Because Donald Trump announced so early, on November 15, 2022, that he was running for President in 2024, it feels like the Republican primaries have been going on forever. By comparison, Trump’s famous escalator ride at Trump Tower to announce his 2016 campaign took place on June 16, seven months later in that cycle than in this cycle.
I know, I know, we’ve been told for months by team Trump and supporters that it’s already over, Meatball ”Pudding-Lover” DeSanctimonious shouldn’t even run and if he does he will destroy his 2028 chances.
If you spend any time on Twitter or Truth Social, that’s the incessant 24/7 messaging. Scaring Ron DeSantis away from running has been the strategy of the Trump campaign, starting with Trump attacking DeSantis (and launching the ‘DeSanctimonious’ name calling) two days before the midterms (unforgivable timing IMO). And then Trump launching his presidential campaign despite pleas that he not overshadow the Georgia runoff. He launched anyway and Herschel Walker became an afterthought and lost.
Team Trump wanted the nomination to be a coronation, not a primary. Sorry, you are getting a primary, and it started today in Iowa.
DeSantis held what for the first time looked and felt like a campaign rally. Yes, he’s been on the road a lot in the past few months, and no he hasn’t officially launched, but this time it looked and felt like a presidential campaign in Iowa. There was a rollout of a long list of endorsements and campaign-style appearances attacking “Fauciism” and those who obsess over the past (a hint at how DeSantis will attack Trump).
Trump also recognized that DeSantis’ Iowa trip was the start of something because he counter-programmed with a planned appearance in Des Moines. That appearance was meant to overshaddow and outnumber DeSantis, but it got called off allegedly for dangerous weather, though DeSantis supporters dispute that was the real reason.
For several months, the primary has been all Trump all the time. He was handed a campaign gift by Alvin Bragg, with polling in mid-to-late March showing a large rally-around effect. But how long will the rally-around effect last? Maybe a long time, maybe not.
And it’s the ‘maybe not’ that has Team Trump worried and insisting it’s over. If they really thought it was over, they wouldn’t keep saying it’s over, they’d just get about their business.
I’m not predicting a DeSantis win. I am saying that Trump needs to worry that he peaked too early in the primaries.
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