July Inflation Holds Steady at 2.7% for All Items Year-to-Year
However, the index for all items minus food and energy rose 0.3% in July after a 0.2% increase in June.
I do not mind admitting when I was wrong. I thought the effects from tariffs would show up in July.
I guess not! That’s a great thing! Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on X:
Good news for consumers:
While July inflation held steady at 2.7% year-over-year, the near-term trend is even better with the 3-month annualized change down to just 2.3%.
Most importantly — there is no demonstrable negative impact from tariffs.
Good prices, excluding food and energy, are up even less since tariffs were first implemented, rising only 0.8% annualized.
Good news for consumers:
While July inflation held steady at 2.7% year-over-year, the near-term trend is even better with the 3-month annualized change down to just 2.3%.
Most importantly — there is no demonstrable negative impact from tariffs.
Good prices, excluding food and… https://t.co/0WRZKsbT7I
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) August 12, 2025
The index for food remained unchanged in July. The index for energy decreased 1.1% in July.
However, the index for all items minus food and energy rose 0.3% in July after a 0.2% increase in June.
Generally, the minus food and energy number is a better indicator since food and energy are volatile.
But let’s break down the numbers. Look at the energy category! Most impressive.
You can compare the numbers from June: CPI Increases at 2.7% Annual Rate in June, Highest in Four Months
Food:
- Food at home: +2.2% in 12 months, -0.1% in a month
- Cereals and cereal products: -1.2% in 12 months, -0.9% in a month
- Flour: +0.1% in 12 months, -1.9% in a month
- Bread: +1.3% in 12 months, +0.4% in a month
- Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs: +5.2% in 12 months, +0.2% in a month
- Meats (all): +5.2% in 12 months, +1.0% in a month
- Ground beef: +11.5% in 12 months, +2.4% in a month
- Fresh & frozen chicken parts: +4.1% in 12 months, -0.4% in a month
- Eggs: +16.4% in 12 months, -3.9% in a month
- Milk: +2.6% in 12 months, +1.9% in a month
- Fruits & veggies: +0.2% in 12 months, +0.0% in a month
- Apples: +6.0% in 12 months, -1.7% in a month
- Bananas: +4.3% in 12 months, +0.4% in a month
- Pop: +1.4% in 12 months, -1.2% in a month
- Coffee: +14.5% in 12 months, +2.3% in a month
- Sugar: +2.5% in 12 months, -0.9% in a month
- Butter: -1.6% in 12 months, -1.0% in a month
Energy:
- Gasoline (all types): -9.5% in 12 months, -2.2% in a month
- Gasoline (regular): -10.0% in 12 months, -2.2% in a month
- Electricity: +5.5% in 12 months, -0.1% in a month
- Utility (piped) gas service: +13.8% in 12 months, -0.9% in a month
Medicine:
- Prescription drugs: +0.9% in 12 months, -0.2% in a month
- Nonprescription drugs: -1.8% in 12 months, -0.5% in a month
- Health insurance: +4.4% in 12 months, +0.4% in a month
Shelter:
- Shelter (overall): +3.7% in 12 months, +0.2% in a month
- Rent of primary residence: +3.5% in 12 months, +0.3% in a month
- Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence: +4.1% in 12 months, +0.3% in a month
- Lodging away from home: -3.5% in 12 months, -1.0% in a month
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Comments
Biden status quo numbers holding as they are is not a good sign. Democrats lost on those numbers and remember “It’s the economy stupid”. The term is as true today as it was way back when.
Did you actually expect the economy to deflate?
The tariffs haven’t really kicked in. I just bought a Chinese stereo amp at pre-tariff price. We’ll see how long the price holds.
they’re still up. My cost of living continues to increase which income doesn’t. Not a good recipe.
fjb and his leftist communist nazi loving minions wouldnt even admit to the recession they produced
djt for the win
inflation on its own doesnt spell doom in a capitalist market
BUT IN A SOCIALIST MARKET…yeah..its troubling
on bloomberg tv the hystericals are spouting yes…in 2026 we will see the urt from trumps tariffs
yeah and eventually the earth blows up
dont worry about it alfie…enjoy life…ignore lefty
Meh, most of the tariff hoopla was uncertainty about eventual rates and potential escalation. Now that there’s both clarity for the deals locked in as well as those deals providing a ‘road map’ of what the unresolved deals will probably look like the uncertainty and fear is largely removed. The drop in energy prices shows just how important cheap, reliable energy is to the health of the rest of the economy.
Inflation at 2.3% is well within the Feds target rate. If they don’t cut rates and the repo facility at their next meeting than Powell is out at the end of the 3rd quarter. “Book it Dano”
I’m very cynical on the fed’s motivation. Leftists have corrupted every office in the government to be the enemy of the American people.
The appearance of the fed doing this is to try and stymie the Trump economy. The Trump economy is currently assuring Dems lose mid terms. I think the motivation is more corrupt than this. I think with USAID being gone, donors are in fact playing the market for a huge rate cut.
That’s my theory: Leftists Feds are putting their thumb on the scale until the leftist donors have solidly shored up long positions to a very large scale. Doing so is not easy- if you flood the market with buys, this drives up prices, so they have had to be very slow about it. THEN in Sept the fed goes overboard to correct for the prior starvation.
It’s market manipulation pure and simple. Rest assured these donors will be doing everything they can to artificially rock the market in 2028. They won’t have many insiders left at that point, so they will have to rely on the super rich dumping stocks.
I also think foreign investors are in on this too. Look for a similar ploy with real estate… Newsome has shown us with Malibu that they are more than happy to be bribed by foreign investors
Now if we can just stop idiot Republican fundraisers from spamming their supporters with texts like this:
Should America cut a check?
$600 in Tariff Rebate! Do you support this?
CONFIRM for House GOP here!
Acting like Democrats doesn’t make me love you long time, morons.
Beef prices are still climbing, appreciably, particularly for NON-ground beef. Whole roast average prices have increased from $7.638 in July of 2024 to $8.397 last month, a 10% year-over-year increase.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FC2101
Cattle herds are apparently at a 70-year low (which is shocking considering how many more people are in the US today). I’m not sure what if anything Trump can do (maybe easing grazing restrictions on federal lands?). But, it’s an increase that is definitely being felt by consumers.
The AG issues are mostly a structural problem but exacerbated by recurring drought. Mid size and small ranching operations are squeezed b/c there’s four huge conglomerates that dominate the meat packing and wholesale business; Tyson, JBS, Cargill and National Beef. Not only does their market share create dominance but like other big companies their lobbying efforts work to harm the smaller regional or independent meat processing/packing plants with support for regulations that impose costs the smaller guys can’t meet as easily. Cattle ranchers don’t set the price of beef not in the store, not at wholesale and not even ‘on the hoof’ sales price to the meat packers. For the rancher it is largely take it or leave it due to lack of real competitive alternative.
The droughts caused havoc. Ranchers could buy hay/grain trucked in at premium prices due.to scarcity or cull their herds. They mostly chose the latter because that’s what made business sense. Some sold out completely and in particular those who didn’t have a family member who wanted to continue ranching. There’s thousands of smaller to mid size ranches and farms that close up each year for in large part lack of a younger generation to assume the responsibility.
Herds contracted very heavily and it will be several years before they recover. If we have another couple years of
severe drought then that adds more time to the eventual recovery as others go out of business and/or cull their herds all over again. It doesn’t help that some folks moving into rural ranching and farming areas don’t seem to understand how farms/ranches work and oppose the use of fertilizer or complain and organize protests v local independent/co-op slaughter houses and meat packers.
I don’t know the numbers… how much of our meat comes from feed lots vs acreage?
I grew up raising pasture beef and selling to friends. My niece/nephews still do it. Pasture was pretty much fixed for that style of farming, but vaccinations, milk replacer with some hay expense to get you through the winter weren’t getting cheaper. Kill, Cut & Wrap has gotten out of whack in that model. Price is usually pegged to the going rate per pound in the grocery store.
I suspect nearly all of the pasture raised goes to feed lots for to be fed grain for weight gain before slaughter with exception of a small amount of ranchers that have access to an indy/co-op slaughter house and sell direct to consumer.
IMO we need to push for govt policies to help create incentives to retain/increase the numbers of smaller operations. This ultimately helps the consumer b/c they have more choices, increases the quality of the beef product available, creates a distributed supply system, increases our domestic AG v foreign supply/dependency and is probably better for the land/communities with operations run by locals v a multinational conglomerate.