“You may not be interested in culture war, but culture war is interested in you”
If you are unwilling to fight against the culture war on truth and sanity being forced upon you, despite your desire to just be left alone, then you have surrendered.
This seems to sum up what is happening in the nation:
Tweet from Christina Pushaw, Ron DeSantis’ Rapid Response Director: “There is a culture war being waged by progressives against normalcy, decency, and sanity. We don’t have a choice but to fight it.”
Response from George Bonilla, Director, MRC Latino: “You may not be interested in culture war, but culture war is interested in you.”
You may not be interested in culture war, but culture war is interested in you. https://t.co/PNqxf5S8lo
— Jorge Bonilla (@BonillaJL) May 4, 2023
More on point from Pushaw in that thread:
As @GovRonDeSantis said — if you’re demanding that I pretend a man is a woman, you are making me complicit in a lie. We don’t have to accept that.
If taking pornography out of kids’ schools is fighting a “culture war,” then that is a war that needs to be fought.
As Andrew Breitbart said: Politics is downstream from culture. If our culture is rotten, degenerate and corrupt, we won’t have an economy or a country.
If you are unwilling to fight against the culture war on truth and sanity being forced upon you, despite your desire to just be left alone, then you have surrendered.
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Unfortunately, using “for us or against us” language has the tendency to make listeners side against you, out of spite.
Except that was not the language used. But you show your ignorance by saying so.
The language was that we are drawn into a war we didn’t want. That’s not even close to saying for us or against us.
People do not like being told there’s no neutral option, even if that’s really the case. Distinction without a difference.
I don’t take the downvotes personally. I knew it was an unpopular thing to say before I said it.
The left has been going scorched earth. Taking a side is the only viable option at this point. I agree that we will quietly join sides for now, but you are wrong if you are suggesting that this will somehow lead more people to turn left.
Sure, if those listeners are 8-year-olds. Most mature contrarians have at least some idea of what they think and believe before railing against a political movement.
You’re right – to a point.
It is, however, vital that people be brought into action. This is part of how you evangelize. “Get off your duff and do your part!” There actually is right and wrong in this, and to opt out because of “mean tweets!” and such is to not just surrender, but to provide aid and comfort to the enemy of our civilization.
The left never sleeps. They will never, ever leave us alone.
“It is the common fate of the indolent [*] to see their rights become a prey to the active [**]. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude [***] is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt.” John Philpot Curran (1750- 1817).
In other words, you better fight-&-defend or all those hard-earned freedoms will be taken without a moment’s notice. And as recent evidence, look at how governors and their staffs acted during the COVID-19 lockdown
* The indolent – those who may complain (Keyboard Cowboys) but yet won’t take action even when informed that there groups which effectively counter the left
** The active – experience has taught that the left has a never-ending list of stupid, freedom-depriving ideas; the left will NEVER leave us alone. Green New Deal; elimination of 1st Am., 2d Am., mail-in voting, shut-down orders, involvement foreign wars, and international groups such as NATO, the UN, WHO, NAFTA, and on and on
*** Servitude – comes in a variety of forms, from detention (jail, stay-at-home orders) to economic deprivation via regulations (which always result in bigger government, higher prices for goods/services and greater unemployment) to increased taxation
“Right-wing wacko” is what they instantly call us.
That’s the derisive name slapped onto us so that our arguments can be readily dismissed, though in fact they can’t be easily dismissed. Which explains the rapid use of name-calling. When the left has no intelligent argument, the name-calling is always front and center. Our descriptor is that of a common sense constitutionalists, fearing government yet recognizing that some government is necessary, who basically want the happiness that comes with freedom FROM government, and who subscribe to the leave-me-alone wisdom of Brandeis as expressed in Olmstead v. US (1928),
“The makers of our Constitution undertook to secure conditions favorable to the pursuit of happiness. They recognized the significance of man’s spiritual nature, of his feelings and of his intellect. They knew that only part of the pain, pleasure and satisfactions of life are to be found in material things. They sought to protect Americans in their beliefs, their thoughts, their emotions and their sensations. They conferred against the government, the right to be let alone—the most comprehensive of rights and the right most valued by civilized men.”
And John McCain gave that name to us.
“McCain bristles at the fact that non-establishment Republicans and Tea Party favorites such as Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky have gained national prominence and are possible GOP nominees.
He calls them “wacko birds” and Tea Party activists “hobbits” for visibly and vigorously opposing the Obama administration’s illegal and unconstitutional power grabs. He also remembers how another Tea Party favorite, Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, gained his seat by first gaining control of local party posts and the nominating delegates.
That McCain might be more comfortable as a Democrat has long been evident. ”
Which is why most of us don’t trust the Rinos who hate us.
Well, we haven’t had to worry about him for quite a while. He and Paul Ryan were maxi-RINOs.
You haven’t, perhaps. But his mafia still runs our state’s party.
How long has John McCain been dead for? Will running against the long deceased John McCain win a single person who isn’t on our side, and will it alienate people who liked McCain but did not like everything he said or did, and are the answers to those questions compatible with a permanent grudge match against a corpse?
In fairness the ghost of McCain cast a shadow over the Senate elections in AZ b/c his political acolytes and allies in AZ refused to rally around Blake Masters after he won the primary.
McCain “Republicans” made sure that non-McCain Republicans couldn’t win the Senate or Governor race in AZ in 2022.
Of course, Danny would never accept that because of his fixation on Donald Trump as the eternal cause of Republican ills.
Why bring up John McCain just to tell people who admit they like him to get out, humiliating them and alienating people who think like them but weren’t there?
I agree Blake Masters didn’t go the full Kari Lake telling people she didn’t want support if they liked McCain but he did go out of his way to bring up the name which as National Review pointed out in “McCain Republicans Vote, Too” was simple political malpractice. If you hate his memory that much wait till your elected if you want to run in a state that sent him to the senate every time he asked to be there.
I do agree with you that McCain Republicans sank our statewide candidates in Arizona in 2022.
I do not agree that is a McCain shadow however I think that is an example of political malpractice.
Danny, I didn’t do that so you are asking the wrong person. The McCain ‘faction’ is still a thing in AZ and they ain’t on board with populist right policies, voters or candidates. There are other old line political machines in many other States.
Basically the older and long in positive power/influence GoP folks aka establishment who are far more go along get along with d/prog are fighting the populist center/right wing. Not entirely out of purely ideological differences but more as a threat to them losing their privileged positions, prestige, influence and power.
Maricopa County Board of Supervisors? Four out of five are Republicans… McCain Republicans. Enough said.
We obviously can’t look to the Republican Party to campaign against neo-Marxist wokeness. Nationally, the political duopoly resists any sort of reform that doesn’t satisfy its donors. We have to rely on rogue Republicans and Libertarians of the Mises Caucus, hoping that they’ll field candidates we can vote for, but I seriously doubt we can vote our way out of advancing neo-Marxist wokeness. How do we re-capture non-governmental HR departments and other bureaucracies where neo-Marxism lives? The state colleges are reformable because they live on public funding. Keep an eye on the Rufo/DeSantis experiment in FL. If it succeeds in turning the college around, there is hope that such reform may catch on.
We’ll have to rely on individual leaders in the various states to do it. DeSantis of FL provides the example.
We’ll have to rely on individual leaders
You will fail doing that, too. Stop relying on saviors.
If you want to claw our Republic back, evangelize and indoctrinate: Christian morals and American ideals. Only if we re-convert enough people to those ideas can we vote our Republic back in.
Yes, DeSantis is doing good.
Now light a bunch of other people’s tails on fire so they will do it, too.
The mask mandates.
This is one VERY worthy of exploration. It should have been fought and tromped down because that was a dry run of how leftists intend to control us.
The beginning of the end for me in Washington State wasn’t the gun grabbing, it wasn’t the attack on the nuclear family in schools, it was banning plastic grocery bags and plastic straws. When people accepted government telling them what to do on such a personal and miniscule level and retailers went along with it, I knew this state was lost. These ideas were tested out in leftist hell holes and then expanded state wide, just like what is going on in schools. Variances of control via the mask mandate played out much worse in other countries- Canada and Australia.
You know who fought the mask mandate. The fat middle/older aged men who weren’t afraid to upset a teenage enforcers working for near minimum wage. I don’t know if they were right or wrong in that confrontation, but I do know that’s the primary demographic who fought it. The other demographic were attractive women…. the enforcers were less bold about bullying them for reasons I don’t need to explain, but they were able to walk through grocery stores w/out being confronted. My wife marvelled (and quietly cheered at seeing one of her friends get away with it. This wasn’t a mega hotty model, this was just a young mom with good looks and 2 kids in a grocery store not complying.
No wonder that our oh-so-‘progressive’ news media fawn over any ‘activist’ who breaks a window or someone’s nose. They’re doing their far-left duty of converting the ‘indolent’ (and the sensible, and the practical, and the remaining Christians) to march with the spiteful and belligerent who hope to rule the world.
You know, I agree in principle but all this self-righteous breast beating falls short on practical advice, as usual.
Most of us would be glad to do whatever it takes to defeat the neo-Marxist left but don’t know how to go about it. Nobody’s situation is exactly the same.
For example, I’m retired, so the whole problem of grappling with woke HR departments or work environments is no longer a theater of war for me, and I’m not about to attempt to go to work again as an undercover subverter of wokeness even if I knew how to do so in that context. Being fairly literate, I’d be glad to write anti-woke propaganda for no fee if I knew it would have any impact and someone could throw me some angles/topics to cover. Letters to message boards like this and to editors have little persuasive value. Who reads anyone on Substack other than the big guns who are doing great anti-woke journalism there just as a matter of course?
I suppose one could try to connect with grassroots groups planning demonstrations.
Ordinary people with no audience have little impact.
I’m open to suggestions.
This is what everyone can do. Evangelize. Indoctrinate. Teach Christian morals and why they enable freedom. Teach people to discern between “liberty” and “license”. Teach about why American ideals lead to the best possible outcomes. Especially teach children. You have an audience, unless you’re a hermit. Get educated, yourself, on all of these things, and get to telling others about them.
“For example, I’m retired, so the whole problem of grappling with woke HR departments or work environments is no longer a theater of war for me, and I’m not about to attempt to go to work again as an undercover subverter of wokeness even if I knew how to do so in that context.”
For heaven’s sake, that’s an ASSET. You are uncancellable. Leverage it.
experience has taught that the left has a never-ending list of stupid, freedom-depriving ideas
Yes. Progressivism is a religion. They have a goal of a “heaven” on earth, and they do not desire to have it put off any longer than necessary. And they will steam roll everyone who stands in their way, unless we fight.
Effectively fighting the culture war will require getting elected first. And that won’t happen until we have an election system we can trust again. Without that, the socialists/communists will win and then determine the culture that suits them best … not us.
And this is what we are up against. Truly they don’t care if we spend our time fighting “culture “ wars.
They have it all mapped and bought.
Over 700,000 and growing waiting to storm the river to destroy America, and we tax payers are indeed paying for this
These are our replacements, with TB, malaria, polio “like” diseases… and no one is stopping them
You’re right, but it’s too horrible for most people to accept. They’ll be lined up against the wall and STILL calling us conspiracy theorists. The “respectable” branch of Conservative, INC would rather die than admit the truth of where our society is.
We have an election system we can trust.
The choice is fight on the issues including the culture war or keep up the conspiracy theories claiming my vote doesn’t count.
Frankly the last time we won the popular vote was 2004 which should be more than enough alarm that your conspiracy theories are a cope not a reality.
If you believed our election system was that corrupt you wouldn’t be wasting your time on politics.
“We have an election system we can trust.”
Can you be any more UNIPARTY, Danny?
Get a life. Nobody outside of a tiny clique of weirdos gives a dam about the term uniparty. The idea that fighting on the culture war is uniparty is height of absurdity.
LOL! Danny doesn’t believe the UNIPARTY exists.
Not entirely. For example where there are fraudulent voter registrations of folks who are deceased, moved out of State, moved within the State but didn’t update their new address, have a non physical address as their voter address in States which prohibit it, don’t meet the qualifications but the DMV registered them anyhow or just plain old fraud like a studio apartment address used for a dozen voters that’s not indicative of a system we should implicitly trust.
Some of this is simple mistakes, lack of oversight and incompetence. Some is deliberate. All of it creates a pool of ineligible voters who vote illegally themselves or whose ballots are harvested and used fraudulently by others to advance their preferred candidate. Until individual States adopt tougher strictures, deploy considerably more consistent oversight why would say that State has a trustworthy elections system? This is particularly true for those States and localities who have to be forced to perform their existing statutory duty to properly maintain the voter registration list with costly and lengthy lawsuits. Why would we trust the elections system in places who have to forced via lawsuits to meet their existing obligations to maintain a trustworthy elections system?
Notice how CommoChief tries to minimize what went on in 2020 and 2022?
I responded to Danny’s claim that ‘we have an election system we can trust’ by offering up the easiest and clearest proof that this is most certainly not the case.
There’s no point in venturing further down the path b/c his point has been more than adequately refuted. That is called debating tactics and economical use of rhetoric.
I did notice that you tried to make a passive aggressive, limp attack on me by insinuating I don’t believe any other shenanigans took place, which they most certainly did. You chose that course instead of agreeing with what I stated and then listing off the many other shenanigans to buttress the point I made that in many States we don’t have ‘an election system we can trust’.
Free advice. Attacking allies seems like a short sighted political strategy, even if you dislike them personally or when they are only allies of convenience. The goal of an election is to get the most votes in the race just as in debate to persuade the most people to agree with your position.
Wisconsin does exactly what you say is needed and does it routinely and Trump lost there 2018, 2020, and 2022.
Furthermore Wisconsin is a state with voter id laws enforced.
It is moving away from us because instead of culture war politics we have adopted elections are rigged politics which to a majority of Wisconsin voters amounts to F YOU MOTHER FER I HATE YOU F YOU” sorry for cursing but isn’t that what you heard when being told the 2016 election was rigged?
The reason we are not ahead in Wisconsin is a majority of Wisconsin residents don’t like Trump and his surrogates or your rigged elections narrative.
You have no proof that voter fraud is a major issue or that there are enough examples of it to impact any elections.
Claiming voter fraud is a cope.
Now for a major refutation of the voter fraud narrative
Trump absent, Glenn Youngkin correctly throws Trump’s narrative into outer space, campaigns on the culture war, and wins the Governorship, flips several seats in the state house in a blue state.
When we campaign on issues and throw copes like pretending voter fraud is a problem into outer space we win, when we campaign on voter fraud as happened in 2022 we lose.
Cool man. I didn’t specify a particular result in any particular State. I didn’t have to disprove your claim that ‘we have an election system we can trust’.
WI may very well do those things. I have no clue. I would venture to say with suprime confidence that they did not have an outside audit which examined not only deaths and folks moving but also the addresses used v property tax rolls to suss out a commercial address used as residential address or too many voters claiming occupancy at a single address or instances where a single person is registered in multiple places via alternative spellings/presentation of the same name.
If there ate any substantial number of bad registrations in the voter rolls then the system is not trustworthy. It doesn’t have to be enough to make a difference in an election. It just has to be a good size number to indicate that whether by incompetence, bad intent or any other reason the established procedures aren’t being followed.
Get off your high horse. If you really believe we couldn’t find a fubar election roll doing what I outlined you are not being realistic. IMO the best way to fix the voter roll problem is to destroy them and require everyone to reregister with a monitored daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly posting of the process. Let the public see the roll. Investigate and punish with felony charges those who subvert the election laws.
“IMO the best way to fix the voter roll problem is to destroy them and require everyone to reregister with a monitored daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly posting of the process. Let the public see the roll. Investigate and punish with felony charges those who subvert the election laws.”
That’s a good idea, but ultimately, the only way we’ll be able trust the election system is if we go back to in-person voting on paper ballets counted by people, not machines, on election night with no early or late voting, and with absentee ballots only allowed for those with disabilities that prevent them from getting to a polling station. Otherwise, we might as well just hand ourselves over to a dictatorship.
Sorry. The above was a response to CommoChief’s post, not Danny’s.
The popular vote for President is a fixation nearly always observed among… Democrats.
How long has Danny been trolling here?
The hard truth is that we have to face an election system that in many cases we cannot trust, and try to fix it while opposing the Left on other fronts.
Pretending that the 2020 election was the fairest and cleanest ever is also a fixation generally observed among… Democrats.
I don’t know how much trust we can put in it, but it’s all the ordinary citizen has to make an impact on the problem.
Also, if voting in the US is so corrupted and is beyond reform, how do you explain Ron DeSantis and what he’s doing in FL?
All we need is more leaders with the political will to fight neo-Marxist wokeness.
I agree 100% that not voting, but bitching about how corrupt the voting system is, is defeatist and weak, even if your bitching is based on reality.
No, you do not need to be elected first. Most leftists are not elected and look at what they’ve done.
If you do desire to be elected, go for it. Especially at the local level, the Left can’t cheat its way to every office. There’s plenty of offices to win.
But you don’t have to be elected. You can fight. I spend part of my time monitoring the local schools and having polite conversations with the superintendent, school board president, and principals. They know who I am and what I care about; they also know me as polite, proper, and effective.
You don’t have to be elected. You do have to roll your sleeves up and work at it.
No it is realism. That’s the way many communities have avoided allowing the wokeista weirdos to take over local schools. Vigilance by the local community is necessary. Community involvement is required if you want to maintain or restore the health of your community.
Ain’t no one gonna do it for you. You must be willing to help yourself and occasionally get a helping hand from someone else. Relying upon any one politician to wave a wand and magic things to a better outcome is folly. Keep your eye on the politicians and let them know that a boot to the ass will occur if they start backsliding. If not then you are putting your trust in an ‘earthly prince’ and that is the real hopium.
Unless we fix the election system by the 2024, it’s all hopium. I don’t why you people can’t see that. Many people from communist countries that have come to our country have been trying to warn us. They speak from experience.
The elections systems among the States are divided into two camps;
1. proactive, strict, effective, transparent procedures that are trustworthy
2. reactive, rarely enforced, ineffective, opaque procedures that are are untrustworthy
The easiest way to ‘fix’ the untrustworthy systems is to work at the County voter registrar level.. Force them to remove ineligible voters from the rolls. Ask them, pressure them in a civil manner then sue their ass.
If you are only now, less than 18 months out from Nov ’24 elections, worried that there may not be time to do this then I submit that you haven’t been working on the issue.
The d/prog offer similar excuses about the timeline for drilling oil/Nat gas or building a pipeline. They say ‘we can’t build it soon enough to fix the immediate problem’. Which is true, these projects have long lead times but it is disingenuous at best b/c the d/prog were resistant and opposed the project all along when sufficient time did exist to impact today’s problem.
Get to work today to begin the process. Delaying that start time b/c it may not fix ’24 guarantees it won’t fix ’28 or ’32. The sooner you start the sooner you finish. Don’t make excuses as to why we shouldn’t get started.
No. It will require “getting” an electorate first.
They will then work to protect a valid election system and you can elect people.
You don’t think we had an electorate in 2020? Trump got 74 million votes … most votes ever by a President. It’s claimed Biden got 81.5 million votes but do you believe that? I don’t. LOTS of evidence points to that being nothing but a lie … the product of fraud … cheating.
And next to nothing has been done to prevent them from cheating again (and I’m sure the left is busy dreaming up new ways to cheat). So having an electorate is not the answer. We actually already have one. But they have no way to express that vote and win. Because the other side are the ones counting the votes and responding to claims of cheating.
That’s why I say you have to fix the cheating FIRST. Otherwise, prepare for 1984.
You have to fight the culture war on every front imaginable
I see light at the end of the tunnel.
Bud Light: thank you. I love the smell of napalm.
At work, I’m seeing virtue signalers get ignored and reviled in quiet circles. Walls get built and pronouns in your signature line mean you are a toxic back stabber no one wants to work with.
Woke Schools are losing enrollment.
Woke states and woke cities are losing population. The productive members of society are voting with their feet and wallets.
Twitter is down to 1000 employees. Censorship is off. They lost that.
Leftist Media outlets are failing financially.
The trades are more popular than they have been in decades rather than college.
Businesses haven’t cared less about a college degree since the 60s.
Military recruitment has plummetted since it got woke. (well that glass half full).
Woke companies are laying off 10s of thousands.
Woke movies and TV are losing money wildly.
I could go on. But I am more optimistic than I have been in years. Partly because of the move to a red state, but also thanks to the culture war having hit rock bottom. I think Bud Light is the turning point.
In a war, an aggressor will often over extend themselves and then find the Russian winter to be very very cold and unforgiving and your enemy a little more resilient than you ever thought possible.
from your lips (fingers) to God’s ears.
Here’s a alternate perspective on the situation …
“A totalitarian fascist state is a lot closer than you think
… snip …
Lose the next election and it’s over.”
But we won’t win the next election unless we fix the election system first.
And little is being done to do that.
There’s a whole lot being done to counter the leftist wokeista election shenanigans. 17 States have banned Zuckbucks; making it illegal for non govt funding of election activities. Many have tightened up ballot security and election integrity. Surely you recall GA being denounced and MLB pulling their all star game?
The better leaders in Red States are doing these things by exercising the power they have by virtue of their offices. Blue States….not so much. In those States it is lawfare from the right; Public Interest Legal Foundation, among others, has been diligently working to force States to clean up their voter registration rolls.
Bottom line is a great deal is being done. Much of it by ordinary Citizens pushing their local County Registrar to follow the rules already in place to accurately maintain their voter registration rolls. There is always room from improvement.
And it is often Republicans blocking election reform or even refusing the state that it is needed.
Sure the establishment types don’t want to give the grift they profit from. The problem isn’t with Republicans but with the establishment. If nothing else their public opposition and more often parliamentary maneuvers to block passage shines a bright light on who they are.
It’s up to the voters to act on the information. Organize opposition, public pressure, find a reform candidate to primary their ass and be willing to do the work required to achieve political victory. No one is gonna save us, we have to do the work ourselves.
Yet the Republican Party did next to nothing in Wisconsin and lost its majority on the Supreme Court
That is a disaster
I read about that but I don’t live in WI so I don’t have any influence on the dumpster fire that is the current State GoP in WI. I never lived or worked in WI so I have no connection to the State. Outside of the potential National political implications for Congressional redistricting and election shenanigans for he HoR, Senate and POTUS I don’t really care about WI.
It’s not in my orbit. If it were a neighboring State like FL, GA, MS, TN or another which I have some cultural affinity for I would pay more attention b/c I actually cared what happens there. I suggest that those who do care, particularly those who live there or have family there, get busy unf-king the mess up there. My plate is full here in Bama.
I make my challenge again. Name ONE state that Biden won where democRATS are expected to lose in 2024 as things stand. Don’t throw out vagueness. NAME A STATE. If you can’t do that, then all your so-call election fixes did not work. By the way, I think I can name a state or two that Trump won where democRATS will or at least may win. If that’s true too, then we’ve gone backwards, not forwards.
Ok. How about AZ? As you recall the eventual Biden margin over Trump was less than 11K votes.
538 is showing AZ polling as follows:
April 11-13 Latest poll data they had
Leading / Behind
Biden 45 Trump 44
DeSantis 48 Biden 42
Jan 31- Feb 9 largest sample size they had
Leading. / Behind
Biden 39. Trump 37
DeSantis 36 Biden 35
What do these polls seem to suggest? The timing of the poll in relation to news cycle makes a difference. The sample size makes a difference. The candidate seems to make a difference as well. In every AZ poll so far DeSantis leads Biden and Biden leads Trump.
“Ok. How about AZ?”
Oh please, Republicans had more than 2 years to fix Arizona’s election process following what happened in 2020. Yet Kari Lake lost to Hobbs by 0.7% of the vote.
And that’s not what was predicted to happen. Here’s a list of poll results by various organizations in the final 8 days of the campaign: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-polls/arizona . All but one show Lake winning by margins between 1% and 3%.
Here’s 538’s list of the polls for the Arizona governor contest during the week before the election: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/arizona/. You can see 11 out of 13 polls showed Lake winning, with all but 1 by a margin between 2% and 4%.
H538’s final forecast for the election: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2022-governor-election-forecast/ predicted a Lake victory. Yet Hobbs won … by cheating.
So clearly nothing has been done to stop the cheating in Arizona. That being the case, it probably doesn’t matter who the GOP runs, the UNIPARY will create enough votes to win … just like they didn’t in 2016.
You think the GOP has Arizona in the bag because one poll shows a candidate who isn’t even going to win the republican nomination winning Arizona? That’s nothing but hopium. There are recent polls that show Desantis losing against Biden in Arizona … by YouGov, Premise, Morning Consult, Echelon Insights and Noble Predictive Insights. Some of those poses, like YouGov’s, show Trump doing better than DeSantis, maybe even winning. Of course they all assume no cheating.
One more thing … every hear of Alan Lichtman? They say he’s accurately predicted every election since 1982. He says Biden will win in 2024 if he runs. Here: https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/the-americas/what-is-allan-lichtman-s-prediction-for-the-2024-us-presidential-election-1.1109868 .
I have to wonder why he picked Biden to win in 2020 though. He says he uses 13 key things to determine the winner. The 13 are:
– Party mandate: After the midterm elections the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
– Contest: The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two-thirds of the delegate votes.
– Incumbency: The sitting president is the party candidate.
– Third party: A third-party candidate wins at least 5 percent of the popular vote.
– Short-term economy: The National Bureau of Economic Research has either not declared a recession, or has declared it over prior to the election.
– Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms.
– Policy change: The administration achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the New Deal or the first-term Reagan Revolution.
– Social unrest: There is no social unrest during the term that is comparable to the upheavals of the post-civil war Reconstruction or of the 1960s, and is sustained or raises deep concerns about the unraveling of society.
– Scandal: There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches upon the president
– Foreign or military failure: There is no major failure during the term comparable to Pearl Harbor or the Iran hostage crisis that appears to significantly undermine America’s national interests or threaten its standing in the world.
– Foreign or military success: There is a major success during the term comparable to the winning of World War II or the Camp David Accords that significantly advances America’s national interests or its standing in the world.
– Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower or is an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
– Challenger charisma: The challenger party candidate is not a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower and is not an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.”
He says true answers favor the re-election of the incumbent, while “false” answers favor the challenger. And when six or more of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.
Well, in 2020, only party mandate, being nominated on the first ballot, branding Trump with a bogusly generated scandal and democRATS bogusly generated social unrest favored Biden. Pretty much everything else favored Trump.
Trump was the Incumbent. He was nominated on the first ballot, he did great economically. He had achieve major policy changes comparable to the Reagan Revolution. He enjoyed several foreign policy successes and had no foreign policy failures. He had charisma comparable to a national hero. And he faced a a challenger who was not a national hero, lacked charisma and had dementia. Based on that, Trump should have won. He didn’t only because they cheated.
Now in 2024, the only things Biden can claim in that list that Trump can’t is Incumbency and no Third Party. His winning the nomination on the first ballot is by no means certain. The economy is in shambles. The long term economy is looking even more dismal. He achieve no major policy changes other than ignoring crimes by his own administration and by the LGBQT? community. There is considerable social unrest and there is most certainly concern about the unraveling of society. He and his administration are mired in REAL scandals. His foreign and military policies are laden with failures. There have been no foreign policy or military successes. He has no charisma and his challenger still has considerable charisma.
Based on the above Biden should be the clear loser against almost anyone the GOP runs. In fact, far more than 6 of the items are false, which Lichtman said is an incumbent loss. The only card in the hole he has is the ability to cheat. Just saying …
Bro, you asked me to name one State Biden won in ’20 which he might lose in ’24 based on data.
I gave you one, AZ, with the most recent and most comprehensive mainstream polling data. There are others. Take a look at polling data for all the ‘Battleground’ State both traditional ones and the hopefully temporary ones like GA.
They show a similar pattern; DeSantis leads Biden and Biden leads Trump. That’s the reality my guy and fulfills your quest requirements. Don’t be butthurt b/c you don’t like the data.
CommoChief – “I gave you one, AZ”
And I showed you why the poll might be meaningless, given that the last polls by numerous organizations, including 538 were wrong. I also showed that other polls during the first week of May 2023 give just about any answer one might want to hear regarding Arizona … again suggesting that these polls are meaningless. You are spouting hopium. You’d cling to ANYTHING that suggested DeSantis is a better choice than Trump and that he might beat Biden. But is it real?
“Don’t be butthurt b/c you don’t like the data.”
I’m not. I just pointed out that there’s also data … a lot of data … that suggests the data you’re clinging to is garbage. From a polling organization that is left biased and got it massively wrong in 2022 in Arizona … unless there was democRAT cheating. And keep in mind that 538’s projections in 2016 and 2020 for the Presidential race diverged significantly from the electoral votes. And keep in mind that 538’s owners … ESPN, ABCNews and Disney, … are far from non-political. They are heavily biased towards democRATS.
First your quest line was to ‘Name a State’ that Biden won in ’20 that he may lose in ’24 as of early May ’23, some 18 months out from the election in Nov ’24.
I didn’t issue the quest. I didn’t set the parameters of the quest. You did. It was a dumbass quest line precisely b/c it is way too damn early for the scant polling to reflect what in the heck voters are gonna do 18 months from now. You don’t get to blame me or blame the data b/c it is too damn early for any realistic appraisal of what may actually occur.
As dumb and ridiculous as it was I met the goals of your quest. Get over it.
What is this “bro”, stuff? You think I’m a brother. A pal. A teller of cool stories?
“I didn’t issue the quest. I didn’t set the parameters of the quest.”
You also don’t seem willing to defend your answer to the quest.
“It was a dumbass quest line precisely b/c it is way too damn early for the scant polling to reflect what in the heck voters are gonna do 18 months from now.”
You posted a poll claiming it showed the election process was being fixed, so I posted a list of polls, taken back in 2022 that indicate a positive poll doesn’t prove that. I also posted a list of polls, all taken in the same timeframe as yours, suggesting yours is a flyer.
And now, suddenly, you want to claim polls this early don’t mean anything. But surely, three years after the 2020 steal, there would be signs that the effort to fix the election system were working … if it indeed there were. Where are those signs, CC?
‘Bro’ is b/c you present arguments as well as the average meathead gym bro. For instance you now claim I presented my data set as ‘proof that the election process was being fixed’.
Polls wouldn’t show that my guy, how could they? A poll is a snapshot of responses to the questions posed by the polling outfit. How you can possibly equate a poll, which is an aggregate of opinions, to conclusive proof is beyond me.
That’s bad enough but the real issue is I made no such claim that polling data does anything but reflect the opinions of the sample group to the polling outfit during the timeframe of the poll.
Either you lack minimal reading comprehension skills, don’t understand the words being used and topics discussed, are a liar or just a troll. At best you are embarrassing yourself and don’t even realize that fact. It feels unfair verbally jousting with you, it’s as if I am punching a child. I am through abusing you.
I appreciate your comments. It was easy for me to lose sight of small gains in the day-to-day babble of woke bullshit.
“small gains”. But the big one … the essential one … eludes us.
“You may not be interested in culture war, but culture war is interested in you.”
I’d say, “You may not be interested in culture war, but culture war is fatally attracted to you. We’re talking psycho stalking.”
What does it want from you? 2 things. Compliance and attention. With neither, it starves to death.
Firm resistance and outright mockery would probably be more effective than not paying attention. Agreed on no compliance.
They definitely don’t want your mockery. I’m surprised they haven’t attacked the Bee harder.
Some of them are smart enough not to engage with a better equipped, far more able opponent.
With neither it gets really stabby. Or gulag-y if it has enough power.
Only if you punch it in the nose like with a shark will it finally decide to leave you alone.
Though, if it’s really hungry you may have to go beyond a punch in the nose.
Culture is but one theater of a larger war. Some know about this battle and fight it, some for a long time. Success is now in the hands of the many, largely indifferent, to choose if they truly want to change direction like they say, or if they will accept the new reality being forced on them one technological innovation at a time.
Fortunately, the culture terrorists have a way of biting off too much, and their excesses are becoming more pronounced and noticeable, especially as they grow more authoritarian and the suffering they instill more widely felt. In other words, the battle is far from over. But there are other battles, no less important, that also need to be won.
I see way too much pink and blue hair around here!
Texas has nearly 30,000 declared Trans.
Jesus, and a whole lot of support in this twisted state, once a red state and now with all the California movers and illegals, who probably vote in many areas, it’s at least purple, going blue.
In my once redder than red county, it now votes almost blue.
Hopefully the legislature will pass its law against mutilation of children.
Even with multiple expansions to the category (genderqueer, genderfluid, the subcategory to be added this month), genuine trans people are a tiny minority.
Whenever you encounter trans militancy, ask yourself who funds it, who exploits it, and who expects to gain from it.
The militants may want trans supremacy, but how are they going to get it?
According to current terminology, everyone who is not trans is cis. Nearly the entire population is cis—including those who are banking on trans militancy to bring them to power.
One of the most pernicious tactics used in public debate today is the use of hyperbole with no facts to back them up. A good example is the constant attacks on DeSantis by many Republicans. When they are asked for specifics they point to articles written by hacks. Today I saw a street interview of a progressive brown woman decrying white male privilege. She went on a long rant about how women do not have the same rights that white men have. The interviewer asked her to name a few of the privileges. After a long squirming pause, she said she had to go, and walked away. This is the nature of a culture war. When asked for specifics and examples, they are left speechless. Hollywood just signed a suicide pact with the Oscar board by listing all of the things movie categories must meet to be in the running for an Oscar. It is the opposite of acting and instead guaranteeing failure.
In US, you may engage in culture war. In Soviet Russia, culture war engages you.
Paraphrasing Yakov Smirnov.