Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a near-Earth object approximately 53–67 meters wide that was discovered in December 2024.
While initial models suggested a small chance of Earth impact, refined tracking now indicates that there is no risk to Earth, but about a 4% probability that it will strike the Moon on December 22, 2032.
Earlier this year, asteroid 2024 YR4 drew global attention when its estimated chance of striking Earth in 2032 reached 3%. Although further observations have since ruled out any risk to our planet, interest in the asteroid has not faded.As the asteroid moved out of range of even the most advanced telescopes, calculations left a remaining 4% probability that it could impact the Moon on December 22, 2032.This impact risk is expected to stay unchanged until the asteroid becomes visible again in mid-2028.
The Moon lacks an atmosphere to burn up incoming objects, so even a modest-sized asteroid such as 2024 YR4 can make a direct impact. A lunar strike from this object has the potential to generate enough debris to threaten satellites and the International Space Station (ISS).
Scientists are considering several options to address this possibility. Legal Insurrection readers may recall NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which successfully altered the trajectory of an asteroid.
However, this approach has been deemed impractical for the 2024 YR4. So a “nuclear option” is being considered.
Nuclear explosives presented a better option as these “are generally capable of handling larger asteroids and/or shorter warning times than other methods, all else being equal,” Brent Barbee, one of the researcher’s behind the paper, told Newsweek.The team suggested the deployment of two nuclear explosive devices—one just “in case it was needed”—each five to eight times stronger than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, according to Futurism.These would be launched toward the asteroid in an attempt to disrupt it before it reaches the moon.The plan, according to the study, is more feasible than attempting a precision deflection mission that could inadvertently redirect the asteroid toward Earth.
Yes, keeping a “city killer” away from Earth would be an essential part of the plan. And, I would like to note that for the “climate crisis” minded that impacts of asteroids in this size range have the potential to inject large amounts of dust and aerosols into the atmosphere, resulting in global temperature reductions of several degrees, reduced sunlight, lower precipitation, and severe ozone depletion for a few years. This would be a real example of a “climate crisis”.
But I digress.
Meanwhile, the object will continue to be monitored closely.
They want to redirect missions like Psyche or OSIRIS-APEX to gather crucial data on the asteroid during its close Earth-Moon flyby in 2028, as it will help them nail down the asteroid’s path and risk.The researchers have proposed a “kinetic disruption mission” to blow up the space rock with “nuclear explosive devices”. According to a report by Futurism, the team proposed sending two 100-kilotonne nuclear devices to the asteroid. The device will detonate with a force roughly five to eight times more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.In short, scientists want to replicate what we saw in the Hollywood sci-fi thriller Armageddon to tackle the asteroid 2024 YR4.
And, who knows…perhaps there will be lunar installations present in 2032 that could be hit. Artemis II, the crewed fly-by of the Moon, is now slated for 2026.
NASA officials have said that the Artemis II mission will launch no later than April 2026, taking the four astronauts on a 10-day trip circumnavigating – but not landing on – the moon.In an update at a press conference Sept. 23, officials confirmed that not only is the mission on track for launch by April, but could potentially be moved up to February.While no moon landing is in store for the Artemis II astronauts, the mission serves a vital role in testing the systems and hardware on the spacecraft needed for future expeditions to the lunar surface.The first of those could happen no earlier than 2027 with the much more ambitious Artemis III mission, which will return astronauts to the surface of the moon for the first time in more than half a century.
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