Kentucky Governor Race a Dead Heat But Republican Daniel Cameron Has Momentum

Kentucky Governor Race a Dead Heat But Republican Daniel Cameron Has Momentum

If you don’t live in Kentucky, you may not be aware that there’s an election happening there next week. Andy Beshear, the incumbent Democrat governor is facing a challenge from Republican Daniel Cameron and the race is a dead heat.

From Emerson College Polling:

Kentucky 2023 Poll: Cameron Catches Up to Beshear in Governor’s Race

The final Emerson College Polling survey of Kentucky voters before the 2023 gubernatorial general election finds incumbent Governor Andy Beshear and Attorney General Daniel Cameron in a dead heat: 47% support Beshear and 47% support Cameron. Two percent support someone else and 4% are undecided. Undecided voters were asked which candidate they lean toward at this time; with their support accounted for, Cameron holds a slight advantage with 49% support to Beshear’s 48%.

Since last month’s poll of registered Kentucky voters, Beshear’s initial support has decreased by two points, 49% to 47%, while support for Cameron increased 14 points from 33% to 47%. Undecided voters have reduced by nine points, from 13% undecided to 4% ahead of the Tuesday election.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Cameron appears to have gained ground by consolidating Republican voters who supported former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election. In October, 54% of Trump supporters supported Cameron; now, as election day approaches, that number has jumped to 79% – a 25-point increase. Notably, October’s poll was of registered voters in Kentucky, while this final election poll includes only those who are very likely or have already voted in Kentucky.”

Support for Cameron has increased among older voters in Kentucky since the October poll. A majority of voters (58%) ages 50-69 now support Cameron for governor, a 22-point increase from October, where Cameron held 36% support among the same age group. Beshear’s support among 50-69-year-olds has dropped 9 points since October, from 49% to 40%.

KENTUCKY POLL

Gubernatorial Election

Andy Beshear 47%
Daniel Cameron 47%
Someone else 2%
4% undecided

With undecided push:
Cameron 49%
Beshear 48%

10/30-11/2, KY LV, n=1,000, +/- 3%https://t.co/tMGHV8Jr6j pic.twitter.com/tu9pggogCZ

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) November 3, 2023

Selena Zito of the Washington Examiner suggests that momentum has been shifting to Cameron in recent weeks:

Even before the new poll from Emerson College came out Friday morning, the ground was shifting in Daniel Cameron’s favor across the state in the Republican Kentucky attorney general’s race against incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) for the state’s highest office.

Much like Cameron’s successful run for Kentucky attorney general in 2019, where he made history as both the first black person from either party to win statewide office and the first Republican in 70 years to be the commonwealth’s top prosecutor, his candidacy has been largely ignored by the national press and vilified by the local press…

A month ago, Emerson’s polling showed Beshear leading Cameron by a whopping 16 percentage points. Friday’s poll showed the men tied with both candidates at 47%, with 4% of voters undecided and 2% supporting someone else.

Politico is calling this election a referendum on Biden:

Kentucky is about to give us a major test of Biden’s unpopularity

To win a second term as governor next week, Andy Beshear needs to prove that the Democratic Party isn’t dead and buried in places like the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields.

And he needs to do it with unpopular President Joe Biden in the White House.

Democrats repeatedly invoked the specter of Trump to energize their base and defeat GOP candidates in blue states. Now, Republicans are hoping Biden’s deep unpopularity will help them in places like this.

We will know in a few days. This is a race to watch.

Featured image via YouTube.

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