Poll Finds Virginia Governor Race in Statistical Tie Following Debate
“47.7 percent of likely Virginia voters support Democrat candidate Spanberger, and 45.1 percent of likely voters in Virginia support Earle-Sears”
The race for governor of Virginia is now a statistical tie, according to polling from the Trafalgar Group.
Democrat Abigail Spanberger maintained a lead throughout the summer and into September when Republican and current Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears began to close the gap. Then the debate happened this week, and the country watched as Spanberger refused to drop her endorsement of Jay Jones, the Democrat running for attorney general who wished death on a Republican colleague and his children.
The debate may have changed the dynamic of the race.
The Post Millennial reports:
Spanberger, Sears in statistical tie after VA debate, AG nom Jay Jones trails Miyares: Trafalgar poll
The support for GOP candidate Winsome Earle-Sears as well as Democrat candidate Abigail Spanberger has tightened after the Thursday debate between the two candidates, to where the numbers are within the margin of error. In the race for attorney general, however, the Democrat, Jay Jones, is far behind incumbent Jason Miyares, 43.1 to 48.9 percent, respectively.
According to a poll from Trafalgar, 47.7 percent of likely Virginia voters support Democrat candidate Spanberger, and 45.1 percent of likely voters in Virginia support Earle-Sears. The margin of error in the poll is 2.9 percent, meaning the polls are a statistical tie.
The poll was conducted October 8 through October 10 in the days immediately following Thursday’s debate with Spanberger and Earle-Sears. There were 1,066 likely voters that responded. In the poll, the race for Lieutenant Governor was also surveyed. 46.8 percent of those in the poll said they would support Ghazala Hasmi, and 45.9 percent of respondents said they would support John Reid.
See below:
BREAKING: @trafalgar_group VA Statewide Election Polls (10/08-10/10)
VA Gov:
47.7% @SpanbergerForVA
45.1% @winwithwinsome
1.7% @Donna4Gov
5.6% UndVA Lt. Gov:
46.8% @SenatorHashmi
45.9% @JohnReid4VA
7.3% UndVA AG
48.9% @JasonMiyaresVA
43.1% @jonesjay
8.0% UndSee full… pic.twitter.com/2KtIYvvFSL
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 11, 2025
🚨 MAJOR BREAKING: Virginia Democrat Jay Jones, who wants Republicans and their children to die, FALLS WAY BEHIND Jason Miyares (R) — and Winsome Sears (R) is within striking distance for governor
AG:
🔴 Miyares: 49% (+6) [WOW]
🔵 Jones: 43%Governor:
🔵 Spanberger: 47.7%… pic.twitter.com/FHHVkPs3dD— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 11, 2025
🚨 BREAKING: Republican Jason Miyares now UP SIX POINTS after Jay Jones “two bullets” scandal, Sears within reach after STANDOUT debate performance
AG:
🔴 Miyares: 49% (+6)
🔵 Jones: 43%Governor:
🔵 Spanberger: 47.7% (+2.6)
🔴 Sears: 45.1%KEEP THE MOMENTUM GOING VIRGINIA! pic.twitter.com/2sHQxG6Wgc
— Virginia College Republicans (@vacollegegop) October 11, 2025
Sears continues hammering Spanberger in her media appearances.
🔥 Spanberger’s debate meltdown keeps getting worse.@WinsomeSears: “The first job of a governor is to keep people safe — she voted for open borders and against deporting violent criminals.” pic.twitter.com/MSAvWsdR67
— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) October 10, 2025
Meanwhile, Virginia Democrats have really torn off the mask in this election.
From the creators of this sign comes this cartoon: https://t.co/R3QBpxGnHi pic.twitter.com/vgEywG6DIv
— Prison Mitch (@MidnightMitch) October 10, 2025
Featured image via YouTube.
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Comments
Love that cartoon. Poor Democrats, when “only racists vote against the minority candidate” comes back to bite them like a pit bull.
That debate was one of the worst showings I’ve ever seen for a candidate and that is saying something considering Biden’s performance. Spanberger got hammered into the ground by Sears.
Votes are not opinion polls. They differ by a moment of madness when the actual choice is committed to. Opinion changes like the wind.
In a vote you decide who to vote for, and they have to say yes to that decision, in effect signing it. The signature effect.
Molly Bloom saying yes to marriage is the literary example. Not an opinion poll. Nor a statistical event.
Gibraltar as a girl where I was a Flower of the mountain yes when I put the rose in my hair like the Andalusian girls used or shall I wear a red yes and how he kissed me under the Moorish wall and I thought well as well him as another and then I asked him with my eyes to ask again yes and then he asked me would I yes to say yes my mountain flower and first I put my arms around him yes and drew him down to me so he could feel my breasts all perfume yes and his heart was going like mad and yes I said yes I will Yes.
You mean a voter suppression poll?
Spanberger has all the charm (and looks) of a transwoman.
It will be a miracle if Sears wins
She’s not very polished nor commanding
Shouldn’t have dissed Trump in 2020 , she’d get some real help if she hadnt
You didn’t see the debate, did you?
You mean a voter suppression poll?
The debate silence was a devastating tell. How hard can it be to do what is right and to make it worse by standing stone-faced like Joe Biden?
At least Biden had the legitimate excuse that he’s a mental retard.
Tells you how she’ll govern. “STFU, Peasant.”
VA voters have a set of very clear choices. Either they collectively choose the folks who want ‘tranny’ to share locker rooms with children, wish death upon their political opponents as well their families and declare their desire to piss on their graves ….OR they reject the raving lunatic wokiesta leftists who’ve not only let their mask slip but deliberately refused to walk back their Cray Cray. This ain’t your Parent’s d/prog party and hopefully enough VA voters realize it before they put these loons into office.
Meanwhile, send her some damn FRNs.
Good grief. Are these best two VA can come up with to run for governor?
Scary
According to Democrats, nominating a black female against a white brahmin should guarantee the win. Especially if you don’t tell anybody the black woman is NOT a DEI hire.
Polls should not be this close. It’s a sad commentary on how things are in VA now.
As a VA resident, I’m absolutely horrified at the prospect of four years of a Gov Spanberger
Effing Fascist Karen
Wish Trump would accelerate, and triple down, on moving Federal bureaucracies out of the DC area. Eliminate several more entirely, and massively downsize the rest.
Its federal employees that have ruined VA.
John McCain’s brother was spot on when he described Alexandria and Fairfax County as “Communist Country”.
Since then, its gotten so much worse. Eight years of Obama massively expanding the bureaucracy, no reduction under Trump 1.0, and then another massive expansion in Ovama’s 3rd term while the cadaver Biden rotted on Rehobeth beach.
Communist Country now extends entirely across Loudoun County (which keeps making national news for all the wrong reasons) and most of Prince William County as well.
When I retire, I will be leaving the State. Literally the day after. I’ll have it all planned well in advance.
It saddens me that my birth state, the red state of my youth, has been so polluted by the bleeding of fed govt leftist.
I agree, agencies need to be moved out into the real world, outside the cess pool bubble.
My wife and I are currently in Virginia visiting relatives. It was a long slog from Missouri, but here we are.
We’ve seen almost zero political signs as we highwayed thru Virginia. The only exceptions were a ‘Trump 2024’ sign at an intersection, a ‘Winsom Sears for Governor’ banner on a farmer’s fence, and her ad on local TV castigating her democrat opponent, Abigail Spanberger, for supporting dem AG candidate Jay Jones advocating for the murder of his political enemy. I’ve seen nothing on TV for Jones.
In addition, I’ve seen zero signs in support for incumbent GOP AG Jason Miyares, or his murder advocating democrat opponent for AG, Jay Jones.
All anecdotal observations, to be sure, and VA. is a big state, so make of it what you will.
Yeah, you must be highwaying through southern or western Virginia. Anything north of Fredricksburg or east of Warrenton is East Berlin now.
The Founders purposely set aside a non-political “district” to handle all their political offices. They never dreamed their “strictly limited” behemoth would grow to such a size as to metastasize into significant portions of their neighbor states. I guess we should be glad there were only two. It was definitely a mistake to cede Arlington County back to Virginia from DC — it wouldn’t have prevented the invasion, but it would have put off Virginia’s woes just that much longer.