U.S. Intel: Russia Preparing Military Offensive Against Ukraine
“Biden administration says military offensive would include an estimated 175,000 troops.”
Russia is preparing a military offensive against Ukraine, U.S. intelligence officials warn. “The new intelligence finding estimates that the Russians are planning to deploy an estimated 175,000 troops and almost half of them are already deployed along various points near Ukraine’s border,” the Associated Press reported Saturday.
The Russian military offensive against Ukraine could come as early as January, the Ukrainian government fears. “Our intelligence service analyzes all scenarios, including the worst ones. It notes that a probability of a large-scale escalation on the part of Russia exists. The most probable time when [Moscow] will be ready for the escalation is the end of January,” Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov informed the country’s parliament on Friday.
The military buildup comes as President Joe Biden is expected to hold a phone conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The Russian president wants Ukraine, a former soviet republic, not to come under NATO’s sphere of influence. Putin “demanded “legal guarantees” on Wednesday that the NATO alliance would never expand eastward,” The New York Times reported Wednesday.
Like most of the former Soviet bloc countries of Europe, Ukraine seeks closer ties with the NATO and the European Union in an effort to shield itself from any future Russian expansion.
The Associated Press reported the growing threat of Russian invasion of Ukraine:
President Joe Biden pledged Friday to make it “very, very difficult” for Russia’s Vladimir Putin to take military action in Ukraine as U.S. intelligence officials determined that Russian planning is underway for a possible military offensive that could begin as soon as early 2022.
The new intelligence finding estimates that the Russians are planning to deploy an estimated 175,000 troops and almost half of them are already deployed along various points near Ukraine’s border, according to a Biden administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the finding. (…)
The official added that the plans call for the movement of 100 battalion tactical groups along with armor, artillery and equipment.
Intelligence officials also have seen an uptick in Russian propaganda efforts through the use of proxies and media outlets to denigrate Ukraine and NATO ahead of a potential invasion, the official said.
Ukraine has good reasons to fear Russian military aggression. In early 2014, Russian troops invaded and subsequently annexed Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula home of the strategic naval port of Sevastopol.
Russia also holds sway over parts of eastern Ukraine controlled by the Moscow-backed Ukrainian separatist militia. Reports suggest that pro-Russian militia are also gearing up for combat. “Russian-controlled forces in eastern Ukraine are increasing combat readiness and have carried out large-scale exercises,” the Reuters reported last month, citing the Ukrainian defense ministry.
Ukraine is not the only former soviet republic to face Russia’s wrath for seeking close alliance with the West. In 2008, Russia went to war with Georgia, occupying large parts of the country and declaring two of its renegade provinces as ‘independent republics.’
Despite repeated assurances from the West, these ex-soviet republics are practically defenseless in face of overwhelming Russian military might. The NATO recognized Ukraine and Georgia as potential members of the defense bloc as early as 2008, but apparently no further measures have since been taken.
In recent months, Russia has encouraged the Moscow-backed Belarusian regime to undertake hostile actions against neighboring Poland and Lithuanian, both members of the EU and the NATO. thousands of immigrants, flown in by Belarus from Syria, Afghanistan, and other countries, have clashed with Polish and Lithuanian border guards.
Russia’s increasing belligerence comes with its growing military ties with China. Moscow has now forged a ‘de facto’ military alliance with the Communist giant, the newspaper South China Morning Post reported last month. China and Russia “signed a road map for closer military cooperation over the next five years,” the daily reported.
Secretary Blinken: Russia planning ‘significant aggressive moves against Ukraine’
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Comments
Was there ever any doubt after Nov 3rd?
There was no doubt at all after Afghanistan debacle in August.
The only question is how much the Russians will have to pay Biden to do nothing when Russia invaded Ukraine. $20 million is my estimate.
Exactly as predicted.
Biden is a drooling moron, the generals are all woke pieces of trash, and the US military has never been weaker.
Weakness breeds conflict.
Military action here or against Taiwan would be a “Black Swan” event that would crash the US stock market.
Embrace the awesome power of “and.” When Russia invades Ukraine would be the ideal time for the PRC to invade Taiwan. Biden can’t deal with one of these events effectively. The entire Biden administration “brain trust” would implode.
I know. How about sending Buttigeig out to tell people who can’t afford gas or to put food on the table that they’re on the case. Yessiree Bob! Just wait and the people who can’t afford gas will have the opportunity to buy a $40k and up electric vehicle. And, oh by the way, since they can’t afford gas (or food) due entirely to Biden admin energy policies, just wait to see how much it will cost when (how did Obama put it?) your electricity bill necessarily skyrockets.
If you can charge it at all. Wait until Biden follows in Gavin Newsom’s footsteps and brings Kali’s rolling blackouts nationwide.
Electing the Biden/Harris over Trump/Pence was the international affairs/diplomatic/military/national security version of “Defund the Police!”
TRANSCRIPT – CALL BETWEEN PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES (JOE BIDEN) AND PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (VLADIMIR PUTIN)
Biden: Hello, Vlad, Vlad? I have you on a speaker phone. Is this thing on? Where did I…. Who’s supposed to be on the other…..
Putin: Joe, I’m here. It’s me. What can I do for you?
Biden: Um…. uh….. Dang! C’mon man! What am I supposed to….. where did I put those notes, um….
CJCS Milley in background: Tell him he needs to understand his white rage! He needs to get it under control!
Biden: And Vlad…. I know your angry because, well, you just don’t have enough black people to oppress, I mean, you’re white and there’s a bunch of white guys over there in Russia, and hardly any black people to oppress, so you must be really, really angry.
Putin: What? Honestly, I’m not angry and have no interest in oppressing black people, per se.
Biden: Well, well, c’mon man! Don’t deny it. I mean, I know what it’s like to need to oppress black people, I mean, well, it makes me angry I’m not allowed to do it even though I really want to, I mean, in the old days, me and Robert Byrd, my mentor in the Senate, you remember Robert, would go out clubbing, and I don’t mean out to night clubs, you know what I mean?
Putin: I don’t mean to be rude, but I’m quite busy. Is there something you want?
Hunter Biden in Background: Dad, step back from the phone!
Hunter Biden: Vlad, it’s me, Hunter!
Putin: Hunter! So good to hear your voice again.
Hunter Biden: Sure, but never mind. Vlad, this is a business call. It regards the Ukraine.
Putin: Sure, sure, it’s always business with you Hunter, always business.
Hunter Biden: OK, here’s the deal – You can have the Ukraine if you buy two works of art from me for $10 million each. OK?
Putin: That sounds reasonable.
CJCS Milley in background: Don’t forget my poetry collection.
Hunter Biden: Oh, and Milley needs you to publish the Russian language version of his poetry compendium, “My White Rage: How All I Want to do I to Kill Black People.” He needs you to print 100,000 copies and give him a sales advance.
Putin: For Mark? Sure,! Sure! No problem. I love to read what he writes. Very entertaining! Very entertaining! The Russian people will love it! Just eat it up!
Hunter Biden: And remember to add 10% for the big guy as usual, but make sure you send it to my account, and not his, OK? I take care of his money now.
Putin: Sure, sure, it all goes to your account. Say, I don’t actually have to hang your art anywhere, do I?
Hunter Biden: Oh, come on Vlad, it’s invisible art anyway. No one’s ever going to see it, dig?
Putin: Sure, Quite clever, quite clever, OK, deal! I’m writing the check right now. I’ll FEDEX straight away. Say, could you put Joe back on the phone?
Biden: Hello? Hello? Who is this? What do you want?
Putin: Joe, this is Vlad. Say, you should come to Moscow to visit me. I’ll get some hookers to pee on your bed.
Biden: What? Hookers peeing in my bed? Why would I want hookers to pee in my bed when I’m perfectly capable of peeing on it myself. I already do it to or three times a night as it is. Who is this? What do you want? Are you saying I’m not able to pee in my own bed? Because I’ll tell you fella, whoever you are, I can pee just fine in my own bed, you understand me. And if you don’t believe that, you just tell me where you are and I’ll come over and pee in your bed, fella. Understand!
Hunter Biden in background: Dad! Dad! Look over hear! Look! It’s shinny and swirly, look over hear dad!
CJCS Milley in background: Bye Vlad, I’ll call to let you know if we ever do something so you can be prepared.
Putin: Thanks, Mark. You’re a great guy.
END TRANSCRIPT
Very entertaining and, unfortunately, all too plausible.
Are the bad guys bringing those WMDs the “Intelligence (lol) community” told us about? A few thousand Gold Star Families sure would like to know where they went.
As a former member of the IC, I can tell you that we didn’t tell you a damn thing about Iraqi WMDs. I had been recalled to active duty and the Pentagon distro’d a briefing package, which I dutifully briefed to my Admiral. And when I did, I made sure to point out all the gaps in the intel used to support the stated casus belli. And it wasn’t just about the WMD. As I recall the Authorization for the Use of Military Force listed 28 reasons. Personally, and I can talk about this because all the information is publicly available, Iraq had been in continuous violation of the cease fire agreement since before the ink was dry on the Safwan Accords. That is really all we needed; the Iraqis were shooting at our aircraft. By definition a cease fire agreement (or Armistice if you prefer) only exists between two countries that are already at war (as I pointed out at the time there were two places on earth where Bush couldn’t start a war; Iraq and North Korea since per international law the state of war already exists, and continues to exist until there’s a peace treaty). Once a country violates a cease fire by, dunno, resuming firing there is no longer a cease fire and the signatory powers can (and damn well should if they have any sense) resume hostilities immediately.
NOT WAIT 12 F***ING YEARS.
But if you want more, Saddam Hussein’s ties to and support of terrorist organizations before and after Desert Storm was undeniable because he was so public about it. He was trying to enhance his “Islamic warrior defending the faith against the infidels” as if he were the reincarnation of Saladin. He added the Arabic script for “Allahu Akbar” to the Iraqi flag, held annual and very public terrorist conventions in Baghdad (Newsweek reported on these, and said the attendees were basically the “Who’s Who” of Islamic terrorist organizations), and again very publicly he provided financial aid to the families of Islamic suicide murderers who died attacking Israel. Moreover both Iraq and Iran have been sued by the families of 9/11 victims in federal court and have won large cash awards. Of course Bush2 in all his “wisdom” stopped the families from collecting on their claim against Iraq when he asserted that all frozen Iraqi assets were vested in the fund for the development of Iraq.
The bottom line is that in at least one federal court case the plaintiffs were able to prove that not only was Saddam Hussein supporting Islamic terror generally, but al Qaeda specifically, and his support helped al Qaeda pull off the 9/11 attack. I mentioned Iran because one of the stupidest things you’ll hear is that Iran is Shia, AQ is sunni, and there’s no way they’ll help each other. One of the reasons it’s so stupid is the evidence is right in front of our faces right now that Shia Iran will aid Sunni terrorists. Hamas is designated a terrorist group by the U.S., the EU, Britain, and just about every country on earth that matters. Hamas isn’t just Sunni, it’s the Gazan wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, and Iran is gleefully helping Hamas as it’s attacking Israel.
News flash: Sunnis and Shias both hate Jews, Christians, and other infidels more than they hate each other (usually). Anybody who doesn’t understand that doesn’t understand how the Islamic world works. There’s a saying in Arabic: me against my brother, my brother and I against our cousin.
Equally stupid were the people who claimed devout Muslims like those in al Qaeda would never work with Saddam Hussein as he was an apostate secularist. See the above paragraph for correction. And he wanted and needed the publicity the same way the Egyptian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood proudly showed off their torture sites after taking power and when the people started to rebel against them. Terrorism doesn’t work unless people know all about it.
What you don’t seem to know about the IC is that we don’t all have the same mission. None of the intelligence services of the five armed forces would have had a position on the state of Iraqi WMD programs anymore than we’d have had a position on Russian interference in U.S. elections. Because that has nothing to do with supporting operational forces. I can tick through the list of the remaining 12 members of the IC and show how these simply aren’t in our rice bowl. Until you get down to the four (sometimes five) usual suspects. The agencies that deal in crap like the Steele dossier, and completely missed such minor events as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the Iranian Revolution. Probably because they’re too busy forging FISA warrants so they can illegally spy on Americans.
What you were told about Iraqi WMDs came from Bush2’s PR flacks. And they were being fed crap by the usual suspects, and I figure they were stupid enough to trust the same clowns who told Clinton that aspirin factory in Sudan was definitely making WMDs, too. Probably because they all went to the same Ivy League schools and later joined the same country clubs.
Unless you sat in on a classified briefing that I was giving you didn’t hear about Iraqi WMDs from me. I also wasn’t in charge of the Bush White House PR strategy, which I thought was incredibly stupid. We can set Jeb “illegal immigration is an act of love” Bush for the moment because his political career is over, thank God. But given the judgement displayed by both Bush1 and 2 throughout this whole Iraq mess I wouldn’t trust either of them to babysit my pet rock.
Bush1 called off the dogs when he saw video of destruction on the “Highway of Death” as the Iraqi army fled Kuwait back into Iraq, saying they had “had enough.” But most of those wrecked vehicles were civilian private or commercial vehicles they had stolen in Kuwait. He allowed the Iraqi army to escape almost intact and with the vast majority of their equipment including armor. He allowed Saddam Hussein to violate the cease fire with what amounted to impunity. He and Clinton were later caught on an open mike. Bush1 told Clinton it would have been “stupid to go all the way to Baghdad.”
Our leaders are the most incompetent poker players in the world. They can’t even pull off a bluff. Even if Bush1 and Clinton agreed on that, the last thing you want an adversary to know your threats are completely empty. And, maybe all those Gold Star families should take this up with Bush1 (or rather, should have while he was still alive). Because winning would involve going all the way to Baghdad. What is a President doing if he’s willing to put American troops in harm’s way but isn’t willing to do what it takes to win?
Then France convinces Turkey to screw us over and not allow us to open a northern front via their territory. Not that it would have taken much as Turkey hasn’t been an ally for decades. So what does the Bush admin do? It doesn’t adjust its plans or the timeline, which is historically a recipe for disaster. One might argue we went through Iraqi forces like a hot knife through butter so who cares? There’s lots of evidence, particularly imagery, that Iraqi truck convoys took their biological weapons program into Syria. You don’t need much in the way of space to have an effective biological weapons program. In fact, a single semi trailor gives you all the space you need. A northern front would have prevented those convoys from rolling into Syria.
Recall during Desert Storm Saddam Hussein sent his air force to Syria and Iran for safe keeping (he never got the planes back from Iran). Sending some of his WMDs and production equipment to Syria was his signature move. It’s almost like Bush2 didn’t want to find any of the WMD evidence (you realize that WMD doesn’t just mean “nuclear weapons,” right?) that he had stupidly and needlessly made the centerpiece for invading Iraq. Now people with short attention spans think it was the only reason when it wasn’t even the best reason.
And then there was the stupid nation building. Why did Bush listen to Colin Powell and his “Pottery Barn” rule? Anybody who poses as a military commander should be immediately relieved of said command for citing as some kind of authority Pottery Barn’s rules for shopping.
All in all the invasion of Iraq was completely justified if only on the basis that they were shooting at our aircraft. That isn’t what the legally binding words in a cease fire agreement mean by “cease fire.” There were other compelling bases for continuing hostilities as well. Others I thought were complete bulls***.
But I’ve learned that just because we might be completely justified to take military action, if we are going to put idiots in charge (as Obama said about Biden, “Never underestimate Joe’s ability to f*** things up”) then just don’t. As Sun Tzu said, and I”m paraphrasing, if you know yourself and your enemy you will be successful in a thousand battles, if you only know yourself but not your enemy, or only your enemy but not yourself, you will lose half your battles, and if you know neither yourself nor your enemy you will never succeed in any battle.
We sure as hell don’t know our Islamic enemy because that would be racisss and Islamophoooobic! Despite the fact they’ve been using the same thin play book over and over again for over a thousand years we refuse to read it let alone learn from it.
And we don’t know ourselves. We have troops in South Korea because we are still by law and in fact in a state of war. We have unfinished business from 70 years ago because we don’t win wars anymore. There are only two ways to finish a war; you either win it or lose it. If we’re going to get involved in wars with no intention of winning then all our “elites” are doing is sending troops to their deaths in a conflict they intend to lose.
After Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait he offered the U.S. free oil as long as we just stayed out of it. If we were honest with ourselves we would have taken the deal.
Wars without borders. Coups without cause. The Russians are following precedents, while America takes a knee. All’s fair in lust and abortion.
The fact is that Saddam did have 2,500 WMDs that we found after the war. This was reported on the front page of the NYT.
Seems they are as reliable as the season. A liberal in office means eastern Europe is attacked.
Not just Eastern Europe. Israel, too. Hamas May 2021. A war caused by Joe Biden’s equivocation.
And Taiwan. We used to maintain forces to fight on two fronts. Now we don’t have enough for one./
Don’t forget Iran. Possible 3rd flashpoint. If they detonate a nuclear weapon the Gulf States will go nuts. And Israel will go ballistic – literally.
I was thinking about Iran and Israel as I was reading this post, and the comments mentioning Taiwan. I wouldn’t be surprised if Israel looks at the utter incompetence, fecklessness, and shear weakness of this administration (and I’m not saying Biden/Harris and the Democrat party leadership don’t also intend to do harm to Israel as well) and decide they’re on their own. And then they do whatever they know they need to do to protect themselves.
With all the Russia, Russia, Russia the Leftists have screaming about these last 5 years you would think they would be chomping at the bit to get after them.
No?
Russia had better not attack Ukraine!
Otherwise, the Biden State Department would be forced to take drastic action. They might even go so far as to send Putin a strongly worded letter.
They will refuse to use Putin’s pronouns. Take that person who rules Russia.
Antony Blinken might even take things further than that, bro. He might steeple his fingers, furrow his brow, and look concerned. It’s the Democrat Secretary of State trifecta.
I’m sure former KGB thug and black belt Judoka Vladimir Putin is losing sleep worried that Blinken might hit him with the trifecta.
We’ve been assured for decades that Biden is a foreign policy genius.
He is.
A genius at screwing things up.
in only 9 months he has fully f*cked America’s foreign and domestic policy.
Let’s go Brandon.
Swell. Another war the Potemtagon is certain to lose while butchering thousands of American soldiers.
Just in time for them to have lost all the unvaxed ones that would have fought without all those pesky heart attacks and brain clots.
I’m sure that discharge or punishment of the unvaccinated ones will be placed on hold.
One must hope that the Ukrainians understand that they are on their own. Neither the U.S. nor NATO will come to their aid. Chancellor Merkel and her replacement certainly will not risk oil and NG supplies from Russia. And our own President Klain has not demonstrated that he has the leadership skills to rally NATO.
IMO, attempting to rally NATO is a non starter. Other than the US outside BR and FR none of NATO has enough troops/equipment or resources to move and support them. More importantly none seem to have the will to do so in defense of the Ukraine which is not a NATO member. The Poles, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are already dealing with asymmetrical border incursions via Belarus. Russia effectively neutralized them re actions to participate in defense of Ukraine.
It’s a nasty world out there and every Nation is ultimately on it’s own. The fact is a border incursion will likely look similar to Crimea and Georgia. ‘Separatist’ movements backed by Russian Tier 1/2 troops gain control of key infrastructure and Russia moves in troops to ‘stabilize’ the situation and the World huffs and puffs but that’s about all. Maybe sanctions but probably very limited in effect, duration and participation.
Would a stronger POTUS aka DJT v Biden have been enough of a deterrent? Probably so but that’s a strategic decision of timing more than anything. The Russians just wait out his term and when a weak President is installed then act on their long-standing ambitions to regain cold war territory and dominate the Black Sea and Eastern Europe.
This is an European problem just like Georgia and Crimea. If European Nations don’t want an expansionist Russia then they should invest funds away from their welfare system and into defense spending. Then demonstrate the political will to impose diplomatic and economic sanctions on Russia and if still undeterred deploy European troops.
I am all for assisting with diplomacy and economic sanctions, but the Nations of Europe must provide the lead in their own backyard. If they won’t even do that why should the US commit our troops? The days of the US policing the world is over. We should defend our strategic interests. Every other Nation should defend theirs. When they align we can cooperate. When they don’t, as in Ukraine, and where the European Nations refuse to act then why should they expect the US to do so in their place?
Prediction: Psaki says Russian invasion is caused by Global Warming and racism.
They have racist infrastructure.
> > Butthead told us.
So? China is planning an invasion of Taiwan.
Go back to sleep.
“Charlene!”
“Yes, Mr President?”
“Ukraine sounds familiar… is it where that ice cream I like comes from?”
“No, Mr. President. It’s where your son has that huge contract that you get 10% of.”
“Yikes! Charlene, get me Beau on the line, immediately!”
More proof – as if any were needed – of the uselessness of the UN
US out now!
US INTEL COMMUNITY – NOT VERY SHARP THESE DAYS
Why does it seem the US Intel always seems announce these revelations months after everyone already knows. Heck, you not have to be privy to the daily-briefing to realize Russia is gonna eventually deal with the Ukraine problem.
Russia launched their hyper-sonic missiles and signed a military cooperation treaty with China — all with in the same week. Clear signal to USA that they are going to make a strategic move and for USA to back-off – or else.
I think US Intel is more concerned with Diversity and using the proper pronouns than with protecting America’s interest.
PREDICTION – Russia will not just take DonBas – they will take over ALL of Ukraine. NATO will do NOTHING. USA will impose some meaningless sanctions.
Wildcard – will China go for Taiwan while the world is consume with Ukraine ? My guess – yes.
Wildcard 2 – will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon while the world is distracted by Ukraine? My guess – yes.
BIDEN’S TRIFECTA OF CATASTROPHE
If all these events unfold with nothing but sanctions as a penalty for China, Russia and Iran – it will greatly smear the USA in the eyes of the world.
I wonder if the Big Guy got his 10% UPFRONT or if he is getting it on the BACKEND (payoffs when he leaves office – like setting up a Clinton Foundation – err, Biden Foundation). Biden is the TRUE MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE.
One thing’s for sure, the American people are getting it in the backend.
The Axis of Evil (Russia/China/Iran) are going to be competing to get their individual atrocities accomplished in the next three years. Maybe they’ll have a meeting to work out a schedule. I’m fairly sure China would come out on the short end of that stick since so many in the upper ranks of Russia and Iran seem to have dropped over dead from Covid. Or at least they *say* it was Covid. There is no honor among thieves, only sharp knives.
I expect Russia and China to coordinate their attacks. Russia invades Ukraine at the same time China invades Taiwan.