,000 people have left the state over the past three years.
“I’d imagine a great majority of those people are Republicans — probably seeking lower taxes, probably seeking law and order,” Hannity said, adding that “New Jersey is 49th out of 50 when it comes to the tax burden on its citizens.”
MacCallum pointed out that Trump had managed to flip five counties in the state red in 2024. She asked, “If it’s not Trump on the ballot, can you move the ball in some of these red districts?” Although complete results weren’t yet available, she noticed that the Hispanic voters who had backed Trump didn’t seem to be turning out for Ciattarelli.
If that’s true, it doesn’t bode well for Republicans heading into next year’s midterms.
Finally, by managing to blame the shutdown on the GOP, with an assist from their friends in the media, Democrats were able to fire up their base and juice turnout. It’s no coincidence that party leaders refused to budge on their demands until voters went to the polls. Read all about it in The Washington Post.
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday morning, Trump expressed disappointment over the election results, but said Tuesday “was not expected to be a victory.” And that’s true. With the most widely watched races taking place in blue states, aside from thinking Ciattarelli had a decent shot at winning, Republicans were under no illusions.
“I think, if you read the pollsters, the shutdown was a big factor,” Trump said. “Negative for the Republicans, and that was a big factor.”
He added: “And they say that I wasn’t on the ballot was the biggest factor. But I don’t know about that. But I was honored that they said that.”
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
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