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California Red Tsunami Alert: New Poll Shows Los Angeles Mayoral Contenders are Tied!

California Red Tsunami Alert: New Poll Shows Los Angeles Mayoral Contenders are Tied!

Republican businessman Rick Caruso is slightly ahead of Democrat Karen Bass in a recent poll.

I rarely get to report good news from the People’s Republic of California. However, the red wave sweeping the nation might make it as far as Los Angeles.

Mayoral candidates, Republican businessman Rick Caruso and Democratic Congresswoman Karen Bass, are in a dead heat in the race to be the next mayor of Los Angeles.

Caruso is slightly ahead.

The poll shows Caruso, a political newcomer who has largely self-funded his campaign, with a 3 percentage-point lead (39.8% v. 36.8%) over Bass, a former state Assembly speaker and current congresswoman who has racked up endorsements from some big-name Democrats with national profiles, including President Joe Biden.

But the 3-point lead is too small to be statistically significant, meaning the race to become mayor of the nation’s second-largest city could remain a nail-biter through election day.

The Southern California News Group poll, conducted by Irvine’s J. Wallin Opinion Research, surveyed 400 likely voters in L.A. about the biggest issues facing the city, which mayoral candidate they prefer and whether they support the two city initiatives on the ballot.

The interviews took place Saturday through Monday, Oct. 15-17, and included both English and Spanish speakers using landlines and mobile phones. The respondents matched the demographic composition of the region. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%.

Bass’ case was probably not helped by Biden’s appearance at a recent campaign event.

During a visit to Los Angeles last week, Biden praised the congresswoman, a finalist in the search for his vice presidential running mate in 2020, and reiterated his endorsement of the “soon-to-be Ms. Mayor.” The two appeared alongside current LA Mayor Eric Garcetti, a close Biden ally, and other California elected officials.

In contrast, Caruso has struggled to shake off Democratic skepticism.

“If I had a dollar for every late-election poll portending unexpected results,” quipped Gil Duran, a veteran Democratic operative and political columnist. “But everyone loves a nail-biter.”

Duran told the Washington Examiner that “an 18-point swing in likely voters in two weeks seems improbable,” even as Caruso “is flooding the airwaves.”

Caruso is aggressively going after traditionally Democratic voters.

Caruso’s cause likely helped when the Bass-supporting city council members and a union leader unleashed racist remarks towards blacks, Koreans, and whites, which became public.

I wish Caruso luck in the election and even more luck if he wins.

I would like to give a hat-tip to pundit Don Surber for keeping an eye on this race and sharing the pearl from his recent post.

Imagine the magnitude of the Red Wave if it is large enough to strike Los Angeles.


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Remember: every poll has an implicit and planned Democrat bias.

I’m calling that one a bridge too far.

If it happens, great, but if so I’ll take it as a surprise, thanks.

Never forget the GOP’s ability to choke, as well as voter fraud.

    CommoChief in reply to Oracle. | October 25, 2022 at 10:33 am

    Both true. On the other hand though the r haven’t been close enough to choke away a victory in a while and as a result the d/prog ‘voter enhancement’ operation is probably atrophied a bit in deep blue areas. IOW when you’re used to winning by +15 there’s less need to find creative ways to win and less practice rolling these operations out. That might lead to some surprises but LA Mayor may be a too much of a long shot.

    Caruso is running as a Democrat.

One has to wonder how many of these “late race trends” have to do with actual changing voter opinion, and how many really have to do with the tightened sphincters of panicked pollsters?

This is very doable. Voter turnout is pathetically low in LA. All we would need is for Republicans (and disgruntled Democrats) to actually vote in less pathetic numbers for Caruso to win in a landslide.

2smartforlibs | October 25, 2022 at 1:10 pm

makes it harder to steal races like this. Not that it won’t happen but there is a lot of explaining to do.

All Caruso needs to is show the price of gas in LA and pictures of Skid Row the play recordings of those racist city council members. That horrible woman and others didnt just go after “blacks, koreans and whites” They went after gays, Oaxicans as not the right colored Spanish people, Jews and others. The extreme racism of the Dem power brokers was laid bare.

The Gentle Grizzly | October 26, 2022 at 5:10 am

Fine. Caruso somehow gets elected. The communist city council remains. Caruso is powerless.

Gov Newsome strangely safe.