Does Surging Support Among Black and Jewish Voters Mean Trump Might Win New York?
New Sienna poll has Trump trailing Biden by just 8% in the Empire State
Trump shocked everyone earlier this year when he claimed that he could win New York. Democrats laughed uproariously at the very thought, and Republicans kind of cringed.
But a series of events have shaken the nation, not the least of which are the bogus charges against Trump in New York and the Democrat Hamas terrorist supporters coupled with Democrats’ open hostility not only to Israel but to Jewish people both at home and abroad.
The travesty of the New York charges, trial, and conviction is so obvious and undeniable that Democrats who hate Trump are forced to admit it.
Three Trump-deranged dudes having to admit the NY “hush money case” was not legitimate and the whole “convicted felon” strategy has backfired for the anti-Trumpers. Delicious.
— Rita Panahi (@RitaPanahi) June 22, 2024
Add in the Democrats’ coddling of Hamas supporters and their violence on campuses and elsewhere, and there is a serious distrust of and dislike for Biden.
Overall . . . Biden’s support among Jewish voters declining by 14 percent over the past four years.
The poll’s findings come amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas militants, where Biden has faced criticism from some in the Jewish community. On October 7, the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an attack on southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking over 200 hostages. Israel subsequently launched a war against Hamas in Gaza that has killed over 34,000 people, The Associated Press reported, citing Gaza health officials. Since October 7, a war between Israel and Hamas has continued, with the U.S. supplying Israel with several military aid packages.
. . . . Biden also faced criticism from other Jewish individuals following the pause of weapons.
“Delaying arms transfers to Israel is dangerous…America must continue to stand firmly with our ally Israel as it works to defeat Hamas and defend its citizens,” the American Israel Public Affairs Committee said last month, the Times of Israel reported.
Serious concerns about both the economy and the Biden border crisis are also contributing to Biden’s historic unpopularity.
But polls show Biden diverging from other Democrats to a dramatic degree. The president is not only unpopular — he is more so than both Trump and Obama were at the same point in the fourth year of their presidencies, according to Gallup. He has lost some support among key building blocks of his 2020 coalition, including Black voters and young people. And Republicans hold the advantage on two of the top issues of this election: the economy and immigration.
Sienna released a poll showing that Trump is trailing Biden in New York by just 8%, with a lot of the new support coming from disenchanted black and Jewish New Yorkers.
Donald Trump is within striking distance of President Biden in a new poll of New York voters — with the former president boosted by big gains among black and Jewish Empire Staters.
If the election were held today, Biden would receive 47% of the vote to 39% for Trump, Siena College found in a survey of 805 registered voters.
The poll’s margin of error — 4.1% — means the race could be even closer.
“We are going to win New York!” the presumptive Republican nominee, 78, claimed at a May 23 South Bronx rally, where he courted black and Hispanic voters by arguing they were being badly impacted by record illegal immigration under Biden, as well as by economic issues such as high inflation.
The Siena survey found that Trump is supported by 29% of black New Yorkers and 26% of Latino residents ahead of his Nov. 5 rematch against 81-year-old Biden.
. . . . Biden narrowly leads Trump among Jewish voters with 52% support, while the former president has 46% backing in the demographic — following months of vacillation by Biden over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.
Trump secured just 30% of the Jewish vote nationwide in 2020 after getting 24% in 2016, according to exit polls.
I still find it hard to imagine Trump winning deep blue New York, but who knows? If these numbers hold (including a 10 point lead among independent voters), November could be lit. But, as Insty, is always reminding us, don’t get cocky.
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Comments
Trump will not win NY. There are too many communists and useful idiots in NYC.
Trump might struggle to win against a dead body in NY State.
(And that’s s comment on their urban voters, not a knock on Trump)
Too many ultra white rich guys in NY (NYC) to even come close to winning NY
Even if Trump wins NY based on lawfully cast ballots unlawfully cast ballots will more than make up the difference.
Nixon won New York.
And Reagan won new York twice –all while being hated on in the media nearly as much as Trump.
And both times the left thought they had NY sewn up.
1. it doesn’t matter who votes … it is who counts the votes
2. it is very possible that Trump does not face resident Biteme in Nov at all. if Biden chokes or sh*ts himself on TV they will have a replacement ready to go
prob. Mooch …
I hope Im wrong …
Yeah I dunno about that one. The optics of replacing someone who everyone in the Democrat media called “of sound mind and body” will be a mountain even the media Sherpa’s won’t be able to climb.
They are stuck with Biden and they absolutely deserve him to be their candidate.
You completely underestimate the Dems’/Media’s ability and willingness to gaslight.
They’ll replace him with Kamala last minute and hope that her sex and race make her impossible to criticize and thus electorally unassailable.
This discussion presumes that Biden will be the Democratic nominee. There is a non-negible chance that he is replaced at the Democratic National convention.
“non-negligible”
The DNC is already in the process of their ‘virtual nominating convention’. They got all the important things being done online before the late Aug Convention in Chicago. If they swap horses in Chicago they lose ballot access in Ohio. Potentially in other States as well depending on how their exceptions to the qualification date were drafted. So let’s say State X changed the ballot qualifying date to accommodate a late August timeline for the DNC, so long as they stick with Biden no problem. BUT if they swap horses then one might make the argument that the ‘virtual nomination’ in July rendered the late August convention moot, that the DNC nominee was Biden and any ‘new horse’ is both too flipping late to qualify for ballot access and an unfair second bite at the apple.
Will States have the stones to do this? A few election cycles ago I would have unreservedly said no. In today’s political climate of pursuing maximum political partisan advantage? Could get very messy.
Bottom line IMO is if the d/prog want to bail on Biden as the nominee they gotta do it in July before the close of the ‘virtual nominating convention’ or risk losing ballot access in States that decide to play partisan hardball. They made their bed so no whining that it is hard.
No. Once they have a name on the ballot, they can swap someone else in even after the election, right until the day the electors vote. Votes cast in November are not for the nominee himself, they’re for the slate of would-be electors whom the DNC nominated, and they’re pledged to vote as the DNC tells them.
Uh huh.
According to their National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, if Trump wins the majority of votes nationwide, many states have passed laws that the electors must vote for Trump.
We will see how that compact really is if Trump does get the majority. Highly unlikely, but it could happen.
Most of those electors will still vote for the meat puppet.
The “compact” doesn’t take effect until it controls a majority of electors. That’s unlikely to happen this year.
Milhouse
As you correctly point out in the Presidential election we choose a slate of electors not a particular person; the candidate name is effectively a proxy for that slate of electors. I submit that by this logic there is no need to replace the name on the ballot so Biden would still be the ‘choice’ on the ballot not the ‘new horse’ chosen.
Mechanically it is clearly impossible to print and distribute ballots with name change the day prior to election day. One impediment is the category of ‘Military/Overseas’ ballots which have a Federal statutory requirement to be mailed Mailed a minimum of 45 days prior. That seems like a hard date. Each State has their own rules and can set that date earlier and absent Congressional legislation to counter/override those dates the States remain free to do so.
You are correct correct that the d/prog PARTY itself wouldn’t necessarily lose ballot access in the Presidential Contest. I submit that States may play hardball in keeping the candidate name ‘proxy’ for electors listed as Biden v whatever new horse, if any, is chosen. If I wasn’t clear about that in the original post I apologize.
Yes, I agree, the name on the ballot would remain “Biden/Harris”, but the DNC could publicize that a vote for that ticket would in fact be a vote for the new team they pulled out of a hat yesterday. Or it could not publicize that, let people think they’re voting for Biden/Harris, and then pull the switcheroo after the election. Depending on which way it seems to them would get more votes.
The virtual convention. The clock is ticking. He could be out in six days.
You may be right. The 27 June debate with Trump is Biden’s final dress rehearsal. If he screws it up, the virtual convention could claim justification for kicking him out.
It is puzzling (to me) as to why Biden agreed to this early debate. An early debate is a much larger threat to Biden’s candidacy than to Trump’s. We all know that Biden is a master of self preservation (e.g. choosing Kamala Harris as his VP running mate). I am wondering if Biden was FORCED to accept this early date to prove his capability to continue on as the Democratic nominee.
In a way, I hope that Biden does well in this debate to avoid a consensus among various D constituencies for his removal. The longer that Biden holds on, the messier it becomes to remove him and the greater the potential for D infighting and disunity.
Compare the picture of Bidet at the top with a picture of the Banjo Boy,
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/pDlZLsJJkVA/hqdefault.jpg
^^^Now that’s funny, I don’t care who you are
I certainly hope the Democrats think so. Every dollar they spend trying to keep from losing New York is a dollar they can’t spend trying to steal Georgia, Arizona, or Nevada, etc., again.
Hopefully, Zuckerbucks, Gates, and SorAss money isn’t enough to overcome.
DJT win NY? I think it is a possibility with Rep. Bowman as his VP. And I’ve heard that Hell is about to freeze over any day now!
Democrats win any close race.
Well, Judge Judy has weighed in on the controversy, so that pretty much settles it.
https://www.aol.com/news/judge-judy-renders-verdict-ny-115923421.html
With due respect to Milhouse, electors can vote for anyone, but to win the presidency, you need a majority. If Biden wins in November, they can swap him out, but the question is, who will the people vote for. Or against.
The question was whether they can swap him out after the state registration deadlines, which are coming up hard. The suggestion was that they couldn’t, but that’s incorrect. They can swap him out any any time, before or after the election. Of course voters will choose how to vote, so whether and when they make the swap will depend on whehther they think he’s gaining them votes or losing them.
Open borders biden forcing blacks to the back of the waiting line behind illegal aliens. smh
Blacks will toe the line for the Democrats as they always do, no matter how badly the Democrats mistreat them. If Kamala replaces Joe? They vote for Kamala no matter how much they think Trump is the better candidate.
Sure, it’s possible Trump could win enough votes to take New York City, and even the state, but can he beat the Democratic Machine there? That I think is highly improbable .
As had been said before:
“It’s not who votes that matters, it’s who counts the votes”…
pro americans could win every single election contest in 2024
and you couldnt root out the damage down to the last 5+ generations of american/american culture
BUT IT WOULD BE A NICE START
Yes, the kinetic energy caused by these surging negroes and Jews will send Tump into the polling stratosphere.
Seen this movie before…it is a dud.
They’re probably still angry that PDJT whacked their SALT writes off amounts.
Given the Jew-hatred in NYS these days, Adolf Hitler has a better chance of carrying NY than Trump does.
And why not? He’d be the perfect Dem candidate – LGBT, vegetarian, socialist, pro-Palestinian, persecuted Christian churches, praised Islam, and believed in the primacy of race.
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