Democrats are scrambling to respond to Texas’s bold mid-decade redistricting push, but the reality is clear: they are poised to lose badly.
A partisan move by Texas to redraw its congressional maps in the middle of the decade to secure five more GOP seats in the U.S. House set off a clamor to replicate the effort in red and blue states.
Texas Republicans, backed by President Trump, kicked off the effort to lock in control of the House. Democrats staged their usual walkout stunt, but Gov. Greg Abbott made clear Republicans would not back down.
Past efforts by Democrats to abscond and deny Republicans a quorum similarly only delayed the passage of bills, but didn’t quash them. And Gov. Gregg Abbott vowed to keep calling the Legislature back until enough lawmakers are present to pass the redistricting proposal.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom tried to flex in retaliation, announcing his state would redraw maps to add Democrats. But unlike Texas, California faces a maze of restrictions, including its so-called independent commission and voter approval requirements. That means Newsom’s threat is more bark than bite.
Meanwhile, red states are moving fast. Missouri is on top of that movement.
A document obtained by The Associated Press shows the state Senate has received a $46,000 invoice for software licenses and staff training for redistricting.While Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe hasn’t officially announced a special session, Republican House Majority Leader Alex Riley told the AP it is “pretty likely” to happen. Riley added that he has had discussions with White House staff about it.
Ohio, Florida, and Kansas are weighing similar moves, and they actually have the power to deliver immediate GOP gains. Democrats in New York and Wisconsin, by contrast, are stuck in courts and constitutional amendments that will take years.
Even left-leaning commentators are admitting the obvious. Chris Cillizza posted bluntly on X:
That’s because Republicans control more states, more legislatures, and more governorships. The math is unforgiving: every GOP-led redraw can deliver seats by 2026, while Democrats are mired in legal roadblocks.
The mid-decade showdown is no longer a theory. It’s happening. And as one state after another lines up behind Texas, Democrats are being outflanked, outmaneuvered, and outnumbered.
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