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Israel Agrees To Trade 150 Imprisoned Terrorists For 50 of 240 Hostages, Plus Multi-Day Ceasefire

Israel Agrees To Trade 150 Imprisoned Terrorists For 50 of 240 Hostages, Plus Multi-Day Ceasefire

This appears to be a big win for Hamas, which gets time to regroup, reload, and relocate, while still holding almost 200 hostages. I hope I’m wrong. I hope that Israel frees as many hostages as possible and then is able to resume the offensive to crush and eliminate Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the other terror groups.

The Israeli government tonight agreed to a terrorist-for-hostage deal. While the full and precise terms are not yet clear, the general parameters reported by the Times of Israel are:

In an unprecedented vote early Wednesday morning, Israel’s cabinet approved an agreement to secure the release of roughly 50 hostages who were abducted into Gaza during the October 7 terror onslaught.

A government statement announcing the result of the vote did not specify how ministers voted. Despite expressing earlier opposition to the agreement, the far-right Religious Zionism party voted in favor, with only members of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s ultranationalist Otzma Yehudit faction voting against, according to Hebrew media.

Not all details of the agreement have been formally released to the public, but an Israeli government official briefing reporters on Tuesday said the deal is expected to see the release of 50 living Israeli citizens, mostly women and children, in groups of 12-13 people per day….

In exchange, Israel has agreed to a ceasefire for at least four days for the first time since the outbreak of the war.

The government confirmed those terms of the agreement following the vote, without offering details regarding any of the other Israeli concessions.

“The Israeli government is committed to bringing all the abductees home. Tonight, the government approved the outline for the first stage of achieving this goal, under which at least 50 abductees – women and children – will be released over a span of four days, during which there will be a lull in the fighting,” the statement said.

“The release of every ten additional abductees will result in an additional day of respite,” it added.

The Jerusalem Post is reporting “up to 80” hostages will be released, presumably if the 4 day ceasefire is extended:

The government approved early Wednesday morning a partial hostage deal that includes a pause in the Gaza war in exchange for a release of up to 80 out of over 239 people seized by terrorists during Hamas’ infiltration of southern Israel on October 7.

“We have a difficult decision before us tonight, but it is a correct decision,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the start of the meeting.

Opponents of the deal warned that it will harm Israel’s ability to secure the release of all the hostages and complicate Israel’s military campaign to oust Hamas from Gaza. They also warned that it will be difficult to resume the war once it has been temporarily halted.

Barak Ravid at Axios reports:

Details: In the first phase of the two-phase deal, Hamas is expected to free about 50 Israeli women and children held in Gaza, while Israel is expected to release about 150 Palestinian prisoners, mostly women and children over the four-day pause.

  • As part of the deal approved by the Cabinet, Israel will allow around 300 aid trucks per day to enter Gaza from Egypt. More fuel will also be allowed in during the pause in fighting, according to an Israeli official.
  • In the second phase, Hamas could release dozens more women, children and elderly people in return for Israel extending the ceasefire by several more days.
  • The Cabinet decision came after more than five hours of discussions on the deal.
  • It is unclear when the deal will be implemented.

Other reports indicate that Israel agreed that for six hours a day it would not fly drones over Gaza to monitor Hamas and other terrorist movements. Joe Truzman reports that Hamas is claiming these are part of the terms:

The cessation of air traffic in the north for six hours a day, from 10:00 am to 4:00 pm. The cessation of air traffic in the south for the duration of the four days. During the ceasefire, Israel commits to not harming or arresting anyone in all areas of the Gaza Strip. Israel guarantees the freedom of movement of people (from north to south) along Salahadeen street.

Netanyahu’s office released this statement:

Statement by the government of Israel:

The Government of Israel is obligated to return home all of the hostages.

Tonight, the Government has approved the outline of the first stage of achieving this goal, according to which at least 50 hostages – women and children – will be released over four days, during which a pause in the fighting will be held.

The release of every additional ten hostages will result in one additional day in the pause.

The Government of Israel, the IDF and the security services will continue the war in order to return home all of the hostages, complete the elimination of Hamas and ensure that there will be no new threat to the State of Israel from Gaza.

Make no mistake, this is a huge victory for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (released in the deal to free Gilad Shalit), who will be viewed by Palestinian society (which overwhelmingly supported the October 7 Massacre) as a hero for freeing terrorists from Israeli prisons. He also buys Hamas and other terrorist groups, which are being systematically destroyed on the battlefield and in the alleyways and tunnels, a pause to regroup, relocate, and rearm. Since Hamas still will control almost 200 hostages, they can extend the ceasefire by days or even weeks by slowly releasing hostages, and they still will have dozens of hostages.

Meanwhile, Israel will be under immense and almost insurmountable international and American pressure not to resume the fighting. While Israel says it can resist that pressure, that’s open to question. We’ve seen how Biden pressure already forced Israel to slow down its offensive such that the southern half of Gaza, where Sinwar and other leaders fled, has been relatively untouched.

Is this a harsh assessment? No, it’s a realistic assessment.

I said soon on October 7, at a time the death toll was believed to be 300, that Israel faced a dilemma:

The hostages held in Gaza will not be recovered alive unless Israel gives major concessions and leaves Hamas in power. While of course Israel wants to get them back alive, Israeli military options are severely constrained if that is the goal. Hamas has grown comfortable taking hostages and using them as shields to temper Israeli military responses. The goals of toppling Hamas and getting the hostages back alive are not consistent. Israel faces a tough choice.

On October 28, when the death toll and barbarity of the attack was fully known, I wrote:

Both a virtue and a weakness of Israeli society is the overwhelming concern for Israelis captured by Hamas or other terrorist groups.

In 2011, after his family mounted a public pressure campaign that ended up almost paralyzing Israeli society, the government agreed to exchange over 1000 terrorists in its custody for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Israeli society paid a very steep price for that exchange. By 2018, over one-third of Palestinian terrorists freed in the 2011 hostage deal returned to terror. Among the freed terrorists were almost the entire present Gaza military leadership of Hamas responsible for planning the October 7 attack. Thousands of Israelis died to recover one Israeli hostage.

Will Israeli society succumb to the pressure now that there are over 200 hostages, including babies and children? Already there are signs of a pressure campaign building….

One can feel for the families and the hostages, but also understand that such a hostage-for-prisoner exchange would mean thousands more Israelis would die in the future, and Hamas would remain in power.

The horrors of what Hamas did may be what holds Israel together in its goal of eliminating Hamas, which is not consistent with getting all the hostages back alive. That’s the hard truth.

It is wonderful that approximately 50 hostages, including 30 children, will be released. I feel very deeply for them and their families. The suffering is unimaginable. Yet the Israeli government undoubtedly succumbed from a growing internal pressure campaign to bring as many hostages home at any cost. As we saw in the Shalit deal, that cost may be unbearably steep.

I hope I’m wrong. I hope that Israel frees as many hostages as possible and then is able to resume the offensive to crush and eliminate Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the other terror groups.

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Comments

So if you release say, 150 terrorists, and they resume their work and go out and kill hundreds more innocents, was there a gain, especially since they just have to grab people to get their animals freed?

Then again, at least Israel isn’t paying for the hostages, like Biden did…

    mailman in reply to Dimsdale. | November 22, 2023 at 3:34 am

    Everyone of these terrorists, when captured in the future, must be summarily executed on the spot. They had their chance and did exactly as everyone expected.

      The key is to parole them, and make sure they can be identified in the field when captured.
      Then, “Oh, I’m sorry, you promised this and went back on your word. That makes you an illegal combatant. Goodbye.”

        MattMusson in reply to GWB. | November 22, 2023 at 9:53 am

        I am sure that the Biden Administration is already setting up a bank account so that we can buy our 8 American hostages back. What do you think would be the over / under on the price?

        ekimremmit in reply to GWB. | November 22, 2023 at 10:54 am

        Parole ’em with tamper proof ankle bracelets holding an explosive charge with remote detonation capability.

Of all people I wouldn’t expect the Israelis to be so easily snookered by Muslims. I realize that if something is not done for the hostages, early death at the hands of the Muslims will occur. Yet the land incursion by the IDF is doing something.

No to a ceasefire with these Muslims.

    Milhouse in reply to fscarn. | November 21, 2023 at 11:00 pm

    Of all people I wouldn’t expect the Israelis to be so easily snookered by Muslims.

    Why not? They’ve done it over and over, always with the same results. I’ve been expecting something like this for a month.

    The disastrous Jibril brought about hundreds of deaths; the Shalit deal was even worse. And there were many more in between.

    When Netanyahu gave in the public pressure and released 1000 terrorists for one soldier, he knew he was condemning hundreds or thousands of Israelis to death. He did it anyway, because he’s weak. He knew his duty and failed it. Shalit’s parents have all this blood on their hands too; it was their duty to sacrifice their son for the nation’s good. Their son’s life was not more precious than all those they knew would die to save him.

    After the Shalit deal, the next time soldiers went into the Gaza strip we had the horrible phenomenon of soldiers taking suicide pills with them, and signing wills ordering that if they are taken hostage they are not to be ransomed.

    Two of the tweets embedded in the post cite the Talmud teaching that each life is worth an entire universe. The same Talmud forbids ransoming kidnapped people at a higher price than they would fetch in the slave market, so as not to create an incentive for more people to be kidnapped. It is permitted to pay as much as the pirates could get anyway, because doing so doesn’t create any incentive; they will always kidnap people for sale and there’s nothing that can be done about it. But if they know that Jews will pay top dollar they will target them, so they have to know that they can’t get more than market value. Now that there is no slave market, any ransom paid is “overpaying”, and one paid by releasing terrorists is even worse.

      mailman in reply to Milhouse. | November 22, 2023 at 3:35 am

      Who is the PM that would have done any different Justice Millhouse? Give us some names genius 😂😂

        Milhouse in reply to mailman. | November 22, 2023 at 6:16 am

        Netanyahu has systematically suppressed all competition within the Likud.

        Gid’on Sa’ar has shown some very poor judgment in the last few years, since he hired the Lincoln Project to advise his campaign against Netanyahu, but had he been PM at the time of the Shalit deal I think he would have done better.

        Moshe Feiglin would absolutely have done better, but you will no doubt reply that he was never a plausible contender. The same applies to Natan Sharansky; I think he would have made an excellent PM, but he was never a plausible contender.

        Yvette Lieberman voted against the Shalit deal, so I think it’s reasonably safe to say that had he been PM it would not have happened. Not that I’m a fan of his, but facts are facts.

        Uzi Landau also voted against it; he was at one point a contender for the Likud leadership, and had he won it I think the deal would not have happened.

        Those are just a few who could have done a much better job than Netanyahu over the years.

      CincyJan in reply to Milhouse. | November 23, 2023 at 11:49 am

      It is simple logic that if hostages are valuable, then hostages will be taken. Israel is putting a high price on every Jewish head. The attack of October 7th was brutal, but it was also focused on hostage taking.

I think they should swap some of the Harvard faculty for some of the hostages held by Hamas. A few of the Hamas terrorists imprisoned in Israel could, in turn, be provided with full professor positions with Harvard. They could teach anti-Western Civ 101.

Sounds like a win-win.

It appears Israel may have lost the war. I don’t know if it is because of western pressure, but if it is Israel will get no credit for this, does not get all hostages back, and will be under infinitely more pressure if it doesn’t just leave Gaza.

Hostage taking will also be going into a golden age (there isn’t even a pretense of releasing the Houthi captured ship).

I don’t know what is worst if this is what Netanyahu thinks victory looks like or if it is what Biden thinks victory looks like.

This is a mistake, they’ll regret it

Subotai Bahadur | November 21, 2023 at 10:06 pm

How many more casualties will Tzahal take as a result of the ceasefire? As a certain general in history said [accurately quoted I am told] “In war, moral power is to physical as three parts out of four.”. What effect will stopping offensive operations when winning, will the ceasefire have when the Israelis have to resume offensive operations against a resupplied and redeployed HAMAS?

If you are at the point where you are at war, the over-riding goal has to be to win the war and utterly destroy the enemy so that they can no longer pose a threat.

Subotai Bahadur

    If they resume the war, the improvement Hamas will now get in its position may result in just as many more Israeli soldier deaths as the number of civilians released – rising with each day of cease fire. On the other hand, would a ceasefire allow a pipeline to be built from the Mediterranean toward Gaza tunnels? IMO the political price to be paid in Israel for all their soldiers dying in Gaza for very little could be high.

This is a HORRIBLE idea. Because now they’re giving ammunition to the insane leftist media to scream about them ‘breaking’ the ceasefire.

Good grief.

All or none. How hard is it to understand what a bad idea it is to let them have any control whatsoever on this? NOBODY who counts will respect you for this, including Hamas.

Get back to fighting the war and maintaining the high ground.

Israelis aren’t stupid so I’m hoping that they won’t let these pigs play a stalling game. These animals don’t care about the criminal Palestinians. They just want time.

    Milhouse in reply to Concise. | November 21, 2023 at 11:06 pm

    On the contrary, Israelis are that stupid. They have shown it so many times over the years. It’s their government’s job to resist such public pressure, and they’re not stupid, but they’re weak. They’re more afraid of losing the next election than they are of losing the next war.

      Mauiobserver in reply to Milhouse. | November 22, 2023 at 1:43 am

      I am not an expert on Israeli politics but from what little I learned while there and since a significant portion of the population is both secular and very liberal. They are supported and funded by the same American liberal Jews that funded the leftwing faculty and administrations in our elite universities.

      Those people are waking up to the fact that the DEI anti colonial dogma is also anti semitic. However, they are far from supporting conservative alternatives.

      The people living close to the Gaza border who were the victims of Hamas and the hostages are mostly secular and supporters of the leftwing in Israeli politics.

      If the government didn’t do something to free the hostages there is a good chance that they would not be in power much longer.

      Hopefully they can still crush Hamas but much like this country the political environment in Israel seems to defy common sense.

So they’re not going with “Release all hostages and we’ll stop bombing the living daylights out of you”? Seems like a tactical error there.

No win situation easy to manage from far away. Full speed ahead is a great course of action, in a vacuum, but Israel decides for itself, and things are not linear. Hamas will use the time, so will the IDF. The war on Hamas is not over because the war on the Jews has spread.

It seems to me that Hamas agreeing to this deal shows the level of their desperation. Israel has taken 4,700 prisoniers since October 7. Letting a few hundred go, even a select few hundred will have little effect. Gaza already has all the terrorists and more that it needs . The “10 hostages for a 24 hour cease fire” will get results if the attack on Hamas is exceptionally brutal on days when there is no cease-fire.

I don’t enjoy being cynical… no matter how pragmatic the solution. I’m not a big fan of killing, although it IS a solution.

If Israel is holding the most effective Hamas operatives in prison, they have to feed, clothe, and be responsible for them in prison, and the terrorists will be safe, celebrated (in certain grimy circles) and alive. If they release them during an active campaign of ridding the world of these terrorists, then the terrorists can be killed.

As a really important bonus, some hostages will be released… and their testimony can be heard by the world.

So we go from having terrorists being expensively cared for and protected by Israeli prisons, and hostages in the hands of Hamas… to terrorists available to elimination, and hostages freed.

It’s an AWFUL way to look at it… but until Israel is willing to execute their jailed prisoners, and able to release hostages without other cost… it works for me. Let’s hope the Israeli government releases to worst of the lot first.

    JohnSmith100 in reply to MrMichael. | November 22, 2023 at 10:59 am

    Hamas are terrorists, they should only be kept alive if they have intelligence value & when that is no longer the case, be executed.

This is nothing but an appeasement to the Western powers. Netanyahu knows it is a mistake but has to please many people around the world to keep any support that is going to fade soon. To swap a murdering beast for a normal person is an abomination. Hamas knew this was how it would play out on the world stage. None of the pro-Palestinian protests were organic. They were all orchestrated and planned. It pains me to see the Israelis have to pander like this and I know it must be brutal on them.

Agreeing to a hudna is foolish.

Return/rescue of the hostages is a war aim for the Israelis. Seen through that lens, as long as they continue to prosecute the other war aims, they could not refuse the deal and have the government stand.

I hope they place tracking devices in the monsters or infect them with some communicable disease, but we know the Israeli’s are too moral for that.

Israel has taken several hundred, if not thousands of prisoners since 10/7. Once they defeat Hamas in Gaza and elsewhere Israel should round these people up again.

Lastly, just like there is no moral equivalence between the dead Israeli civilian and the collateral damage in Gaza there is no equivalence between a dead hostage and a dead soldier. This isn’t a balance sheet of lives, IDF troops are expected to give theirs to defend the innocent as many already have.

IMO this is a mistake. Given the domestic pressure groups in Israel are applying coupled with US gov’t pressure I can’t imagine this not being inevitable.

Assuming that this goes as planned/agree to over the 4 day pause Israel should resume its operation. They should also not allow single day pauses for future swaps. Require a 3 day pause so that an additional 30 hostages are released. Don’t allow themselves to be precluded from finishing an operational objective b/c Hamas plays the ‘hey we want a time out’ card by offering ten more hostages whenever they are getting routed in the field.

it will harm Israel’s ability to secure the release of all the hostages
I don’t think most of those are alive. I think the update in numbers (up to 80) is because they got word from a couple more groups of terrorists that they, too, have some hostages still alive.

The best thing Israel can do with the 150 terrorists they’re releasing is to 1) send each of them to the prison clinic, sedate them, and stitch a tiny little scar somewhere on them, and 2) to ensure they release them all together, in an area removed from the current fighting.

The key to the little operating room trick is to let it “leak” that they have GPS trackers inside them.
You let them all out in one spot away from the fighting so that they have to travel to move toward the fighting – that makes them much more visible and possibly exposes tunnels and other routes.

    TargaGTS in reply to GWB. | November 22, 2023 at 8:50 am

    Lol. You’ve watched too many (bad) spy movies. If only that technology existed. Unfortunately, skin turns out to be a remarkably effective Faraday Cage. GPS signals don’t have much chance of penetrating the skin. But, even if they did, you have to remember that GPS isn’t a two-way coms system. The GPS system is a one-way system; satellite-based transmitters that broadcast GPS signals to receivers. If you want to track someone using GPS, the device needs to additionally have a transmitter that broadcasts a signal you can detect. The smaller GPS-enabled devices that do this usually use a cellular-based system or use GPRS, a signalling technology that piggybacks off the cellular network. Unfortunately, even if a receiver/transmitter could be miniaturized enough to make it subdermally implantable, you also have the problem of the battery, Tiny batteries have TINY output…and lifespans, an issue of physics that is very difficult to overcome. To overcome the Faraday Cage properties of skin, you would need to broadcast a signal with SIGNIFICANT wattage, which would generate heat and of course require a sizable battery.

    For these reasons, this is why we don’t have subdermal child or pet trackers available. Believe me, companies have been trying for years to develop this kind of tech. But, the physics have thus far proven to be difficult to overcome.

      If only that technology existed.
      You missed my point. A great portion of the muslim world (especially the Palestinians) are terribly ignorant and superstitious. I didn’t say to actually implant anything – just to ensure those sorts of people are certain you have done so.

      The_Mew_Cat in reply to TargaGTS. | November 23, 2023 at 2:49 pm

      You could implant a radioactive device that emits gas of a detectable isotope. Or give them a radioactive morsel to eat. That will work to sniff out tunnel entrances too.

Obviously, the pressure on Netenyahu and his coalition government to get as many hostages freed as possible, is understandably immense. But, for a cautionary tale about the dangers of this, we needn’t look any further than what prisoners who we freed to get Bowie Bergdahl back ended up doing. No less than three of the prisoners went on to lead the Taliban assault when we pulled out.

Weakness in response to terrorism always results in greater terrorism. Taking hostages is a tried and successful Islamic terrorist tactic that will soon be staged in the US and Europe.

Not a fan of this, but pretty much every western government is infected with communists that hate Israel and those governments are applying immense pressure. Since Israel is going down this path again, it’d be wise to rethink leaving her citizens defenseless against the animals next door.

    gonzotx in reply to Paddy M. | November 22, 2023 at 11:00 am

    Bibi blinked and with it the world will lose and Israel will be wiped off the map…

    If this is Armageddon, so be it

    It’s predicted in the Bible

    Definitely the beginning of the end of times

    And deservingly so for mankind.

Lucifer Morningstar | November 22, 2023 at 8:47 am

Well, apparently Netanyahu hasn’t learned the lessons of the last couple of decades about dealing with Hamas and the Arab terrorists and has embarked on a suicidal plan that will end with the destruction of Israel. There will be a “cease fire” to the extent that Hamas can regroup, rearm, and gather reinforcements. And then the terrorist violence will continue with the added bonus that now Hamas knows that if it takes hostages Netanyahu will back down and do as he’s told by the terrorists.

I do not wish Israel ill but cannot see how this course of action will turn out well for Israel.

We really need a time machine to know whether this is the correct call.

We know Hamas will use this cease fire to enhance its war with Israel.

How many soldiers will die because of the ceasefire?

Looks as though Biden negotiated this deal

If they implanted the timed detonators into the base of their necks… then great.

On October 8, one day after Hamas launched its military invasion, Secretary of State Blinken publicly called for a cease fire, which is another way of telling Israel that it should not respond militarily to the Hamas invasion. When the headlines got away from them, the Biden Administration made all sorts of high-profile statements of unqualified support for Israel. This unqualified support for Israel turned into something less than unqualified or even support.

Biden is willing to forgo aid to Israel if it cannot get additional funding for Ukraine. The Biden Administration unleashed an all out effort to undermine Israel’s effort to eliminate Hamas once and for all. A cease fire, a pause, an exchange of prisoners for hostages, all were part of the Biden initiative. Israel concluded that it could not ignore Biden, which is understandable but disappointing.

Can anyone imagine Trump pressuring the Israeli government to drop its plan to insist that Hamas unconditionally surrender to put an end to these Iran-backed initiatives? If what we have are the adults, please let the kids back in the room.

This is a mistake.

1:3 hostage agreement. 4 day ceasefire.

Again, Israel goes against their interests. Again, they think this will work.

They are like wolves, they do not learn from their mistakes.

BigRosieGreenbaum | November 22, 2023 at 12:42 pm

This deal stinks on ice! Very disheartening, very disappointing. This will never work; it will end up as another disaster.

Not happy at all with the deal but looking for a silver lining….

Hopefully those 50 will feel the support of those in their corner and be willing to tell the world about the atrocious insidious garbage human beings that slaughtered their friends and tortured them.

Giving into the left again, losing momentum.

The second part of this rope-a-dope goes like this:

1. Hamas violates the truce. Israel turns a blind eye.
2. Hamas violates it again. Israel says, “Okay. Let it be on your own heads” and goes back on the attack.
3. The world then screams “FOUL!” at Israel for violating the truce and pressures them to stop attacking immediately.

Unbelievable. Four day ceasefire timing.

Biden desperate to minimize negative headlines over US thanksgiving holidays ?!

fjb is despicable–once again revealing to the world what a worthless grifter he is

israel was attacked–when your allies suffer an uprovoked attack you come to their aid or, at the very least, support them as best you can however you can

attempting to intervene as a “peacemaker” is still interfering especially when the interference is to fjb’s benefit not the israelis

time after time after time hamas / hezbollah / iran, et al have demonstrated their intractable commitment to the destruction of israel–“from the river to the sea”–not only with their words / “protests” but with their unspeakable atrocities

why not ” consider ” a ceasefire when ALL the hostages are released unharmed along with ALL the perps of the oct 7 terrorist attack ?

fjb continues to bring shame and dishonor on our country

After Israel gets its hostages out (assuming it actually does get any), Israel should excavate pipelines to the sea to flood the tunnels.

If the Israeli goal of destroying Hamas holds, this could be a good move for them:

— 50 hostages they want back, for 150 Hamas they’ve already downloaded.

— Images of the exchanged: civilians including children for fighters.

— Pressured to extend: “Sure, we’ll take another 50 of ours for another 4 days and 150 Hamas. What’s that? They don’t have another 50 of ours? What happened to our people?”

— Forces in Gaza in way better condition after 4 day rest and resupply.

Plus, you’d like your enemy to understand that it’s gonna be bad for them until it ends, *and* it can end.