My “Hot Take” on the September 10, 2024, Debate.
TRANSCRIPT (auto-generated, may contain transcription errors)
This is my hot take on the debate that took place last night, September 10, 2024.It’s not exactly “hot” because it took place last night, but I’ve got to tell you, I didn’t feel like doing it right after. I was so frustrated I almost threw things at the TV. I think a lot of you probably felt the same way.I felt frustration like I do at every debate that takes place with the mainstream media as moderators. This was particularly atrocious—there’s no doubt about that.Why do Republicans keep going back to their abusers? I think we need a psychological profile, but it’s expected. It’s the norm. This was particularly bad, and it stood in huge contrast to the legitimate job that CNN did back in June for the first debate, but that’s beside the point. We can’t worry about the moderators, though our anger is legitimate—it’s just not enough, because it’s to be expected.The other frustration I had was that this was an enormous missed opportunity to show the world, to show tens of millions of people—I don’t know what the final numbers were across all platforms, but clearly in the multiple tens of millions—what a fraud Kamala Harris is. How she’s flip-flopped, how she’s changed her positions, how there’s really nothing to her career.And it didn’t come across. The case was not made, and that was extremely frustrating to watch.So, it’s not surprising that the snap polling, including by groups that conservatives trust, like Trafalgar, is showing that Harris “won” the debate. And I think that’s true. She was more polished, more prepared; she had her canned barbs. But there’s something strange going on here. While she won the debate, Democrats always come across in snap polling as winning the debates. I saw people sharing on X the history of snap polling after debates with Donald Trump, first with Hillary and then with Biden. In every one of those debates—six in total—clear majorities said that Trump lost the debate. I’m not sure what to read into that.So, it was anger at the moderators, frustration that Trump wasn’t making a lot of the points I thought he could have made, but he was being Trump. And I’ve misjudged his appeal to voters and his electoral success so many times, so it is what it is.But there’s something else I took away from this—and it’s showing on the screen just to the side of me here. One thing I really noticed throughout was the faces that Harris was making—very condescending, very mocking, very childish, actually. I think that’s the one thing I remember more than anything about the debate.Now, I think Trump did a very good job, even though he didn’t make the points I thought he could have, like showing how she flip-flopped. He hit hard on the border and the economy, and I think that may have a lasting impact.What’s showing up in the focus groups—ones I’ve seen not by right-wing groups, but CNN, Reuters, NBC—there seems to be a disconnect between who they think won the debate and how they’re reacting substantively.Trafalgar was consistent with the others, showing a 15-point win for Harris in terms of who won the debate, but no movement in who people were going to vote for. CNN was interesting—they had an even larger, 20-plus-point win for Harris, but found that on the key issue—voters’ most important issue—the economy, Trump actually improved over pre-debate polling. Similar findings came from Reuters and NBC.Whatever went wrong here, whatever our frustrations are, it’s not clear how it’s going to impact the electorate.It’s still a missed opportunity, and that’s what I keep coming back to. I don’t think anyone who’s going to vote for Donald Trump will change their mind because of this, and frankly, I don’t think anyone who’s going to vote for Kamala Harris will either. But it’s not clear this moved the election or made a big result.Now, I’ve seen people like Frank Luntz saying this cost him the election, but I think it’s too early to say that. It may have, or it may not. But what should have happened is she should’ve had a collapse—maybe not as big as Biden, but no damage was really done to her in terms of polling. That’s frustrating because this was an opportunity to show the country who she really is.So, my hot take—though it’s not so hot, as things have cooled off—is that Trump was Trump. He seems to have resonated with voters focusing on the economy and made gains there. He didn’t score the points he could have and should have scored.Harris was smug—your typical smug liberal. I see it all over X and elsewhere: They’re thrilled with her facial expressions, thrilled with how she mocked him visually while he was talking, and that was deliberate. There’s no question that was deliberate—that was part of their plan.I just don’t know how that’s going to play. I don’t think it’s going to play well. I don’t think anybody’s coming out of this feeling warm and fuzzy about Kamala Harris. If her goal was to raise her stature, I don’t think she accomplished that.I don’t think she did damage to Trump. After everything that’s been said about Trump in the last 10 years, it’s hard to imagine anyone doing damage at this point. People who are going to vote for him will vote for him.But I think she missed an opportunity as well. She needed to elevate herself, and a lot of the focus group comments I’ve seen said she didn’t convince them she would do anything different.One thing I will give Trump 100% credit for was his closing two minutes, where he hit on the theme that if she’s going to do all these things, why hasn’t she done them in the last three and a half years?Very frustrating night—practically throwing things at the computer. I won’t say the TV because I don’t have a TV anymore, but throwing things at the computer. A lot of frustration with the moderators—they manipulate our elections every time. Can we stop going back for more abuse? Can we make that pledge, at least?That’s how I come away from it. My hot take is I’m not sure how this moved the election, but it was a missed opportunity to deal a deep blow to the Harris campaign.Now we move on. There are almost two months left, and we’ll see if the trends, which were moving toward Trump, continue or reverse.All around, if I had to put a single word to what happened last night, it would be: frustration.
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