Democrats Have Growing Political Problems in Nevada and Pennsylvania
“Nowhere is the Republican advance in voter registration more evident than in Pennsylvania, where so far this year Republicans have converted four Democrats for every Republican who has switched to the Democratic Party”
A lot of people expect a red wave election in November. New reports from two key battleground states confirm that this will likely happen.
Nevada has been trending blue for several election cycles, but that might be about to change. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but the Democrats won it back in 2020. Now it could go red again.
Ruy Teixeira writes about what is happening in Nevada at Substack:
The Democrats’ Nevada Problem
What do you get when you combine the Democrats’ Hispanic voter problem with the Democrats’ working class voter problem? Something like the Democrats’ Nevada problem.
On one level, it might seem odd that there should be a Democratic Nevada problem. Nevada is the most rapidly-diversifying state in the country—it recently became majority-minority—and should continue to be so in the future. All else equal, that should favor the Democrats and it is true that Democrats have carried the state in the last four Presidential election and currently hold the governorship and both US Senate seats.
But hidden in these facts are some troubling signs. Despite rapid diversification, the Democratic margin in Presidential elections from 2008 to 2016 declined sharply from 12.5 to 2.4 points. And in 2020, as the Democrats gained ground in the country as a whole, the Democratic margin in Nevada went from 2.4 points…..to 2.4 points. That means that—again, despite rapid diversification of the electorate—Nevada went from three-tenths of percentage more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2016 to 2 points more Republican in 2020.
Teixeira suggests this change is being driven, in large part, by Hispanic and black working-class voters.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans register more voters than Democrats by a margin of four to one, and many of the new Republicans are former Democrats.
Reuters reports:
Republican registrations surge in Pennsylvania in warning sign for Democrats
Republicans are registering formerly Democratic voters at four times the rate that Democrats are making the reverse conversion in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a warning sign for Democrats as they try to keep control of the U.S. Congress.
The Republican gains in Pennsylvania, home to a critical U.S. Senate race, follow a pattern seen in other states that could have competitive contests in November’s elections, as high levels of disapproval with President Joe Biden’s handling of his job are helping narrow the long-held advantage held by Democrats in numbers of registered voters.
“I just got fed up and just felt like there has to be a better way,” said Beth Jones, 48, a retired Philadelphia police officer who last month registered as a Republican, ending her three-decade affiliation with the Democratic Party.
Similar to other recent converts interviewed by Reuters, Jones cited concerns about inflation and violent crime in making the switch…
Nowhere is the Republican advance in voter registration more evident than in Pennsylvania, where so far this year Republicans have converted four Democrats for every Republican who has switched to the Democratic Party, according to data published by Pennsylvania’s Department of State.
It will be months before we see whether or not this has any real impact on voting, but it’s a terrible sign for Democrats as their standard-bearer continues to sink in the polls.
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Comments
It’s still a matter of who counts the votes. At minimum, no Republican poll watcher should allow themself to be evicted during counting.
I’m thinking I’ll stay a PA Democrat, become a poll watcher. call out any corruption I see, and make sure I vote Non-RINO Republican in November.
Nevada, thanks to total Dem control, now conducts mail in balloting with ballots sent to all registrered voters with harvesting allowed. Oh yeah, we can choose to use voting machines for early voting and on Election Day at far fewer locations if we surrender our mail in ballots. Doesn’t bode well.
That the Dem party is still legally existing is their biggest problem. Ours too.
Ann Coulter has been saying for years that the Democrat Party is a Racketeering Influenced Corrupt Organization.
First time I read that in one of her columns, I thought it was hilarious.
Now I see that it’s true and I don’t laugh as much.
A Red Wave is meaningless if the election fraud issue is not addressed.
It is being addressed in many States. The key is maintaining the pressure on reluctant legislators. If they aren’t solid on simple fixes:
1. Voter registration- fix any CPU system in the DMV that doesn’t make registration an input v automatic, audit rolls for age anomaly such as thousands over age 85 in a single precinct, physical street address requirements and death data from SSI, Jury service, tax data, other States and federal data points
2. Ballot security measures – use of a DL or ID number at poll or returned mail ballot v signature match, limit ballot access to voter and poll/counting workers
3. Automatic rotating audits in select precincts to capture 15% Statewide to ensure compliance
4. Prohibition on process or procedure change 90 days from primary so that there is consistency through general election
5. Prosecution for violation
All that is common sense and not really controversial. It will not happen unless voters raise enough Cain with State legislature to make it happen. It’s up to us to force the issue, if not it won’t happen.
That’s great but the Democrats ignore the laws and won’t clean the rolls and liberal judges give them cover. I read where groups sued to have Voter rolls cleaned Up and nothing happened.
The question isn’t what d/prog politicians will or won’t do. They ain’t gonna roll over and give up. They are going to fight like hell to resist reform. The question is what level of commitment you have and how willing you are to do the very hard job of reforming the system v just talking about reform and bemoaning how hard it will be.
It’s the simple choice to be a winter Soldier willing to make sacrifices and endure hardship or to be a sunshine patriot unwilling to do so.
The number of people switching parties isn’t high enough for this 3-1 advantage to be that meaningful.
Less than 150K votes in five States cost r the HoR, Senate and WH in 2020. It was that close. Registration matters. You don’t walk onto the car lot unless you’re looking to buy and you don’t change registration unless you’re going to vote.
When you cheat, you don’t want to make it rediculous so just enough to win and not trigger a recount is perfect. Besides they have to pay those ballot harvesters and extra ballots.
Biden lied to the people of PA about fuel. They haven’t forgotten.
geronl, keep telling yourself and your friends that….we don’t want you working extra hard to harvest and fraud fill a bunch of ballots.
Nevada has 15 heavily red counties and one heavily blue county. And the latter is so populous that it’s used to getting everything it wants. Maybe that’s about to change. They’ll have to fix the cheating first, though.
Pennsylvania counties are also majority red, with the percentage of gun ownership (primarily hunters) higher than all but a few states. Again they have one big, blue city (and one smaller one) that is used to getting everything it wants, including special “anti-preemption laws” when they don’t like the freedoms prevalent in the rest of their state. Would be fine to see that change, too.
A lot go good insight there Henry. Thanks.
“Democrats have growing political problems”
They plan to solve their problems by growing ballots in the summer and harvesting them in November.
The GOP must act by passing statewide voting laws and then enforce the law. So far I see a lot of talk and little action. I’m still Waiting on the arrests.
they did overturn some of the voting laws that were passed in the pandemic haze – so tha should be good for the red
As of right now there is no evidence of Nevada or any other state being carried or impacted by fraud, and there is every indication from actual elections since 2020 that Republicans will carry states that are right now in blue hands, and that we are seeing faith 2020 had enough voter fraud to have an impact is turning into a religion.
When Republicans make a clean sweep in 2022 there will be a religious reason to explain why the “cheaters” supposedly didn’t cheat to save their own jobs, and why therefore we should focus on relitigating 2020 instead of say banning CRT and Radical Gender theory from schools and fighting for the culture.
There are things like Zuck Bucks and Censorship that did impact 2020. The voter fraud claims are an alternative to tackling those.
Your man-crush, Mitch, just sent money to help Liz Cheney, Danny. A clean sweep won’t mean much with the likes of him in charge. Tell us all how great he is again.
We won Virginia by a margin that would have been as hard to defeat as putting on a hat if fraud on a scale to change a state election was real. Would you like to know how we did it? Glenn Youngkin ran on a major issue people cared about, threw the voter fraud narrative under the bus (because the narrative both keeps Republicans from voting and is alienating to everyone else).
Do you know how we just won KENOSHA for the first time in 25 years? That’s right by throwing this fraud narrative under the bus and campaigning on issues people care about.
You know who suffessfully negotiated with Senators Sinema and Manchin to keep our fillibuster and who preserved the filibuster when Trump wanted to eliminate it (which would have meant we wouldn’t have it)? That’s right Mitch McConnell.
Liz Cheney is gone and I really don’t care about her or other parts of yesterdays news I care about fighting for the future which it looks like you aren’t doing.
Or maybe there is magic fraud, only effects elections with Donald Trump, doesn’t help incumbent Democrats win, doesn’t keep Democrats in power in blue states, doesn’t impact Republicans making their case in districts that have been in Democrat hands for 25-50 years, leaves behind zero proof that could stand up to scrutiny and avoid a slander lawsuit (Cyber Monkeys tried to disband itself to avoid a lawsuit which doesn’t tell me they acted in good faith)……
In Georgia we tried the “elections are rigged” strategy, we lost two senate seats and the senate with it.
What’s all that have to do with your boy supporting a malignant quisling over an actual conservative? I voted for Mitch’s primary opponent last time he was up. A future without the GOPe is what I fight for.
“We won Virginia by a margin that would have been as hard to defeat as putting on a hat if fraud on a scale to change a state election was real.”
Or, you won it by such a massive margin that it overwhelmed all the cheating that was already in place and did occur. Just like we believe Trump did in 2016.
You really have no way of distinguishing the two cases, so your claim is nonsense.
I am convinced here in Pa Trump won outright, we still have had fraud from the biggest cities for decades and not going to end anytime soon. But am sure the rest of state is Red
We have a Senate and Governor and they are critical. Our Governor was Covid Dictatorship and needs to stop in future.
And btw he gave you all Dr Lavine
Just two states? I think they have a fifty-seven state problem, lol.
I guess as long as they keep the dead from voting then anything is possible.
https://thefederalist.com/2022/04/08/explosive-pennsylvania-testimony-explains-how-leftist-money-infiltrated-election-offices-in-2020/
This is why we are screwed if we can’t get a Republican Governor
We could have spent the last two years discussing that instead of voter fraud, and not discrediting claims like those in the minds of people who don’t like being lied to about how the election was stolen by voter fraud.
it’s all fun and games having a make-believe president, until the country goes sideways and we’re close to WWIII – the adults need to take back control.