There is no way to view the midterm election results as a Republican success. But the full results are not in. It’s likely Republicans will win the House. The Senate also is still in play, with Republicans having to win two of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia — possible.
Definitely not a red tsunami, and not what would be expected where the economy is as bad as it is, and the sitting president is profoundly unpopular. It should have at least been a wave, and the reasons it wasn’t will be studied and the subject of controversy.
Here are some thoughts, in rambling fashion.
If this less-than-wave fell into place in Republicans’ favor the night of the election (last night), people might be feeling less despondent. As Rick Grenell pointed out on Twitter, one of the reasons election night seemed like such a failure is that the media operates on East Coast time. The western races, including California house seats, that may put Republicans over the top were too late for those who write the headlines. And we will not know the results of Nevada and Arizona for at least another day, maybe 2-3 more days. (Georgia has a December 6 runoff.) The time delay in Arizona and Nevada is unconsionable, and not the first time.
So when I went to bed sometime after midnight last night, and woke up not that long after (seriously, I was agitated), I was feeling really down. I’m feeling a little better now, though not happy. It should have been like election night 2016, we should have heard the lamentations of their women. But with the benefit of multiple additional election cycles, perhaps 2016 was a fluke, a unique confluence of factors, including Democrats who underestimated Trump and an electorate motivated by Hillary-hatred. It was catching lightning in a bottle, and may not be possible again.
We will have a lot of time to figure out why these midterms were a disappointment. One of the reasons for sure is that Democrats created and have mastered the art of early and mail-in ballots.
In 2020, using the pandemic as an excuse, Democrats reconfigured much of our electoral system and embraced the new normal, while the Trump campaign focused on in-person election day voting. How did that work out? Democrats continued to embrace banking hundreds of thousands of early and mail-in votes, while Republicans continue to emphasize same-day voting. This tweet from Election Wizard nicely summarized the issue:
“All this Trump v. DeSantis talk is juicy, but under the hood, there’s a far more pressing issue: Democrats fortified their COVID mass mail-in-voting apparatus. It’s a vote-harvesting juggernaut that will continue to produce competitive results no matter the GOP nominee.”
There are a lot of people who will not bother to go and vote, but will check some boxes on a ballot and mail it in, particularly with some assistance. Republicans need an early and mail-in voting operation just as robust as the Democrats, or they will keep losing.
The Republican wins were particularly impressive given what Republicans are up against. “Our Lawyer” Ron Coleman tweeted:
Such pedestrian takes underselling tonight’s results for the GOP. At no point in US history has every single cultural institution – press, entertainment, academia, unions, public employees, the massive public employee sector, the professions, law enforcement, federal agencies … major corporations, Wall Street, non-profits, mainline Protestant denominations, the military – I could go on – been so profoundly and explicitly aligned the way they have been behind the Left in the last five years.There’s nothing “typical” about this midterm election.Moreover, the GOP is bringing legitimately interesting and exciting new blood into its coalitions as candidates, young leaders and voters. This includes many minority communities dismissed as automatic Democrat sectors for all time to come.Not that the GOP isn’t stuck with some old and stale figures – but the Democrats have no bench, no future. No one. And their party message is and will remain rooted in resentment, nihilism, division and contempt for most Americans, their values and and their intelligence.And then you’ll tell me, “It was only Florida!”I mean if you don’t understand or want to accept what Florida means – the Latino vote, the economic growth, the low taxes, the nature of the leadership that transformed its political landscape – I can’t help you. Not at this hour.But if your response is Pennsylvania… Or New York… or Illinois… or California…it is to laugh.You’re missing the forest for the trees. The 20th century is way in the rear view mirror.These states are the living dead of our Republic. They’re bleeding population, representation, talent, youth … NY escaped the fate of the rest of the rust belt by retooling as a financial center and safe tourist attraction. The quarter century of that success was mulcted to zero by Democrats in less than a decade. It’s hopeless.NY is too, and so is PA. Just slower.
Then there’s the Trump factor. I think it’s hard in present time to assess the growing consensus that Trump blew it for Republicans by promoting weak candidates. Some of the Trump candidates were really weak, but some were not. And Republicans have run plenty of weak establishment candidates. Just ask President Romney. More so than weak candidates, Trump-hatred was used to energize the Democrat base.
Then there were the cheap shots Trump took at Ron DeSantis just three days prior to election day. Calling him “Ron DeSanctimonious” dominated the news cycle for 24-48 of those last 72 hours. Also, it was a pathetic nickname, hardly the power of “Crooked Hillary,” “Low Energy Jeb” or “Little Marco.” And then the night before voting, throwing a verbal hand grenade warning DeSantis not to run for president because Trump knows damaging information about DeSantis – really, this is what you are doing the night before a critical national election? And add to it Trump’s announcement that he will make an announcement next week, all to draw attention away from GOTV and onto himself.
I think even a lot of diehard Trump fans would have to admit that was not the time and place – there will be years to fight over a nomination, it didn’t have to take place in the 72 hours before the midterms. And no, it was not a power move or three-dimensional chess. If anything, it elevated DeSantis even more.
So of course this all infuriated DeSantis supporters. And there are a lot of them. And their numbers are growing, which is why Trump is acting precipitously.
I don’t know if DeSantis will run, but the wind is at his back. That said, being a successful Governor doesn’t necessarily translate to the national stage. I thought Scott Walker, having slain the public sector unions and survived withering media fire and protests, would be a great national candidate. But it didn’t work, he never outgrew the Governor’s office. So DeSantis’ sweeping victory doesn’t necessarily translate onto the national stage, but it might. DeSantis has a strong, enthusiastic, adoring base. Not as large for now as Trump’s. but it sets DeSantis apart from others who couldn’t hold an electoral candle to Trump in 2016 – Rubio, Jeb, and the others didn’t have that base.
So I’m waiting to see how the three pending Senate races play out before assessing the end result. Controlling the House means no more Biden legislation, and investigations of the corrupt Biden family influence peddling business. Controlling the Senate means no more judges for Joey, though we still will be at the mercy of Romney, Collins, and possibly Murkowski if she ends up winning the Alaska ranked-voting race.
This whole midterm mess more than anything should be a wake up call.
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