A lot of people expect a red wave election in November. New reports from two key battleground states confirm that this will likely happen.
Nevada has been trending blue for several election cycles, but that might be about to change. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but the Democrats won it back in 2020. Now it could go red again.
Ruy Teixeira writes about what is happening in Nevada at Substack:
The Democrats’ Nevada ProblemWhat do you get when you combine the Democrats’ Hispanic voter problem with the Democrats’ working class voter problem? Something like the Democrats’ Nevada problem.On one level, it might seem odd that there should be a Democratic Nevada problem. Nevada is the most rapidly-diversifying state in the country—it recently became majority-minority—and should continue to be so in the future. All else equal, that should favor the Democrats and it is true that Democrats have carried the state in the last four Presidential election and currently hold the governorship and both US Senate seats.But hidden in these facts are some troubling signs. Despite rapid diversification, the Democratic margin in Presidential elections from 2008 to 2016 declined sharply from 12.5 to 2.4 points. And in 2020, as the Democrats gained ground in the country as a whole, the Democratic margin in Nevada went from 2.4 points…..to 2.4 points. That means that—again, despite rapid diversification of the electorate—Nevada went from three-tenths of percentage more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2016 to 2 points more Republican in 2020.
Teixeira suggests this change is being driven, in large part, by Hispanic and black working-class voters.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans register more voters than Democrats by a margin of four to one, and many of the new Republicans are former Democrats.
Reuters reports:
Republican registrations surge in Pennsylvania in warning sign for DemocratsRepublicans are registering formerly Democratic voters at four times the rate that Democrats are making the reverse conversion in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a warning sign for Democrats as they try to keep control of the U.S. Congress.The Republican gains in Pennsylvania, home to a critical U.S. Senate race, follow a pattern seen in other states that could have competitive contests in November’s elections, as high levels of disapproval with President Joe Biden’s handling of his job are helping narrow the long-held advantage held by Democrats in numbers of registered voters.”I just got fed up and just felt like there has to be a better way,” said Beth Jones, 48, a retired Philadelphia police officer who last month registered as a Republican, ending her three-decade affiliation with the Democratic Party.Similar to other recent converts interviewed by Reuters, Jones cited concerns about inflation and violent crime in making the switch…Nowhere is the Republican advance in voter registration more evident than in Pennsylvania, where so far this year Republicans have converted four Democrats for every Republican who has switched to the Democratic Party, according to data published by Pennsylvania’s Department of State.
It will be months before we see whether or not this has any real impact on voting, but it’s a terrible sign for Democrats as their standard-bearer continues to sink in the polls.
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