A group of researchers is stunned to find a 20-year slowdown in the melting of Arctic sea ice.
However, as the scientists used computer modelling and are inclined to support the pseudoscience of man-caused climate change, they also assert that the melting will speed up once “natural climate variations” end.
Scientists say this is a temporary slowdown that may continue for a further five to 10 years and, when it ends, is likely to be followed by faster-than-average sea ice decline.In a new study, they investigated changes in observed Arctic sea ice cover, using two datasets collected with satellite measurements from 1979 to the present day. “Minimal Arctic sea ice loss in the last 20 years, consistent with internal climate variability” is published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.Focusing on September, when ice cover is at its annual minimum, the researchers found sea ice between 2005 and 2024 declined by 0.35 and 0.29 million km2 per decade respectively.The longer-term rate of decline for the period 1979–2024 was 0.78 and 0.79 million km2 per decade (depending on which dataset used), making the slowdown a 55% and 63% reduction.This was the slowest rate of loss for any 20-year period since the start of satellite records in 1979, and four to five times slower than the peak 20-year period of 1993–2012.
Despite this data, the climate crisis narrative must be preserved. So the authors of this report bitterly cling to the idea that the planet is going to warm…even harder.
The finding is surprising, the researchers say, given that carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning have continued to rise and trap ever more heat over that time.They said natural variations in ocean currents that limit ice melting had probably balanced out the continuing rise in global temperatures. However, they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some point in the next five to 10 years.The findings do not mean Arctic sea ice is rebounding. Sea ice area in September, when it reaches its annual minimum, has halved since 1979, when satellite measurements began. The climate crisis remains “unequivocally real”, the scientists said, and the need for urgent action to avoid the worst impacts remains unchanged.
In the conclusion, the authors (M. R. England, L. M. Polvani, J. Screen, A. C. Chan) state that their computer models are completely consistent with the presence of this pause in melting.
- The pervasive slowdown of Arctic sea ice loss is robust across the choice of definitions, observational data set, and season.
- This observed pause in ice loss is simulated relatively frequently (a nearly 20% chance) in climate models, and is thus to be expected even under high emission scenarios.
- If model simulations are accurate, the recent pause may plausibly continue for an additional five to 10 years. However, this pause also heightens the risk of a more rapid decline in sea ice cover in the coming years.
- Nearly all models analyzed suggest an important role for internal climate variability in slowing the anthropogenically-forced sea ice loss.
I did some digging on the authors. Mark England is a climate scientist who, among other things, is investigating near-term climate benefits of methane mitigation. Per his biography:
I have been funded to lead MethaneMIP, a model intercomparison project to investigate the near-term climate benefits of methane mitigation.
L. Polvani is a professor at Columbia University, whose research is funded in part by the NOAA Climate and Global Change Program. Climate scientist James Screen has contributed to several reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
I assert that the authors do not have a neutral position on the reasons for temperature changes, and they are filtering their data through a narrative science lens.
I believe that their data clearly shows that modeling the climate with computer programs has very limited practicality because Earth’s climate system is extremely complex, involving countless interacting factors that are difficult to fully understand or measure. To make simulations possible, models use simplifications and approximations, which lead to inaccuracies and distortions that can be used to support any incorrect hypothesis or undermine reality-based theories.
Finally, I would like to introduce you to the “Winter Gatekeeper Theory“, a climate science proposal suggesting that changes in how energy and moisture are transported from the tropics to the poles (especially during Northern Hemisphere winter) are a main driver of climate change.
The Winter Gatekeeper hypothesis proposes that changes in the meridional transport of energy and moisture are the main way the climate changes now and in the past. Meridional transport variability has many causes and forces that act simultaneously and in different time frames on the climate system. They integrate into a very complex poleward energy transportation system. Among these are multidecadal ocean-atmosphere oscillations, solar variability, ozone, stratospheric-reaching tropical volcanic eruptions, orbital changes, and changing luni-solar gravitational pull. Meridional transport is therefore an integrator of internal and external signals. It is not the only way the climate changes, but evidence suggests it is the main one.
I’m not saying that “Winter Gatekeeper” is a perfect theory, but it sure is nice to have an option that doesn’t blame mankind or cows.
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