The Israeli government tonight agreed to a terrorist-for-hostage deal. While the full and precise terms are not yet clear, the general parameters reported by the Times of Israel are:
In an unprecedented vote early Wednesday morning, Israel’s cabinet approved an agreement to secure the release of roughly 50 hostages who were abducted into Gaza during the October 7 terror onslaught.A government statement announcing the result of the vote did not specify how ministers voted. Despite expressing earlier opposition to the agreement, the far-right Religious Zionism party voted in favor, with only members of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s ultranationalist Otzma Yehudit faction voting against, according to Hebrew media.Not all details of the agreement have been formally released to the public, but an Israeli government official briefing reporters on Tuesday said the deal is expected to see the release of 50 living Israeli citizens, mostly women and children, in groups of 12-13 people per day….In exchange, Israel has agreed to a ceasefire for at least four days for the first time since the outbreak of the war.The government confirmed those terms of the agreement following the vote, without offering details regarding any of the other Israeli concessions.“The Israeli government is committed to bringing all the abductees home. Tonight, the government approved the outline for the first stage of achieving this goal, under which at least 50 abductees – women and children – will be released over a span of four days, during which there will be a lull in the fighting,” the statement said.“The release of every ten additional abductees will result in an additional day of respite,” it added.
The Jerusalem Post is reporting “up to 80” hostages will be released, presumably if the 4 day ceasefire is extended:
The government approved early Wednesday morning a partial hostage deal that includes a pause in the Gaza war in exchange for a release of up to 80 out of over 239 people seized by terrorists during Hamas’ infiltration of southern Israel on October 7.
“We have a difficult decision before us tonight, but it is a correct decision,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the start of the meeting.
Opponents of the deal warned that it will harm Israel’s ability to secure the release of all the hostages and complicate Israel’s military campaign to oust Hamas from Gaza. They also warned that it will be difficult to resume the war once it has been temporarily halted.
Barak Ravid at Axios reports:
Details: In the first phase of the two-phase deal, Hamas is expected to free about 50 Israeli women and children held in Gaza, while Israel is expected to release about 150 Palestinian prisoners, mostly women and children over the four-day pause.
- As part of the deal approved by the Cabinet, Israel will allow around 300 aid trucks per day to enter Gaza from Egypt. More fuel will also be allowed in during the pause in fighting, according to an Israeli official.
- In the second phase, Hamas could release dozens more women, children and elderly people in return for Israel extending the ceasefire by several more days.
- The Cabinet decision came after more than five hours of discussions on the deal.
- It is unclear when the deal will be implemented.
Other reports indicate that Israel agreed that for six hours a day it would not fly drones over Gaza to monitor Hamas and other terrorist movements. Joe Truzman reports that Hamas is claiming these are part of the terms:
The cessation of air traffic in the north for six hours a day, from 10:00 am to 4:00 pm. The cessation of air traffic in the south for the duration of the four days. During the ceasefire, Israel commits to not harming or arresting anyone in all areas of the Gaza Strip. Israel guarantees the freedom of movement of people (from north to south) along Salahadeen street.
Netanyahu’s office released this statement:
Statement by the government of Israel:The Government of Israel is obligated to return home all of the hostages.Tonight, the Government has approved the outline of the first stage of achieving this goal, according to which at least 50 hostages – women and children – will be released over four days, during which a pause in the fighting will be held.The release of every additional ten hostages will result in one additional day in the pause.The Government of Israel, the IDF and the security services will continue the war in order to return home all of the hostages, complete the elimination of Hamas and ensure that there will be no new threat to the State of Israel from Gaza.
Make no mistake, this is a huge victory for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (released in the deal to free Gilad Shalit), who will be viewed by Palestinian society (which overwhelmingly supported the October 7 Massacre) as a hero for freeing terrorists from Israeli prisons. He also buys Hamas and other terrorist groups, which are being systematically destroyed on the battlefield and in the alleyways and tunnels, a pause to regroup, relocate, and rearm. Since Hamas still will control almost 200 hostages, they can extend the ceasefire by days or even weeks by slowly releasing hostages, and they still will have dozens of hostages.
Meanwhile, Israel will be under immense and almost insurmountable international and American pressure not to resume the fighting. While Israel says it can resist that pressure, that’s open to question. We’ve seen how Biden pressure already forced Israel to slow down its offensive such that the southern half of Gaza, where Sinwar and other leaders fled, has been relatively untouched.
Is this a harsh assessment? No, it’s a realistic assessment.
I said soon on October 7, at a time the death toll was believed to be 300, that Israel faced a dilemma:
The hostages held in Gaza will not be recovered alive unless Israel gives major concessions and leaves Hamas in power. While of course Israel wants to get them back alive, Israeli military options are severely constrained if that is the goal. Hamas has grown comfortable taking hostages and using them as shields to temper Israeli military responses. The goals of toppling Hamas and getting the hostages back alive are not consistent. Israel faces a tough choice.
On October 28, when the death toll and barbarity of the attack was fully known, I wrote:
Both a virtue and a weakness of Israeli society is the overwhelming concern for Israelis captured by Hamas or other terrorist groups.In 2011, after his family mounted a public pressure campaign that ended up almost paralyzing Israeli society, the government agreed to exchange over 1000 terrorists in its custody for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Israeli society paid a very steep price for that exchange. By 2018, over one-third of Palestinian terrorists freed in the 2011 hostage deal returned to terror. Among the freed terrorists were almost the entire present Gaza military leadership of Hamas responsible for planning the October 7 attack. Thousands of Israelis died to recover one Israeli hostage.Will Israeli society succumb to the pressure now that there are over 200 hostages, including babies and children? Already there are signs of a pressure campaign building….One can feel for the families and the hostages, but also understand that such a hostage-for-prisoner exchange would mean thousands more Israelis would die in the future, and Hamas would remain in power.The horrors of what Hamas did may be what holds Israel together in its goal of eliminating Hamas, which is not consistent with getting all the hostages back alive. That’s the hard truth.
It is wonderful that approximately 50 hostages, including 30 children, will be released. I feel very deeply for them and their families. The suffering is unimaginable. Yet the Israeli government undoubtedly succumbed from a growing internal pressure campaign to bring as many hostages home at any cost. As we saw in the Shalit deal, that cost may be unbearably steep.
I hope I’m wrong. I hope that Israel frees as many hostages as possible and then is able to resume the offensive to crush and eliminate Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the other terror groups.
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UPDATE
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