Former Philly Mayor: Harris Needs ‘Obama-like Numbers’ in Philadelphia to Win State
Although it’s not impossible for Harris to achieve this goal, it is obviously a very heavy lift. As we all know, Harris is no Barack Obama.
Victory in Pennsylvania might be a bigger lift for Vice President Kamala Harris than she and her supporters would have us believe. On Sunday, Fox News reported that Harris needs to reach “Obama-like” numbers in Philadelphia to make up for deficits in other parts of the state.
Former Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, who served from 2008 to 2016, told the Columbia Institute of Global Politics last week that “in Philadelphia, this is all about turnout.”
Nutter said, “Pretty much the same in 2008 with Barack Obama. So it’s my general view that Vice President Harris needs to walk out of Philadelphia with a net 600,000 vote margin to offset what is going on in other parts of the Commonwealth.” [Emphasis added.]
The stakes are high in Pennsylvania for this presidential election: “In Philadelphia, this is all about turnout,” says former Mayor @Michael_Nutter.
Watch the full conversation on Pennsylvania and North Carolina with @MariaTeresa, @CaitLeg, Berwood Yost, and @TimNaftali:… pic.twitter.com/HiFo6puHBe
— Columbia Institute of Global Politics (@ColumbiaIGP) November 1, 2024
To put this number into perspective, President Joe Biden won more than 604,000 votes (81% of the total votes cast in Philadelphia in 2020).
Former President Trump received nearly 133,000 votes, 17.90% of the total votes, an improvement from 2016 when he won 108,748 votes or 15.37% of the votes.
The margin between Biden and Trump was 471,000 votes. If Nutter is correct, Harris needs approximately 130,000 more votes than Biden received (28% more), to bring her total to a net margin of 600,000.
And that’s if Trump’s performance in 2024 remains unchanged from 2020. Given that Trump is currently attracting more minority support than he did four years ago, there is reason to believe he will outperform his 2020 showing. Obviously, that means Harris will need more votes to get to “Obama numbers” in the city.
Although it’s not impossible for Harris to achieve this goal, it is obviously a very heavy lift. As we all know, Harris is no Barack Obama.
And she really is no Joe Biden either. As I see it, Biden, with his Scranton roots, likely appealed more to Pennsylvania voters than Harris, a far-Left San Francisco liberal.
At any rate, reporting from the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday, Fox News correspondent Bryan Llenas reminded viewers that “the Trump campaign knows they’re not going to win Philadelphia.” But, he said, if Trump can win a few thousand more votes in the city, he could win the state and even the election.
Llenas spoke to Philadelphia Republican Ward Chairman Vincent Fenerty, Jr., who said, if Trump can win “20[000], maybe 30,000 more votes, we’re going to win the state of Pennsylvania.”
Elon Musk has been focusing on a Trump victory in the Keystone State, and he’s extremely optimistic about his chances. In a recent post on X, Musk wrote: “The 2024 Pennsylvania Republican vs Democrat vote is now over 500k better than the same day in 2020, when Biden’s victory margin was only 80k! Moreover, yesterday there were more Republican early votes than Democrat. Pennsylvania will be a decisive Republican victory.”
The 2024 Pennsylvania Republican vs Democrat vote is now over 500k better than the same day in 2020, when Biden’s victory margin was only 80k!
Moreover, yesterday there were more Republican early votes than Democrat.
Pennsylvania will be a decisive Republican victory. pic.twitter.com/MQyvjc1exf
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 30, 2024
On Sunday, Musk posted even better news: “The gap between 2024 and 2020 is now over 600k, which almost 10% of the entire electorate!
Pennsylvania is on track for a major Republican victory.
The gap between 2024 and 2020 is now over 600k, which almost 10% of the entire electorate! pic.twitter.com/1IGuyjM0Xx
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 3, 2024
Although Democrats, by and large, have remained upbeat about Harris’s chances, they’ve also been hedging their bets.
As I see it, Republicans have appeared far more confident that their candidate will win. One of the most optimistic reads I’ve heard yet came from American Greatness writer Roger Kimball. He wrote: “We keep hearing that the race will be close. I think it will be like Patton’s Third Army racing across France in 1944.”
Elizabeth writes commentary for The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation and a member of the Editorial Board at The Sixteenth Council, a London think tank. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.
DONATE
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.
Comments
Now they know how many bogus ballots to manufacture.
After all the Democrats’ shenanigans in 2020, they won’t be able to get away with quite as much this year. They’ll find ways I’m sure, but it won’t be on the same scale – at least I hope not!
Biden did “better” than Obama.!!! But then Harris’s background is almost as mysterious as Obama’s. Montreal school girl versus Kenyan
She is literally female Barry Hussein.
She doesn’t have his charisma.
I recall clearly in 2008 that Philly had precincts where vote totals were over 100% of registered voters, and other precincts where the votes were 100% for Obama without a single R vote.
Those kind of Obama numbers, you mean?
Her word salads in French must be frightening!
Find some, would you? Milhouse insists this has never happened in history.
There were similar stories in Wisconsin and Michigan IIRC.
That did not happen. John Kerry also had things “seared, seared” on his memory, that didn’t happen.
What you remember is not this happening, but reading false claims that it had happened. There are always such claims made, and they’re always false. Nobody can ever produce the actual data, because they never exist.
Democrats are experts at ballot-stuffing, especially in Philadephia, and they know better than to produce obviously fake results like that.
If there’s a precinct that reports 100% of its vote for the Democrat, that only proves there was no fraud at that precinct, and that is really the honest result. Because when the Democrats are rigging a precinct they always make sure to throw some Republican votes in.
Obama-like numbers?
No way will she get that. She’ll easily win the ghetto votes but not with beyond-the-stratosphere numbers.
Yeah, I don’t think she’s likely to win the ghetto vote either 🤷♂️
Well, four years ago they got most of the country to swallow that the guy who campaigned from his basement and couldn’t fill the stands of a T-ball field at his rallies got more votes than any democrat candidate in history.
I’m guessing they won’t be too deterred by minor details like “Harris got more votes than there are voting age citizens” Why, that’s just a conspiracy theory dontchaknow.
Voter fraud is like the old saying “when you come for the King you best not miss.” A local person might go along with it if they believe that those who are asking for it will win, but it is a different matter when the other party wins and suddenly a deep audit that they weren’t expecting reveals a lot of fiddling.
“I’m just a stupid newcomer and they told me this was legal” is apparently an unassailable defense.
When was there ever a deep audit or even a shallow one?
Courts refused to even look at the cases. They said Trump did not have “standing,”
I remember.
Before election? Not ripe.
After? Moot.
DemoncRats have no need to worry about Philadelphia. The votes will be manufactured as needed. It not who votes that counts, it’s who counts the votes.
As before, watch for large semis full of ballots entering Philly late on Tuesday. They come in late because they have to wait for the tally to see how many “Extra” Harris votes they need.
Let’s hope the Republican Party is actually prepared for the shit that went down in 2020 with the magical shutting down of all counting across the swing states and somehow without question Biden just took the lead like that’s the way it was through the entire night!!
If Republicans aren’t prepared for these games again this time then we are all f88ked.
It doesn’t matter if they are prepared. No court in 2020 allowed a Republican election lawsuit to proceed. No evidence gathering to find evidence of fraud was permitted, you had to come in with proof beforehand. Naturally that was an insurmountable bar. Nothing has changed since that would alter that.
Are Obama-like numbers made up, like his Social Security number?
His numbers may have been made up, but his SSN is genuine and there is nothing suspicious about it.
Trump needs enough votes to overcome the margin of cheating. Time will tell
imagine living in those big blue helllllholes!!
Philly Wiseguys: you understand there’s a fee for last minute jobs?
I have not checked the betting odds average yet today, The odds narrowing over the weekend sent me into panic mode.
Me too. Right after the Des Moines Iowa poll came out on Saturday night, the margin narrowed to single digits. Now it’s back to 17.2%.
I cracked while waiting at the DMV. DJT was @55% in the Real Clear Polling average of the bookies.
One of many asterisks: my gambler friends said not to read into the final odds as many people will try to hedge their earlier bets.
Harris may not be Obama, but the Philadelphia vote fraud machine is aggressive, and Philadelphia basically controls the statewide vote.