Canada’s New Leader: Liberal Mark Carney or Conservative Pierre Polievre?
The Conservative Party’s lead in polls plummeted after Trump talked tariffs and Canada becoming our 51st state.
UPDATE 10:14 PM EST: CBC now projecting a Liberal Government.
CBC now projecting a Liberal Government.
Mark Carney wins his first election as an MP.
Also wins his first election as Liberal Leader.
Liberals were at 21% three months ago. pic.twitter.com/UCJICYEIUe
— David McCann (@dmcbfs) April 29, 2025
Canadians hit the polls today to vote on a new leader.
Will they stick with the Liberal Party and Prime Minister Mark Carney?
Or will they change to the Conservative Party and its leader Pierre Polievre?
All the polls will be closed by 10:00 PM ET.
The Conservative Party had a big lead in polls…until President Donald Trump started his tariff talks and annexing Canada. From Fox News:
“It looks like there will be a Liberal government, which seems to be what the polls point to, and it would be a very big surprise if the Conservatives won,” Angus Reid, founder and chair of the Angus Reid Institute, told Fox News Digital.
—
In an Angus Reid Institute poll released on Dec. 30, the Conservatives were in super-majority territory with 45% support, compared to the Liberals at 11%. The results of a poll released on Saturday had the Liberals at 44% with a four-point lead over the Conservatives at 40%.
“This really has been an extraordinary election in that, by all rights, Canadians had it with the Liberals’ woke policies and with their misspending and didn’t like Trudeau,” Reid said.
Carney took over when Justin Trudeau resigned his post.
Reid said Trump became the “most important issue in the country overnight.”
“That gave Mark Carney an opportunity to be the first out of the gate to say that we’re not going to put up with this – we’re a sovereign nation and we’re going to fight,” added Reid.
An Ipsos poll on April 21 showed the Liberals at 41% and the Conservatives at 38%.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, echoed Reid about Trump affecting the Canadian election.
It helps that Trump has focused more on China, but it might be too late.
Bricker told Fox News:
“When Donald Trump is in the news saying 51st-state stuff, that brings the focus back to the major issue that the Liberals lead on, which is dealing with him,” said Bricker.
“But over the past two weeks, Donald Trump has kind of gone dark on Canada. He’s been focused on China, U.S. government funding of Harvard University, and to the extent he’s talking about trade, it’s about global trade deals.”
That, said Bricker, has resulted in many Canadians returning to their pre-Trump main issue of affordability, through the lens of the Liberals running the government over the past decade.
Aaaaand Trump mentioned Canada becoming the 51st state this morning:
Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago. Look how beautiful this land mass would be. Free access with NO BORDER. ALL POSITIVES WITH NO NEGATIVES. IT WAS MEANT TO BE! America can no longer subsidize Canada with the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year that we have been spending in the past. It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!
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Comments
A truly weird choice by Trump.
The rank and file instinctively abhor talk of a leveraged buyout,
But, but…! It’s all part of his 7-D chess strategy!!!
Or something…
What better way to purchase another company than helping them destroy their own brand first.
Yes, I didn’t understand President Trumps doing what he did
Trump didn’t vote in the Canadian elections, Canadians did. I don’t understand them watching Baby Castro crater their country and destroy their freedoms then apparently say “yes, more please”.
we (in the USA) watched the same thing and said the same thing for the past four years under the decerebrate and his minions
Except that person was taking over for Trump who presided over a pretty good economy. Baby Castro did everything he could over the previous years to destroy Canadian society and it’s economy. Now Canada reacted by wanting even more from a globalist, WEF, Bank of England and Goldman Sachs person that wasn’t even living in the country and made his money overseas. Canada is in for a very rough ride for the foreseeable future.
If the Canadians want to flush their country down the toilet over what President Trump said, that says nothing about him and volumes about their stupidity.
Canadian here (also a constitutional lawyer). All the polls will be closed by 10 pm EST. Not 6:30 EST. Polls in British Columbia close at 7:00 PST.
Results will begin before 7:00 PST just like how you get reporting on eastern states before many mid and western states.
Will there be early/absentee/main-in ballots that need to be tabulated and if so, is that tabulation done prior to orthodox voting beginning or after its conclusion? Just curious if you’ll have your winner today or if it will take days or weeks, like it does in some US states.
Please keep us posted on the results!
I like Pierre. He’s pretty sharp. Is the other guy even a Canadian not that their liberal party members would care.
Thanks for backing the ultra-woke CCP backing anti-American globalist for leadership of one of the world’s biggest economies Donald Trump.
This should be when leftists finally lose Canada but Trump wanted another result.
Yep. Trump screwed the pooch by interfering in the Canadian elections. If he would just shut up for a change we would have had a conservative government in Canada to work with.
Canada is collapsing, Alberta is considering independence. They have already pulled out of the Canadian Pension Plan. Looks like a play out exactly as Trump would love
To be honest, I quit paying any attention to Canadian politics years ago because frankly their choices make no sense to me. I used to view them a liberally-biased but generally benevolent version of the U.S. who generally just left people alone. But things just kind of spiraled and the reaction to the Trucker’s Strike was just… horrifying. (Almost as Banana Republic as, say making an armed raid on the home of a former President and going through underwear drawers).
However, the Canadians did…nothing… and reelected the dictator who abused them.
So now I don’t care what they do to themselves.
I didn’t downvote your comment (though I might have felt tempted.
Please see my answer to diver64.
We have no right to criticize the Canadians after we sat and watched Mr. Biden thoroughly destroy the United States of America.
That may be true, but we can’t blame Biden’s election on something a Canadian politician said. We can blame it on our inability to properly conduct elections.
Apparently, Canada has that handled.
Which we forced him out of office for and his ditz of a VP got railroaded by Trump. Canada just voted for more of it.
But we definitely have a right to criticize the Canadians after THEY sat and watched Mr. Biden thoroughly destroy the United States of America… and then made the same damn choice.
“Ooh, that looked like it hurt. Can I try it?”
So Canada is thought likely to re-elect a Leftist government in response to Trump, and in Australia the media are suggesting it’s likely to be a Leftist government.
Has Trump’s election made the West Lefter?
No, but it has revealed who the grifters, cons, and the deranged are.
No, not his election, but his behavior since then, specifically his horrible, destructive tariffs, that have hurt Canada and Australia; voters hurting from the tariffs are not about to vote for a party that in their mind is associated with Trump, even if those parties have condemned the tariffs from the start. “Trump cost me my job, you’re Trump’s guy, I’m not voting for you”.
This analysis is way too Trump-centric.
Take a look at the opinion polls over time here
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
(Scroll down a bit to find the graph. It goes back to 2021 but you can adjust the time frame down to start in 2025)
Take a look at when the Liberal Party popularity takes an upswing. Here’s a hint … it happens between January 6 and 13, 2025 immediately after Justin Trudeau announced his resignation pending the selection of a new Liberal Party leader. While it is true there is another upswing in March 2025, the Liberals were rocketing up long before Trump was even inaugurated. Also interesting to note the crash in support for the NDP and other minor parties such as the Greens around the same time which is probably indicative of a shift to the Liberals after Trudeau was sacked.
Thanks for a bit of sanity!
Trudeau wasn’t sacked, he quit.
Sure, sure, he “quit”, right before he was to be shown the door.
You be you, Milhouse…
Did you even look at the graph you posted? The Liberal Party ‘upswing (as you put it), begins in earnest before the decline of the Conservatives because the far left NDP rallied around the liberal party when Trudeau announced his planned departure on January 6th.
More importantly, the conservative decline began the day after Trump’s Inauguration Day. On 1/20, they were at 44.8%, the highest number for the period covered by the graph. The very next day, it was 44.4% and it steadily fell almost every single day until stabilizing on March 21st. Conservatives recovered a few points over the next month.
Thanks for confirming what I said about the Liberals starting to recover once Trudeau resigned.
Not at the Tories’ expense. That’s what matters, and that’s on Trump.
He was replaced by an identical person who doesn’t look as nice who then benefitted from Trump’s tireless intervention, trade war and anti-Canadian rhetoric about destroying Canada.
Stop playing a dimwit you know full well that Trump owns the results.
If you actually spoke to Canadians you would see there is a national backlash against America caused entirely by Trump.
Why do we give a damn about who Canada elects?
Why does what Trump says have anything to do about who Canada elects?
If Canada is so weak that they have to choose a leftist as their whatever their King is called, that’s entirely up to them.
Canada: “hmmm, I’ll 💩 on my dinner plate because I don’t like what my next door neighbor had to say! Yummy!”
How’s that 💩 sandwich working out for you?
The conservatives in Canada were set for a solid win. Then Trump started talking about making Canada the 51st State, and then he put tariffs on Canadian goods, Canada’s economy is a mess and in a downward spiral. The liberals should have been routed. Instead, the election was framed as a referendum on Trump’s rhetoric and policies affecting working class Canadians, and the conservatives lost. This is mostly the result of Trump’s meddling.
If a few words from a neighbor can swing the election, then the conservatives weren’t so “set for a solid win”, were they?
The Tories had one issue that united them with most of the country — they didn’t like Mr. Trudeau. Turns out that most of Canada like the policies that the Liberals put into place this past decade, they just didn’t like the front man. It happens. Remove Trudeau and the reason for electing them disappeared.
Oh so you are good with destroy America comments from world leaders? You are good with world leaders waging an economic war on America unprovoked?
Love of Trump is no excuse to flush a brain down the toiler assuming you have one.
JR, that’s BS. There aren’t enough conservatives in Canada. The place is over run by leftists and is worse than California when it comes to one sided elections.
Also, please stop with your claims about who will win elections. According to your prognostications, both Hilary Clinton and Kamala Harris would be president.
Also, you didn’t mind when others meddle in our elections, such as the UK getting involved.
Then the Canadians should have come to heel very quickly if their economy is that fragile,
If Canada elects another liberal government, then they deserve everything they get. How stupid can they be to let Trump influence their votes?
This is nothing new. Long before Trump showed up on the political scene Canadian politicians loved to hate America. PM Pierre Trudeau was quite contemptuous of President Reagan, and considered him a dangerous moron obsessed with defeating Communism. When Canada decided to ditch the Kyoto treaty – to save their own energy industry from global warming fanaticism – Bush got blamed.
Iranian and Canadian leaders tend to share one dreary habit: they will paint America as the Great Satan to divert attention from their own failures. Iran is a theocracy where the people have little choice. What is Canada’s excuse?
This isn’t about politicians, it’s about ordinary Canadian voters, who were all set to vote Tory until Trump opened his big mouth.
Imagine a USA election campaign in which one party was widely perceived as for enhancing the US/UK alliance, and then King Charles — who doesn’t even speak for the UK government — were to open his mouth and grab international headlines, over and over, prattling about “healing the rift of 1775” and taking the America back into the UK. You know exactly what such talk would do to the party associated with the UK. And that’s even without hurting Americans in their wallets.
Pffft!
Most of the UK local leadership is Muzzie. They have their own problems and their leftists boot kickers (or is it sandal lickers) have quietly and meekly surrendered their nation to Islam.
Canada is not far behind.
The voters are the problem. They chose who they wanted and it has nothing to do with Trump.
But please, keep on pretending you aren’t a leftist Democrat.
Keep on pretending you aren’t a lying douchebag.
It’s got nothing to do with the UK’s leadership. Charles isn’t even involved in the UK’s leadership. Just as George III had little to nothing to do with how the UK treated the American colonies in the 1770s. But you know how Americans would react were Charles to prattle about annexing the USA. Why would you expect Canadians to react differently?
“Keep on pretending you aren’t a lying douchebag.”
Milhouse signaling that he has lost the argument.
See my comment above: the Canadian people weren’t sold on the Tories, they were sold on getting rid of Mr. Trudeau. He resigned and the reason to vote Conservative disappeared.
Their idiotic. Their finance minister who quit is another WEF shrew. Shes awful. This new guy Carney is a globalist who never stood for election before. The liberals are awful and to vote for them after the last 8 years or so of insanity is the very definition of insane. Nothing is going to change for Canadians. They should expect more of the same policies.
“Iran is a theocracy where the people have little choice. What is Canada’s excuse?”
Well, marxism has pretty much become a theocracy.
Interesting. Our elections have never been influenced by what Canada or even Europe does. And I’d bet 98% of our population couldn’t name the Mexican President or describe her politics. I would hope Canadians would vote to clean up their own shit before they worry about us.
Actually, that says a lot more about Canadian voters than it does about Trump. If those Canadian voters’ top priority is to show Trump the middle finger – if the growing fascism of the Liberal Party has not sufficiently alarmed them into taking action to stop it – then they deserve what happens to them. There is such a thing as a society being too stupid to survive – and that seems to be Canada’s self-chosen fate.
everyone appears to be blaming “the Canadian voter”
is everyone certain that it is “the average Canadian” who is actually voting
or does Canada have the same problem we do: problems with “voter” registration and voting machines that count inaccurately leaning left?
Canadian elections are honest. Paper ballots, hand counted, with scrutineers from all parties watching every move.
I need some fast-acting pills to stop laughing.
You have any? What are you charging?
Are Canadian elections fully auditable? If not, then they could hardly be honest.
Well here’s your result, and it wasn’t even close
For the record, in the closing days of the campaign, Carney promised to crack down on free speech.
Apparently, the people loved it.
Sorry, the liberal non Canadian whom Wants to take the very last w da weathering freedoms form the Canadians ..
Won, overwhelmingly, paper ballots
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/canadian-election-called-liberal-mark-carney-who-promises
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/canadian-election-called-liberal-mark-carney-who-promises/
Well, if Canada really wants to flush their entire country down the toilet because they don’t like trump, all they’ve proven is that they’re a bunch of retards
Eh. We did that when we elected Biden.
Unless, of course, we didn’t, which is what 15 million phantom Democrats tends to suggest.
Election of another liberal in Canada = stupid people doing stupid things. I wonder who his daddy is? Maybe Hugo Chavez?
Reality soon to set in. Virtue signaling won’t help them. Polievre must have been a true disaster, but Carney will not lead them in the right direction as he doubles down against the bogeyman.
I’ve watch Polievre on youtube for last few years. Yes they are postings from either fans or his party but he comes across pretty good as compared to liberals who always seem unhinged.
Saw him as well. Good for a quip. Postings are not competence. He apparently sntached defeat from the jaws of victory. Not sure it matters much, but Carney is more of the same and maybe even worse when it comes to personal freedom.
He didn’t, Trump did it for him. Trump destroyed him, and any hope for a friendly government in one of our most important allies.
Not much of an “ally” I would say. Just a bunch of grifters living off the protection and generosity of the US.
They made their bed…
What “generosity”? The US gives them nothing. The only security benefit they get is simply the result of the US protecting itself. We do it for ourselves, not for them.
Ridiculous, from top to bottom, as if he had no agency whatsoever, and especially the claim that ANY hope for a friendly government is DESTROYED! Zero-sum analysis worth zero.
They’re not our allies–
The US gives them nothing.
Not deals, not military help–
The only security benefit they get is simply the result of the US protecting itself.
Everyone loves free stuff and being nice. The world is run by midwits and always will be. Embrace the suck.
Evil never sleeps
People who just want the world to be nice, do
I guess it’s like Californians always voting Democrat. It’s just what they do in Canada now. It’s a leftist stronghold and no amount of reality is going to change how Canadians vote.
I find it simplistic and frankly annoying that supposedly intelligent political commentators are putting this down to Trump 😂😂 Almost like these political commentators actually don’t have a clue what’s really going on and instead befall back on the easy cop out because apparently it’s too hard to engage more than one active brain cell 🙄
It is down to Trump. It’s like California about to elect a true blue conservative governor and legislature, and Trump starts talking about rescinding California’s statehood, or imposing martial law on the state, or something equally stupid.
Yes…this is all tRumPS fault that Canadians love them some left wing extremism because the vast majority of the people who’s votes count the most are…wait for it…left wing extremists themselves 😂😂
But yeah, lets blame tRumP so you can is there smugly saying “I told you” to the mirror 😂
I suppose the Trudeau dynasty was also Trump’s fault.
Maybe Canada shouldn’t act like the 51st state if they don’t want to be the 51st state.
Also hadn’t realised Canada had gone to the polls, that’s how consequential they are these days 😂😂
I have no idea why Trump shived Polievre. But, it’s undeniable that the retarded ‘we’re gonna annex Canada’ rhetoric that began even before Inauguration followed quickly by the aggressive and wholly unprompted trade war created a political landscape that was toxic to Polievre and the conservatives. So, here we are. Now what?
Trump needs both a foreign policy and a trade win, quickly. We’re nearing our first month of this trade period with nothing to show for it other than shrinking supply chains and closing final assembly plants. With an eye-watering 10-point improvement over their last federal election in 2021, Carney now as a mandate: Fight Trump. With a ton of political capital to spend and instructions from his globalist masters to undermine and weaken Trump any way he can, I suspect the odds of a materially significant trade agreement with Trump have fallen considerably. All Canada has to do is tough it out for another 16-months. I suspect that’s exactly what’s going to happen.
This, I’m sorry to say, is the correct take. However we got to where we are right now, Carney’s overwhelming victory is bad news for Trump. I work in the automotive industry at a Tier I supplier. Automotive manufacturers with final assembly plants in the US (foreign & domestic) are soon going to have to make some tough decisions as those auto tariffs (are planned to) come online next week. Ford, which was facing economic hardship even before the trade war began and being particularly dependent on Canada for major components, will likely be the first to react. For instance, the V8 Coyote engine is manufactured in Ontario. That engine is used by the F-150 and the Mustang GT, by far the most popular Mustang. While Ford has a lot of engine options for the F-150 and those options are largely manufactured in the US, they don’t have those options in the Mustang (no one wants the 4-cyl Mustang). Ford will almost certainly shutter that Flat Rock, MI Mustang plant. There was pressure to end production of the Mustang even before this all happened because they only sold 44K units, a very small number for an auto maker that relies heavily on volume to offset fixed overhead. I’m sure the Mustang’s problem isn’t unique.
There simply isn’t enough margin in the automotive industry for manufacturers like Ford, GM, Toyota, Hyundai and Mercedes (makers who have final assembly plants in the US using foreign-made powertrains) to absorb a 25% increase in major component parts/assemblies…like engines & drivetrains. Trump has recently talked about exempting China from auto tariffs. But, as recently as last week, he said he was thinking about increasing the auto tariffs on Canadian cars & parts. This is all too bad because there seemed to be a recovery beginning in the industry. Just last night, GM beat estimates for Q1…and then immediately revised guidance downward for the rest of the year, because of the tariffs.
Its bad news for Canada as their economy relies more upon the good will of Americans than it does the other around.
And now they will get the reap what they have sown and those incapable of thinking for themselves, like your good self, get to play “I TOLD YOU SO” with your other low energy friends on the left 😂
Or they could bring the manufacturing of all the components to the USA. That’s an option as well. It isn’t as if they couldn’t be made in the US.
Maybe they temporarily pause production lines where they have a glut of unsold inventory of those models sitting on dealer lots. Frankly the prices on new vehicles have gotten to be unsustainable IMO. Can’t have a product for non luxury brand where the payment +IN is approaching equivalence to a mortgage or rent payment in middle America.
I suspect lots of companies in all sectors gonna need to adjust to less consumerism and ‘churn’ of product. The era of giant consumer debt funded by govt $ spending and the Fed reserve pumping endless liquidity may be winding down.
Meh. The Canadians have long since embraced a lefty socialist system. A couple of western Provinces which have more of a blue collar, work with their hands local economy reject that.
The polls were IMO a mirage based on anti Trudeau sentiment and when he resigned (and basically went silent) the liberals picked up steam. Also worth remembering that the new Liberal successor, Carney, wasn’t an elected politician till yesterday. He was able to leverage that into enough of a ‘political outsider’ status to recapture frustrated liberals.
Don’t underestimate the significant structural advantage for the liberals. They have a captured media to run what amounts to propaganda. They control all the institutions. Basically like the d/prog do here but without a Fox News or very much alt media. The Angus Reid poll from end of ’24 had the Conservatives at 45%, same.poll this week at 40%. Not a huge shift. The majority of Canadians sad to say like big gov’t and prefer govt intrusion/control to lower taxation, more individual liberty.
Trump didn’t screw up.
The CanadianConservative party screwed up.
Instead of leaning in to the idea of Make Canada Great Again they slavishly aped the Canadian left..
And lost their electorate.
Because the right in Canada WANTS Make Canada Great Again, not Trudeau lite.
If all they’re being offered is some trudeauesque idiocy, they might as well let the left drive Canada into the ground –in the hope that the right can find a leader with a brain instead of a panderer.
Besides, the sooner Canada falls, the sooner it can be annexed.
Yeah but lefties here dont want to accept that because then they cant blame tRumP! And thats all that matters to these low information people.
the only way to stop the welfare state is to stop funding it
not one cent to these anti human entities who pretend to help people when in reality they are destroying them
Mark Steyn had the best analysis on this:
https://www.steynonline.com/15249/losers-gotta-lose
In some ways Polievre reminds me of Romney in 2012, in which the latter tried to sit on his (imagined) lead and ran a limp “don’t frighten the horses” campaign that fizzled out in a similar fashion.
Interestingly, it looks like Carney will have to form a minority government, as his party did not secure a majority. The only non-separatist party he might form a coalition with – the N.D.P. – got obliterated, but it is possible that what’s left might be barely enough to form a government. In the campaign Carney blamed Trump in the same way the Iranian mullahs blame “the Great Satan” for their screwups and failures. Look for Carney to keep using the same dodge to shore up his weak position – a tactic that will be eagerly parroted by some on this blog.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadians-vote-election-dominated-by-concerns-about-trump-2025-04-28/
I’m not at all surprised to see shrieking from some on the right in this country following the Canadian election. Did people really think they kind of change we need was going to be painless? Now we have people demanding the status quo of America being the world’s “bitch” because it’s just too hard to be hated.
Pierre Polievre blew a SIXTY POINT LEAD and lost so badly that he lost his OWN SEAT in Parliament.
He didn’t just lose the PM spot, he’s now OUT of Parliament.
It’s unbelievable how badly the ‘conservative’ party in Canada screwed this up.
Thanks , Trump.
You made boomers living in the populous East flock to a WEFist stooge by stoking their fears.
Well done.
Who is actually advising you?
Is it preferable to have a leftist environutter on your border or a like – minded conservative?