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NYT/Siena College Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Nonwhite Voters

NYT/Siena College Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Nonwhite Voters

“The results represent a marked deterioration in Mr. Biden’s support compared with 2020, when he won more than 70 percent of nonwhite voters.”

The New York Times is reporting that recent polling among nonwhite voters is not looking good for Joe Biden. That is not to suggest that these voters are shifting Republican, but even a small percentage of these voters not showing up for Biden in 2024 could significantly impact the race.

The New York Times reports:

Consistent Signs of Erosion in Black and Hispanic Support for Biden

President Biden is underperforming among nonwhite voters in New York Times/Siena College national polls over the last year, helping to keep the race close in a hypothetical rematch against Donald J. Trump.

On average, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by just 53 percent to 28 percent among registered nonwhite voters in a compilation of Times/Siena polls from 2022 and 2023, which includes over 1,500 nonwhite respondents.

The results represent a marked deterioration in Mr. Biden’s support compared with 2020, when he won more than 70 percent of nonwhite voters. If he’s unable to revitalize this support by next November, it will continue a decade-long trend of declining Democratic strength among voters considered to be the foundation of the party.

Mr. Biden’s tepid support among these voters appears to be mostly responsible for the close race in early national surveys, which show Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump all but tied among registered voters even as Mr. Biden runs as well among white voters as he did four years ago.

The Biden campaign is apparently aware of this problem because they’re spending big money on targeted ads.

The Washington Examiner reports:

Biden campaign targets minority groups with ads as support wanes

President Joe Biden’s 2024 reelection campaign has rolled out several ads already, particularly targeting Hispanic and black media outlets in battleground states ahead of what is expected to be a competitive electoral contest.

As part of a $25 million ad buy announced last month, Biden’s team is placing ads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, specifically trying to reach minority voters…

The Biden campaign is leaning into its strength with minority voters and is working to reenergize the pivotal voting bloc. The strategically placed ads are accompanied by a Florida-specific ad purchase looking to court Hispanic voters in the Sunshine State. Florida was one of the few states where Republicans performed exceedingly well in the 2022 midterm elections, including flipping Miami-Dade County, which is over 70% Hispanic or Latino.

The Biden campaign’s ad purchases are notably the largest for a reelection bid this early in the cycle.

It’s hard to understand how Biden has any support left, given the problems facing the country and the way in which he has responded.


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Biden has the support of 99.9% of pre-printed ballots delivered after 3:00am.

It’s okay – he’s got 100% of the dead vote locked up, and they are reliable as hell.

if you don’t support me you ain’t black.
but don’t worry … they have box cars full
of ballots 100 million this time …

The well-known moron Donny Deutch claimed a WSJ poll with similar results was an outlier.

People of all racial backgrounds recognize he is terrible from the bottom – up through the middle-out.

“If diversity makes us stronger, why does it require lower standards

Is there anything that Joe Biden doesn’t underpreform at.

    He overperformed at the creation of shell companies for his corrupt organization while he was a Senator and VP. Of course he was the Senator from Delaware the home of the shell company.

    nordic prince in reply to thad_the_man. | September 6, 2023 at 2:17 pm

    Sniffing little girls.

      ChrisPeters in reply to nordic prince. | September 7, 2023 at 10:16 am

      Very Funny, but you are dead wrong.

      He never sniffs the hair of little girls of color or of little girls displaced by climate change or of little girls who are actually little boys but their parents are telling them they are little girls.

The phrase “targeting minority groups” should be banned because it triggers me into believing threats of violence are being expounded. Of course “being triggered” sounds affiliated with gun play and it to should also be banned.

    healthguyfsu in reply to Tom M. | September 6, 2023 at 12:41 pm

    I started off thinking this wasn’t sarcasm…damn internet lack of tone!

    Don’t worry though, Biden has a heart-felt speech that he didn’t write all revved up for the Ohio shooting (that seems legally justified as of right now).

I hope it’s true, but it seems like every election season somebody comes out with a poll claiming that minorities are moving away from the Democrats, and every election it turns out to be a fantasy.

poles are for strippers and Barack

Why would Hispanic-heritage citizens be thrilled about millions more being let in to compete for jobs and mess up their schools and neighborhoods? I am surprised that there have not been big shifts in voting sentiment.

    txvet2 in reply to jb4. | September 6, 2023 at 2:31 pm

    There has been in the border counties of S. Texas, but not so much elsewhere, and apparently not enough to turn many elections.

Subotai Bahadur | September 6, 2023 at 4:14 pm

IF we actually have a real election, with only votes cast by living US citizens being counted; this polling may have some significance. But the predicated conditions have yet to be proven.

Subotai Bahadur

What concerns me is that several times in the last 50-years, there has been pre-election polling that indicated a shift in voting patterns for minorities generally, but blacks in particular…shifts that never materialized when the votes were finally counted. Trump’s 11% in 2020, while ever so slightly larger than what he won in 2016 and what McCain and Romney both won, was roughly identical to what Bush won in 2004…and a bit less than what Nixon won in 1972.

    henrybowman in reply to TargaGTS. | September 6, 2023 at 5:33 pm

    To put things in context, Nixon-era blacks were still exceedingly familiar with Byrd-era Democrats, and the voter rolls hadn’t yet been swamped by Johnson-era blacks.

“It’s hard to understand how Biden has any support left”

As we learned from mustache-boy and Milgram, and just saw revalidated by Code Pink, a significant number of human beings a a crossbreed of sheeple and lemmings who will blindly follow the handiest alpha figure with zero logical reflection.

There’s really not that thick of a line between mass hysteria and the sociology of tribal cohesiveness.

Nobody should be fooled into thinking that nonwhite voters are, generally, going to vote for anyone other than a Dem. Dems haven’t had to compete for black votes for decades. That isn’t changing. Self-delusion is not a helpful trait for Republicans. Stop wasting ink.

Joe excels at underperforming.

You mean a poll about a theoretical match-up conducted some 14 months before the election might be as relevant as the results of an actual election with real voters and stuff?

All the bribes he’s handing out to whiny little children who agreed to take out loans for college should be a big help.

From an ABC News segment with George Stephanopoulous in response to the results, Brazile said this:

George, when I looked at that recent poll, the Wall Street Journal, I said, ‘Oh, this could keep me up at night.’ Look, the problem is, and the biggest challenge we face as Democrats — I say ‘we’ because I’m a Democrat — is that young voters, young black and Latino voters, they’re not ready to come back to the party.

They’re [minority voters] not even looking at the so-called messaging that’s being sent to them about the economy, about climate change, about student debt relief. They are worried about their future.

But I have to say something because, George, I’m old enough to say this. I’ve seen two movements outside of the social justice movements in my life on the political side. One was the Reagan movement. Reagan had a hold on his base. The country at large, they saw him as someone who was willing to stand up for American values, whatever that might have meant. Now I thought it was reactionary. The other movement I saw was Barack Obama, hope and change. That galvanized the American people. I’ve never seen anything like this with Donald Trump. I mean, what doesn’t kill you make you stronger? I mean, being convict — I mean, being indicted, that’s making him stronger? Raising $10 million using an ugly mug shot to raise money? This is a movement. And anyone who thinks that you can apply the old political rules to try to defeat this candidate based on he’s scary, he’s ugly, whatever you might want to call him, this is a movement. And we have to respect the fact that it’s a movement.

I recall a Family Guy episode, in which one of the jokes was that some scandal caused Obama’s support among black voters to fall 2 points … to 96%.

So when I hear a Democrat is “underperforming among non-white voters”, my first thought is, “So he/she is ‘only’ polling at 80%?”

Then I read further and see the polls favoring Biden 53-28, and realize the “decideds” support him nearly 2-to-1, with the strong implication that the “undecideds” just don’t support him yet.

    markm in reply to Archer. | September 11, 2023 at 1:31 am

    Even if all the undecideds go for Biden, he’ll only get 78% – two points down from 80%. So he still needs to crank up the fraudulent ballot machines.