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Democrats Are Desperately Trying to Spin Their Chances in November With Help From the Media

Democrats Are Desperately Trying to Spin Their Chances in November With Help From the Media

“Pelosi knows she’s about to lose the speaker’s gavel.”

Democrats know they are headed for defeat in November, but they’re trying to manage the loss with the full support of the media.

David Catron writes at the American Spectator:

The Democratic Momentum Mirage

To gauge the trepidation with which the Democrats view the midterms, consider their reaction to last week’s special elections in New York’s 19th and 23rd congressional districts. They eked out a two-point win in the former and lost the latter. Yet, the Democrats and their friends in the Fourth Estate hailed the NY-19 victory as a portent of doom for the GOP in November. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared, “Republicans should be very, very, very scared this morning about their prospects.”

The lady doth protest too much, to quote the Swan of Avon. Pelosi knows she’s about to lose the speaker’s gavel. The weak Democratic showing in New York is typical of their record in special House elections held since 2020. They failed to flip a single GOP seat while enduring a historic defeat in Texas’s 34th District. So, is NY-19 a bellwether? Nope. We heard the same tale after a Pennsylvania Democrat won a special election in 2010. This was touted as proof that no GOP wave would materialize in that year’s midterms. Politico’s piece was especially smug:

All the evidence pointing to monster Republican House gains this fall—the Scott Brown upset win in Massachusetts, the scary polling numbers in once-safely Democratic districts, the ever-rising number of Democratic seats thought to be in jeopardy—was contradicted Tuesday … In the only House race that really mattered to both parties—the special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha in Pennsylvania’s 12th District—Republicans failed spectacularly.

When Election Day arrived, however, the Democratic House majority was swamped by a 63-seat Republican tsunami. The GOP also picked up six seats in the Senate. This year, the Republicans don’t need a wave to win a majority in either house of Congress. All they require is a five-seat gain in the House of Representatives and a one-seat gain in the Senate. Moreover, despite countless claims to the contrary by the Democrats and corporate media, the actual impact of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling on Republican momentum has been exaggerated.

A new poll conducted for the Institute of Politics at Harvard University by Echelon Insights asked likely voters the following question: “If you had to choose just one, which would you say is the biggest issue facing the country today?” The top response was “cost of living.” Abortion came in fifth. When asked to choose between “protecting abortion rights” and “reducing inflation,” voters chose the latter by a 39 percent margin. Two-thirds of respondents answered, “reducing inflation.” Only 27 percent answered “protecting abortion rights.”

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Comments

Nice to see a bit of optimism. I suspect it will play out as the article describes, but we should vote with an enthusiasm as if the MSM drumbeat of doom is spot on.

A new poll conducted for the Institute of Politics at Harvard University by Echelon Insights asked likely voters the following question: “If you had to choose just one, which would you say is the biggest issue facing the country today?” The top response was “cost of living.” Abortion came in fifth

I participated in a similar poll, if not that same one, and was struck by the fact that someone saying abortion is the biggest issue doesn’t tell us anything at all about whether she’s for it or against it! Ditto with guns; suppose a majority said it was the most important issue, that would still tell us nothing about whether they were for or against it.

    henrybowman in reply to Milhouse. | August 31, 2022 at 6:10 pm

    This. I’ve seen a lot of polls where if I had ranked “gun control” as my pre-eminent issue, I was deadnutz positive my concerns would be misconstrued.

Optimism is nice but here is no cause for complacency. If Dobbs changes anything, it will boost overall turnout greatly and probably shift some group’s votes at the margins. Pretty much everybody is energized to vote over something. Everyone is either angry, afraid, or both over something. Never assume you have it in the bag. Don’t forget to vote on election day.

Ha ha.
Scott Brown.
A Trojan horse RINO so bad that he couldn’t even get a second term in MA.

Another Voice | August 31, 2022 at 11:08 pm

I’m a registered Republican voter in the NY 23rd Congressional District. A District considered as +6 Republican. Congressman Tom Reed resigned his seat in May and in the Special Election we had only one candidate on the Republican ballot and that was Joe Sempolinski, Steuben County Republican Committee chair and Reed’s campaign manager. The seat is valid up to 12/31/22 when the new redistricting map goes into effect, At which time I will be voting in the 19th district in November as well as will the Republicans that helped make the 23rd a +6 district. Of the 11 counties incorporated into this new balanced district, 7 of them (based on prior votes cast) are either recorded as voting Republican (4) and Likely Republican (3). The other 4 areas are recorded as being Democrat (1) and Likely Democrat (3). The distribution in numbers look favorable to the Republicans.

In other words, Pelosi is bloviating an outcome based on what the district looks like now, not in November. For the same reason Reed went to Albany for 6 terms, we will be at the polls giving the Democrats a run for Up State NY.