I’m running out of popcorn!
Red wave, man. I bet a few of these will not go Republican, but the fact that the GOP is making noise is something to behold.
The Cook Political Report moved 10 traditionally blue districts in favor of the GOP. Biden also dominated these districts in 2020:
CA-09: Likely D to Lean D
CA-26: Solid D to Lean D
CA-47: Lean D to Toss Up
IL-06: Likely D to Lean D
IL-14: Likely D to Lean D
NJ-03: Likely D to Lean D
NY-03: Lean D to Toss Up
NY-04: Lean D to Toss Up
NY-25: Solid D to Likely D
OR-05: Toss Up to Lean R
NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes: 10 more blue state districts move in Republicans' direction, including #CA47 Rep. Katie Porter (D) from Lean D to Toss Up. Full analysis: https://t.co/ldqos2Pi8J pic.twitter.com/rD40MW6vdw
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2022
The Cook Political Report has 212 seats going toward Republicans, 188 toward Democrats, and 35 toss ups.
Let’s dive into a few of these races.
Concerning OR-05…the Democrats shouldn’t have kicked out incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader, a blue-dog Democrat.
Instead, the Democrats nominated Jamie McLeod-Skinner, a progressive populist Sen. Elizabeth Warren adores.
Biden won the district by nine points in 2020. But now the district leans Republican toward Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer. The House Majority PAC has largely abandoned its candidate:
Since then, CLF [Congressional Leadership Fund] has aired $6.2 million in ads attacking McLeod-Skinner – who served on the Santa Clara, CA council between 2004 and 2012 – as a “failed Bay Area politician” who “let tent cities take over neighborhoods.”
McLeod-Skinner has outraised Republican former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer $2.6 million to $1.3 million and has responded to CLF’s barrage by touting her support for more police funding while serving as a rural Oregon city manager. But polling taken by both parties shows CLF’s hits have taken a toll and DeRemer now in the lead, aided by Republican Christine Drazan’s lead in the governor’s race. It’s not totally over, but Democrats’ House Majority PAC has shifted its ad buy to other seats.
Big progressive star Rep. Katie Porter of CA-47 is now a toss-up. Biden carried the district by 11 points in 2020. Hillary won it by seven points in 2016.
The district is also new for Porter, but it holds her hometown of Irvine. It also leans Democrat by one point. House members do not have to live in the district they represent.
The Republicans smell blood and have unloaded money to win the race:
But she’s at genuine risk back home: both parties’ polls now show her in a dead heat against GOP former Assemblyman Scott Baugh. Sensing late opportunity, Republicans’ lead Super PAC, CLF, has aired a late $5.2 million blitz, including a spot featuring female voters mocking Porter’s signature whiteboard to attack her on inflation.
Porter has already faced blowback for calling Irvine’s police department a “disgrace” in leaked texts following a violent scuffle outside one of her town halls in which a man she was living with was arrested. Now, she’s furiously drawing down her war chest to pummel Baugh as a “professional lobbyist and serial law-breaker.” This Orange County seat voted Biden +11 in 2020, but has plenty of GOP DNA and is almost 60% new to Porter after redistricting. It may be weeks before the outcome is clear.
How about Democrat Rep. Josh Harder, who chose to run in CA-09 over his current district CA-13? Democrats in CA-09 have a 15-point advantage concerning registered voters.
Harder has spent millions accusing GOP candidate Tom Patti, San Joaquin County supervisor, of the district’s homelessness and high water bills. The House Majority PAC has put more money into Harder’s campaign since polls have shown the two men in a tie.DONATE
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