When the Polls Got It Backward: How New Jersey Slipped Away
And with Murphy’s dismal record as governor, it seemed possible that New Jersey voters might finally put common sense ahead of ideology and flip the governor’s mansion red.
It was a rough night for Republicans. Though we’ve had several months to absorb the blow, New Yorkers chose a pro-Palestinian communist as their next leader. In Virginia, Democrats ran the table. Apparently, voters in the Old Dominion don’t mind a top cop who fantasized about killing a former colleague and his children — and then dodged his community service requirement after a 2022 reckless driving conviction.
But the biggest surprise of the night was the size of New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s decisive victory in the state’s gubernatorial race. As of 6 a.m. Wednesday, with 95% of the vote counted, Sherrill led her Republican opponent, former state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli, by 13 points — 56.2% to 43.2%.
Yes, Sherrill had maintained a lead over Ciattarelli throughout the election cycle. But she proved to be a weak candidate, and after stumbling in the debates, her lead began to slip — so much so that the race actually became competitive.
I was extremely impressed by Ciattarelli’s performance in the first debate. Afterward, I wrote: “The contrast was unmistakable: one candidate demonstrated the readiness and substance required to lead the state — while the other left serious doubts about her capacity to govern.”
In the final weeks of the campaign, many of us thought Ciattarelli might just eke out a win. It wasn’t just wishful thinking. In his 2021 race against incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy, the final RealClearPolitics average of polls showed Ciattarelli trailing by 7.8 points and he ultimately lost by just 2.8 points.
Heading into Election Day, the final RealClearPolitics average showed Sherrill ahead by 3.3 points, down from a 9.3-point lead on September 1. An Atlas Intel poll released Friday showed Ciattarelli within a single point — 50 to 49 — well within striking distance.
Given that Ciattarelli had outperformed the polls in 2021, the hope was that he could do it again. And with Murphy’s dismal record as governor, it seemed possible that New Jersey voters might finally put common sense ahead of ideology and flip the governor’s mansion red.
For example, Murphy’s policies have been a disaster, driving energy prices up by more than 20%. Sherrill’s solution? Freeze prices for a year. Ciattarelli’s response was essentially, ‘hell no — let’s bring prices down.’ And he offered concrete ways to do it, including withdrawing New Jersey from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative on day one.
Moreover, Ciattarelli campaigned on providing tax relief to New Jersey residents who currently face one of the highest tax burdens in the U.S. According to exit polls, voters cited the economy as their top issue.
Also, President Trump outperformed expectations in the Garden State last November. In 2020, he lost to Joe Biden by 16 points. Four years later, he cut that deficit to just 6 points against Kamala Harris.
For all of these reasons, Ciattarelli’s loss to Sherrill by 13 points, nearly 10 points higher than the average of the final polls, seems almost inexplicable. Typically, Republicans outperform polls. So what happened?
First, the obvious: Democrats hold a massive registration advantage in New Jersey. As of Nov. 4, there were 2,526,872 registered Democrats, 1,673,468 Republicans, and 2,358,676 unaffiliated voters — a gap of 853,404 between the two major parties.
The New York Post reported that nearly 300,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans had cast early ballots in New Jersey, meaning that Ciattarelli had to make up that deficit on Election Day or lose the race.
[The Post was careful to note this did not necessarily mean that Sherrill began the day with 300,000 more votes than Ciattarelli. It was impossible to know if all the Democrats who voted early cast their ballots for Sherrill.]
At any rate, while Republicans have improved their numbers since 2021, it’s tough to overcome such a big deficit.
Another major factor in Ciattarelli’s stinging loss may be the mass exodus of residents from New Jersey to red states. During a Tuesday night discussion on Fox News, hosts Martha MacCallum and Sean Hannity noted that nearly 250,000 people have left the state over the past three years.
“I’d imagine a great majority of those people are Republicans — probably seeking lower taxes, probably seeking law and order,” Hannity said, adding that “New Jersey is 49th out of 50 when it comes to the tax burden on its citizens.”
MacCallum pointed out that Trump had managed to flip five counties in the state red in 2024. She asked, “If it’s not Trump on the ballot, can you move the ball in some of these red districts?” Although complete results weren’t yet available, she noticed that the Hispanic voters who had backed Trump didn’t seem to be turning out for Ciattarelli.
If that’s true, it doesn’t bode well for Republicans heading into next year’s midterms.
Finally, by managing to blame the shutdown on the GOP, with an assist from their friends in the media, Democrats were able to fire up their base and juice turnout. It’s no coincidence that party leaders refused to budge on their demands until voters went to the polls. Read all about it in The Washington Post.
A bipartisan group of senators is working to craft a deal in which Congress would pass three full-year appropriations bills to fund some agencies, along with a short-term bill that would reopen the rest of the government.https://t.co/ozL5xMes4f
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 5, 2025
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday morning, Trump expressed disappointment over the election results, but said Tuesday “was not expected to be a victory.” And that’s true. With the most widely watched races taking place in blue states, aside from thinking Ciattarelli had a decent shot at winning, Republicans were under no illusions.
“I think, if you read the pollsters, the shutdown was a big factor,” Trump said. “Negative for the Republicans, and that was a big factor.”
He added: “And they say that I wasn’t on the ballot was the biggest factor. But I don’t know about that. But I was honored that they said that.”
Elizabeth writes commentary for Legal Insurrection and The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.
Comments
Much like 2020 and 2016 for that matter the pollsters were wildly wrong. I think this may drive a stake through the heart of the polling firms as they clearly don’t know how to poll the body politic in the age of the internet
Pollster never factor in the Democrats cheat
Maybe it was because all of the New Yorkers who have fled to New Jersey, but brought their voting habits with them.
It was the exodus and lack of ground game
Scott Pressler can’t be everywhere doing everything
Republicans have absolutely got to get a solid ground game.
Everytime I try to volunteer for republicans in Texas the republicans are a hot mess and useless.
Dems pay their people to turn out, they cheat like hell, millions of mail in ballots
We can’t win if we don’t play the game
Getting a good ground game requires leadership and organization from the top. Trump needs to do this for next year, because no one else can.
Because he hasn’t got his hands full with the whole president thing…
IMO, it requires dedication, commitment and intensity of effort from committed grassroot organizers at the local level. See Pennsylvania and the yeoman work of Scott Presler to shift the voter registration advantage to the GoP. He put in years of sustained effort.
Can $ from outside help? Absolutely. Same for a popular National political leader holding rallies to fire up the base and draw crowds who can then be signed up for support/registered to vote. Nothing substitutes for local bottom up grassroots volunteers and no outside effort is gonna replace it.
I would put Scott in charge of the Republican Party get out the vote give him carte blanch, give all the money and resources he needs
This is War
GOTV isn’t done through the parties these days, but instead through organizations affiliated with parties. The Democrats have the unions and the Soros NGOs. We only have TPUSA, and everything depends on whether Erica Kirk can fill her late husband’s shoes. GOTV requires millions of volunteers, and in practice that means college students and retired people. It takes a huge organization to recruit millions of volunteers.
Trump
And the republicans today
He’s right, if we do t do this America is dead
It’s worse than I thought
November 5, 2025 4:11 pm
Go get them PDJT! From his speech.
7:24- “It’s time for Republicans to do what they have to do, and that’s terminate the filibuster. It’s the only way you can do it. Uh. And if you don’t terminate the filibuster, you’ll be in bad shape. We won’t pass any legislation. There’ll be no legislation passed for three and a quarter. We have three and a quarter years.”
9:46- “They can arrest you, okay? They can arrest you because they want to cheat, and they get away with it. And the Republicans let them get away with it. And we won’t do that if we have the filibuster. So, I’m just going to we’re going to talk about that a little bit. And we’re going to see if we can sway because I know we have a lot of uh not a lot. I’d say half feel this way. Maybe a little bit less than half. And it’s time to have a really good talk. Um, if I thought that they weren’t going to pass the filibuster, I wouldn’t even bring it up. They’re going to pass it within the first hour. If they take power, and it’s more likely that they take power if we don’t do anything because we’re not going to be passing any legislation. They’re going to approve anything. We’re going to go three and a quarter years. There won’t be one bill that we’re going to pass because the easiest thing to pass is exactly right now what they won’t pass. And they’ll do that and they’ll wreak havoc. But let’s assume they get in. They’re doing it anyway, so it wouldn’t matter. They’re doing it anyway.”
14:43- “But the biggest thing is the filibuster. Uh we have to get the country going. We will pass legislation at levels you’ve never seen before, and it’ll be impossible to beat us. By the way, if they do, they they’re going to do it anyway. And they are going to immediately do the filibuster. And when they do the filibuster, they’re going to pack the court. They want five, at least five justice. Now they I hear it’s up to five. I actually heard up to seven and up to nine. Okay? They want new judges. They want to pack the court. And they will do it in first day. Maybe the week. Maybe they’ll slow it down because there’s no reason to rush, but they’ll do it first week. They’ll vote on this. And I have friends over there that are Democrats. Very I’m close to a lot of people. And I asked him about that because some people say, “Well, maybe they won’t do that.”. I mean, they destroyed the career of Manchin and Sinema and they got them out. They were the only objectors. Nobody else is going to object. They’re going to do it the first day. They’re going to pack the court. They’re going to make DC a state and they’re going to make Puerto Rico a state. So now they pick up two states. They pick up four senators. Okay. You think you have problems? They’re going to do all of the things. They’re going to pick up electoral votes. It’s going to be a very, very bad situation. And it’s done. It’s done. As soon as they attain power now, if we do what I’m saying, you they’ll never they’ll most likely never attain power because we will have passed every single thing that you can imagine that it’s good and all good for the country and there’ll be no reason to. If we don’t do that, uh people will say they’re not doing much and they’re in power.”
I’m so depressed
2.8 % in a hard blue state isn’t that horrible.
That was four years ago. This time it looks like 13% so far.
welfare buys votes…but once again…leftists/rinos made it legal
Whoever makes or offers to make an expenditure to any person, either to vote or withhold his vote, or to vote for or against any candidate; and
Whoever solicits, accepts, or receives any such expenditure in consideration of his vote or the withholding of his vote—
Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both; and if the violation was willful, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.
Welfare is not a private expenditure. They’re not spending anything out of their own pockets. They’re not making the expenditure, the state is. And they’re not promising it to any individual in exchange for his vote; they’re promising that if they’re elected they’ll have the state make this expenditure for everyone eligible, no matter how they voted. That is not what the law forbids.
You can’t forbid that, because it would leave no way to campaign, and the right to campaign is inherent both in the first amendment and in the entire concept of free elections.
If Cuomo had put in 1/2 effort he would have won
Idiot
Funny. People on this site get their panties in a wad about Trump not being the second coming of our Lord and Savior, but want to embrace Cuomo the grandmother killer.
That’s even worse than mad-mane getting votes.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
cuomo is a pos and djt shouldnt even have endorsed him
Cuomo is a POS, but DJT was right to endorse him, because as he said, Cuomo would not have destroyed the city.
I don’t think Mamdani is actually a Communist, and he may or may not destroy the city, given the limited powers of a mayor. But he is a very slick, skilled charlatan, a fraud who plays his voters like a musical instrument. As such, I think he is far more dangerous than a mere Communist, and assuming he doesn’t self-destruct, he seems destined for higher office. Right now, the extraordinarily high rents in NYC, combined with the unease by professionals that AI is taking their jobs, is creating a massive market for communist ideas, and Mamdani is filling that demand in the political marketplace.
No one here embraced Cuomo. But he was clearly by far the lesser of the two weevils who were the only realistic choices.
He is. Piece of shit but he’s not a Muslim and not a commie
He deserves to be in prison but I’m absolutely terrified what the Muslims will do
Cuomo put in 100% effort. There’s nothing he could have done that he didn’t. Maybe he could have killed slightly fewer grannies 5 yeas ago, but at that time he didn’t think he’d be running for mayor.
Hayzoos, Mary, and Joseph!
Everyone is acting and crying that America is over. It’s not over.
New Jersey! It’s been a haven for left wing nimrods since I was born near the middle of the last Century. My wife was born and raised in NJ. At 17, her family and she moved out of NJ because of the rampant drug use, the crime, the high taxes, the influx of illegals, the taxes, the taxes, the taxes…
New York. See New Jersey, but more like a total shit show. Now run by a Muslim Marxist scam artist. Still a liberal shit hole.
Virginia. A more refined shit hole. But till a liberal haven salted by pissed off government employees who were happy when they were getting the grift, but not so happy when their cushy berth has been removed. Hasn’t elected a Republican president since Obamalamadingdong in 2008.
California. The worst of the worst. A paradise ruined by the liberal influx of perverts and pedophiles. Ruined even more by the unofficial Reconquista. No true Republican representation for decades. Pretty narcissists who think Americans wake up wanting to be them.
Nothing changed yesterday. So please, stop the hand wringing.
Call me when flyover country goes left. We’ll be fine.
The liberal enclaves are like the crazy drunk aunt at the party. She doesn’t represent the entire family, and she pops up every so often to ruin Thanksgiving and the occasional wedding we are forced to invite her to by a well meaning parent.
We will keep our distance.
Exactly. So much wailing and rending of garments. Blue areas voted blue. Democrats, as usual, voted for the worst people.
red states best increase their manufacturing abilities
That’s been going on for decades. In Alabama alone we have Airbus in Mobile, Northrop Grumman Boeing and Dynetics in Huntsville for Aircraft/aviation/space, Mercedes, Mazda-Toyota, Hyundai and Honda for vehicles, Austal in Mobile for shipbuilding,
Manuacturing in the US is in red areas.
I think the third run by a candidate after losing the first two times is unlikely to be successful.
How so? Why would it be less likely for him to win than for any other Republican? The previous two times voters chose to vote Democrat. Nothing to do with him, he didn’t scare them off, they just preferred the Democrat. As happened again this time. There’s no reason to suppose he had any personal negatives. If he had, he wouldn’t have won the primary.
Nixon suffered two defeats (president in 1960, governor in 1962) before winning in 1968.
I am not saying it NEVER happens, but if people have voted against you twice for a position, they are unlikely to change their minds on the third try, unless something significant has changed.
Nixon was a perfect example of changed circumstances. He capitalized on widespread discontent and the Vietnam War, promising something that people wanted, which was law and order. Plus, he had the good fortune of George Wallace running as a third candidate in 1968.
For Ciattarelli, as far as I can tell, nothing much had changed. He has not really burnished his credentials in the last four years, plus the environment is less positive for a Republican win in a blue state following Trump’s victory.
People didn’t vote against him, they voted for Murphy.
Actually this whole discussion has been proceeding under a misunderstanding, or at least I have been. The fact is that this was only his second loss at a general election. In 2017 he lost the GOP primary, and the winner went on to lose to Murphy.
But even had he lost to Murphy twice, that would just mean people had preferred Murphy twice, and wouldn’t be a reflection on him. Remember that most people vote based on the party, not on the person.
In addition, it turns out the big factor in the size of Sherrill’s win was the huge jump in turnout. It looks like Ciattarelli might well have kept all his previous voters and added more to them, but the Dems managed to roust out a whole lot of lefties who had not voted 4 years ago.
> People didn’t vote against him, they voted for Murphy
Macht nichts.
People are sick of the tax burden in NJ. Yet, Ciattarelli lost by double digits to a cheater at the US Naval Academy and Republican turnout was low. Those facts do not support him as a convincing candidate.
P.S. I think people DID vote against him, after the Trump endorsement. Since Trump lost by badly in NJ, it was a strategic error to accept his endorsement.
You can tell the D’s were worried about this one by how many bomb threats were called in on election day to polling places in R areas, and how many long delays there were at other R polling places because the voting machines conveniently went down.
Bad enough to lose, but this was a blowout.
Mostly due to the fact that the GOP didn’t force Dems to actually carry out their filibuster so that all of AMerica could see some dem constantly yapping on and on and on on the Senate floor as the Dems ACTIVELY worked to stop the CR from passing. If the GOP had forced the Dems to actually perform their filibuster then no one would have any doubt why the CR wasn’t passing, as any moment of the day would have a dem in the Senate talking non-stop about absolute garbage. This was a huge mistake by Thune and the Senate GOP. And they did this Cory Booker already demonstrated how he loves to play filibuster (Booker even did that just to talk, without any legislation involved, at all!).
Why does anyone think the Dems won anything?
Do you think they only cheat to install bogus presidents?
You don’t get good at cheating by doing it once every four years.
They cheat in every race that will get them a bit of power they think they need.
They NEEDED this election to look really good for dems. Because the reality on the ground is awful.
So they cheated like mad.
NJ or any blue state, if the Republican isn’t ahead in every poll by at least 3 points, the Democrat will win.
Been like that for a long time, why would you expect a come from behind victory? Democrat voters don’t care who the candidate is or what the candidate says (even wishing death on children). Blue state voters will always drone into the voting booth chanting “Who’s The Democrat? Who’s The Democrat?”