July Inflation Holds Steady at 2.7% for All Items Year-to-Year
I do not mind admitting when I was wrong. I thought the effects from tariffs would show up in July.
I guess not! That’s a great thing! Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on X:
Good news for consumers:While July inflation held steady at 2.7% year-over-year, the near-term trend is even better with the 3-month annualized change down to just 2.3%.Most importantly — there is no demonstrable negative impact from tariffs.Good prices, excluding food and energy, are up even less since tariffs were first implemented, rising only 0.8% annualized.
The index for food remained unchanged in July. The index for energy decreased 1.1% in July.
However, the index for all items minus food and energy rose 0.3% in July after a 0.2% increase in June.
Generally, the minus food and energy number is a better indicator since food and energy are volatile.
But let’s break down the numbers. Look at the energy category! Most impressive.
You can compare the numbers from June: CPI Increases at 2.7% Annual Rate in June, Highest in Four Months
Food:
- Food at home: +2.2% in 12 months, -0.1% in a month
- Cereals and cereal products: -1.2% in 12 months, -0.9% in a month
- Flour: +0.1% in 12 months, -1.9% in a month
- Bread: +1.3% in 12 months, +0.4% in a month
- Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs: +5.2% in 12 months, +0.2% in a month
- Meats (all): +5.2% in 12 months, +1.0% in a month
- Ground beef: +11.5% in 12 months, +2.4% in a month
- Fresh & frozen chicken parts: +4.1% in 12 months, -0.4% in a month
- Eggs: +16.4% in 12 months, -3.9% in a month
- Milk: +2.6% in 12 months, +1.9% in a month
- Fruits & veggies: +0.2% in 12 months, +0.0% in a month
- Apples: +6.0% in 12 months, -1.7% in a month
- Bananas: +4.3% in 12 months, +0.4% in a month
- Pop: +1.4% in 12 months, -1.2% in a month
- Coffee: +14.5% in 12 months, +2.3% in a month
- Sugar: +2.5% in 12 months, -0.9% in a month
- Butter: -1.6% in 12 months, -1.0% in a month
Energy:
- Gasoline (all types): -9.5% in 12 months, -2.2% in a month
- Gasoline (regular): -10.0% in 12 months, -2.2% in a month
- Electricity: +5.5% in 12 months, -0.1% in a month
- Utility (piped) gas service: +13.8% in 12 months, -0.9% in a month
Medicine:
- Prescription drugs: +0.9% in 12 months, -0.2% in a month
- Nonprescription drugs: -1.8% in 12 months, -0.5% in a month
- Health insurance: +4.4% in 12 months, +0.4% in a month
Shelter:
- Shelter (overall): +3.7% in 12 months, +0.2% in a month
- Rent of primary residence: +3.5% in 12 months, +0.3% in a month
- Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence: +4.1% in 12 months, +0.3% in a month
- Lodging away from home: -3.5% in 12 months, -1.0% in a month
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