The April jobs report looks great. So did March and February. But there’s a buried lede.
You always have to look at revisions, which gives you a better look at previous months.
The February and March jobs report are not as good as they seemed at release time. We lost AROUND 150,000 jobs with the revision:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 78,000, from +326,000 to +248,000, and the change for March was revised down by 71,000, from +236,000 to +165,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 149,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
CASONE: “I went through and looked at the revisions, they are stunning. He said it, I want to say it again here. There’s 149,000 jobs that disappeared between February and March. Those revisions, and Charles is right, that’s why the market is jumping. It’s not on this print, it’s on the revisions for February and March. We went from 326 to 248K in February, 236 down to 165 in March.”
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