Which Party Will Win Control of the Senate?

Which Party Will Win Control of the Senate?

Although this election cycle has been anything but predictable, at this moment in time, the Republican Party’s chances of winning back control of the Senate are looking pretty good. 

This was always going to be a tough year for Democrats. Republicans, with only 10 seats to defend this cycle, have a very favorable Senate map. Democrats, on the other hand, have 19 seats to defend plus four more that are currently held by independents who caucus with the Democrats. 

But even with an unfavorable Senate map, until President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate with former President Donald Trump in June, Democratic candidates (especially sitting senators) had been performing quite well in the polls. In fact, many Democrats were outperforming Biden by wide margins. 

The first polls released after the debate showed that Biden’s abrupt drop in the polls was already taking a toll on a handful of Senate races considered by RealClearPolitics to be “toss ups.” 

Toss up races include Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Of these races, Republicans have an excellent chance of winning Florida and Montana, and a shot at Ohio and possibly Pennsylvania. Democrats are likely to win Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

The impact was more noticeable among candidates who continued to support the president. Leaders worried that any Democratic candidate who continued to back Biden after his cognitive decline was exposed in such a humiliating, spectacular, and irreversible way was telling voters they think it’s OK to reelect a senile president. 

This is one of the most frequently cited reasons for Biden’s exit from the race. Party leaders worried that his continued presence at the top of the ticket would hurt their chances of retaining the Senate majority and taking back control in the House. 

And they weren’t wrong. 

Republicans have 72 percent chance of winning Senate.https://t.co/DM39WYaRvl

— Tony Seruga (@TonySeruga) August 29, 2024

The Remington Research Group was the first polling firm to release post-debate survey results.

RRG’s poll of the Montana Senate race showed Republican challenger Tim Sheehy with a 5-point lead over incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), the first survey of this race ever to show Sheehy with a lead. Tester’s leads in previous polls had ranged between 2 and 9 points.

While RRG is a right-leaning pollster, the four subsequent polls of this race have all shown Sheehy with leads of 2, 6, 7, and 6 points. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls in this race, Sheehy is up by 5.2 points. 

What happened? Well, the senator remained silent after the debate. Perhaps prodded by the RRG poll, Tester issued a statement that said, “President Biden has got to prove to the American people — including me — that he’s up to the job for another four years.” Not exactly a call for Joe Biden to go, but he was heading in that direction. Too little, too late?

It doesn’t appear that his decision to skip the Democratic National Convention in Chicago helped him to reverse the trend.

Another incumbent, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), continued to support Biden. Up until Biden’s debate, Casey had maintained a solid lead over his Republican opponent, Dave McCormick, since polling began in this race. The RRG poll showed Casey leading by a single point. A CNN poll released on Wednesday found the pair tied.

Although the post-debate RRG poll found incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) ahead of his Republican challenger, business man Bernie Moreno, by 6 points, which was slightly higher than his lead in previous polls of the race, Brown’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average of polls has dropped from 5.2% to 3.6% since that time. Many analysts consider Brown to be vulnerable.

Meanwhile, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) maintains a strong lead over Republican rival Eric Hovde. And Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ)  and Rep. Elise Slotkin (D-MI) have held onto solid leads in their respective races and are expected to prevail in November.

Democrats currently control the Senate by a margin of 51-49. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice is almost guaranteed to win the open seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, who is retiring. In fact, Justice’s victory is so certain that pollsters don’t even bother to survey this race. Assuming Justice wins and Florida Republican Rick Scott keeps his seat, (where he currently leads in the RealClearPolitics average by a margin of 4.3 points), the margin would be 50-50. 

Republicans need to flip only one additional seat to win control of the Senate. Which state is most likely to produce the 51st seat for the GOP? Montana. Which is precisely what RealClearPolitics predicts.

As far as Senate elections go, I think the GOP is narrowly favored to retake the Senate.

I think the GOP will probably hold of their current seats and flip West Virginia with Joe Manchin retiring. It then comes down to Montana and Ohio. pic.twitter.com/8T66uFlgHs

— Chris Niland (@jim_niland) September 4, 2024

Elizabeth writes commentary for The Washington Examiner. She is an academy fellow at The Heritage Foundation and a member of the Editorial Board at The Sixteenth Council, a London think tank. Please follow Elizabeth on X or LinkedIn.

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