Prof. Glenn Reynolds likes to say “Don’t Get Cocky” whenever polling shows a Republican leading. That’s good advice in the Virginia Governor’s race.
Virginia has been nearly hopeless for Republicans in recent years. Yet there is movement towards Republican Glenn Youngkin. The polling prior to today moved from advantage Terry McAuliffe to dead heat. Democrats were worried, flying in Obama and Biden to stump for McAuliffe.
But no matter what the polls say, McAuliffe may pull it out somehow over Glenn Youngkin. It’s Virginia. Northern Virginia might as well be Illinois or New York in its voting patterns. The federal bureaucrats and those to whom they funnel money loves them some Democrats.
BUT, something’s happening here.
Fox News just released a poll which shows a massive swing towards Youngkin, from McAuliffe being up 5 two weeks ago, to Youngkin up 8 in the latest polling:
Republican Glenn Youngkin has moved ahead of Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the Virginia governor’s race, less than a week before the election.McAuliffe receives 45 percent to Youngkin’s 53 percent in a new Fox News survey of Virginia likely voters. Youngkin’s eight-point advantage is outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.That’s a big shift from two weeks ago, when McAuliffe was ahead by five, 51-46 percent.
What’s driving this swing?
Well if you watch the news, you know that northern Virginia, the blue areas that always swing elections late at night to Democrats, also is the heart of the fight over schools. The student rape coverup in Loudoun County, together with intense Critical Race indoctrination, may have even Democrat voters sick to their stomachs.
It’s a point I’ve made numerous times. Parental rights and corrupted education is a cross-over issue. Parents of all political persuasions, and all races and ethnicities, are disgusted and infuriated.
Fox News polling found education was the key:
What changed? GOP enthusiasm. The race is largely focused on education and this has energized Republicans, as 79 percent of Youngkin supporters are “extremely” interested in the election compared to 69 percent of McAuliffe supporters….Youngkin promises to ban the teaching of critical race theory on his first day in office, while McAuliffe denies CRT is even taught in Virginia schools. In addition, McAuliffe is still explaining his comment in the final debate that parents shouldn’t “be telling schools what they should teach.”The survey, released Thursday, finds movement in the views of parents. They backed McAuliffe by 10 points two weeks ago. Now, they go for Youngkin by 14. On the question of which candidate they trust to handle education, Youngkin’s previous 1-point edge among parents has widened to 12.Among parents, Youngkin has dads to thank. Moms back him by just two points overall, and they trust both candidates equally on education. For dads, those numbers are +23 and +21 for Youngkin respectively.”Education is a top issue, which is usually good news for the Democrats since they are typically seen as more capable in that domain,” says Shaw. “But Youngkin has turned the issue on its head so it’s about curriculum and parent involvement rather than spending. The result is the GOP is currently preferred on perhaps the critical issue for this election.”Among all likely voters, trust on education moved from McAuliffe by two points to Youngkin by eight.
This chart maybe most important – among parents Youngkin is up by 14 points:
Something’s happening here. But I’ll believe it when I see it.
WaPo shows a dead heat but a YUGE swing on education:
From WaPo, with its usual crap take that CRT is “not actually” taught:
Youngkin is fueled by an 18-point advantage among independent likely voters, up from an eight-point advantage last month — a significant swing in a group that could determine the election’s outcome. While Virginia does not register voters by party, 33 percent of voters in the poll identified themselves as independents. That compares with 34 percent who said they consider themselves Democrats and 27 percent who said they are Republicans.The Post-Schar School poll, which was conducted Oct. 20-26, finds a larger share of voters saying education is the top issue in their vote compared with the September poll, with fewer citing the coronavirus as the biggest factor in their decision….Youngkin seems to have moved the needle in recent weeks by campaigning on issues related to schools, capitalizing on a national conservative movement of parental grievance. The Republican stokes up rallies by promising to ban the teaching of critical race theory, an academic concept about the history of racism that’s not actually on Virginia’s K-12 curriculum, and by warning that McAuliffe will ignore parental concerns about issues of gender and sexuality.Possibly as a result, education has risen to the top of the list of likely voters’ priorities, with 24 percent saying this is their top issue, up from 15 percent last month. Education now rivals the economy, which 23 percent of likely voters named as their most significant issue.Youngkin has gained significant ground among those voters: In September, education voters favored McAuliffe by 33 points, but now they tilt toward Youngkin by nine points.However, the same dynamic has not swayed support among parents of public school children, who remain about evenly split on which candidate they trust more to handle education. Parents are similarly split on which candidate they trust to manage schools’ teaching about racism.
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