The past three days have seen almost 40 Israeli hostages reunited with family in Israel. No one can look at the scenes and the released hostages and not be happy.
No one other than Hamas and the terrorist groups know for sure how many hostages they still have, how many are alive and how many are dead. I’ve seen reports that Qatar is saying there are 40 women and children hostages not under Hamas’ control – likely with other terrorist groups, criminal gangs, and some of the “civilians” who joined in the October 7 massacre.
Hamas has been using the releases as part of its psychological warfare, breaking up families contrary to the ceasefire agreement. Many if not most of the released hostages still have family members (mostly men) held hostage. Israel wants everyone back, but as I have pointed out from Day 1, on October 7, freeing all hostages alive and eliminating Hamas were not consistent:
The hostages held in Gaza will not be recovered alive unless Israel gives major concessions and leaves Hamas in power. While of course Israel wants to get them back alive, Israeli military options are severely constrained if that is the goal. Hamas has grown comfortable taking hostages and using them as shields to temper Israeli military responses. The goals of toppling Hamas and getting the hostages back alive are not consistent. Israel faces a tough choice.
Israel agreed to release 150 imprisoned terrorists for 50 hostages over a four-day period.
That period is over tomorrow. Perhaps reflecting how much damage Hamas suffered, thousands of its members including some of the most senior terrorists, Hamas announced that it wanted to extend the ceasefire daily for the continued release of hostages.
The statement published by Hamas appeared to be the first time that Gaza’s ruling terror group has formally expressed its desire to extend the truce, which has allowed for the first break in the intense fighting since the outbreak of war.Earlier Sunday, a Hamas source told AFP that the terror group was interested in extending the truce for 2-4 days, indicating that 20-40 more hostages may be freed this week….US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in an interview on Sunday that the pause could be “extended for another day, or two days, or three days or even more.”“The ball is in Hamas’s court on that because what Israel has said is that it is prepared to pause another day of fighting for every 10 hostages that Hamas releases,” he told ABC’s “This Week.”“If the pause stops, the responsibility for that rests on the shoulders of Hamas, not on the shoulders of Israel,” the top Biden aide asserted.He acknowledged that the truce has allowed Hamas the ability to “refit and retool” and to “generate propaganda” on social media.Despite this, he later told NBC’s “Meet the Press,” the reason that Israel and Netanyahu ultimately chose to accept the risks that accompany the hostage deal is “because of the benefit they’re getting, which are these incredible images of people being reunited with their families — the humanity of it, the sense of accomplishment of that and the possibility and promise that more and ultimately, all of the hostages will come home.
Netanyahu agreed today, after speaking to Biden, but promised to renew the attacks on Hamas once the hostage releases ended.
Statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:
“We brought back another group of hostages this evening – women and children, and we are moved from the depths of our hearts, the entire nation, when we see this reuniting of families. It simply stirs the soul.I have just spoken with President Biden with great emotion, also over the little Avigail, of course. What a joy it is to see her with us, But, on the other hand, how sad it is that she is returning to a reality in which she has no parents. She has no parents – but she has an entire nation that embraces her and we will take care of all her needs. Beyond this, I would like to say that there is also an outline that says that it is possible to release an additional ten [hostages] each day. That would be welcome.At the same time, I also told President Biden that at the end of the outline, we will go to realizing our goals with full force: Eliminating Hamas, ensuring that Gaza will not go back to being what it was and – of course – releasing all of our hostages.After having been in Gaza today, where I met with our brave and heroic soldiers, reservists and conscripts, with fire in their eyes, I am convinced that we will succeed in this mission – because we have no other choice.”
How much time that buys Hamas depends on how many live hostages they really have. Likely at least a few more days.
But at some point the supply of hostages runs out, and not just numerically. The hostages released so far have been mostly the elderly and children. The coming days will likely see mostly women released, plus a few more children. That will leave over 100 Israeli men left behind, including soldiers. Hamas must be calculating that the international pressure (Egypt, Qatar) on it will be lowered once the women and children are released. Hamas is going to hang onto the Israeli men unless Israel pays an incredible price in the release of senior terrorists, not just the low level terrorists released to date.
Will Israel resume the war to eliminate Hamas after a cumulative 1-2 week pause?
To date Israel has been remarkably united, but that will not go on forever.
No matter how much damage Hamas and the other terrorist groups have suffered, if the Hamas leadership survives inside Gaza, they win.
This A.F. Branco cartoon from 2014 sums it up:
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