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Biden’s Sinking Job Approval Portends Badly for Democrats in 2022

Biden’s Sinking Job Approval Portends Badly for Democrats in 2022

“A new Rasmussen poll finds 52% of voters want Biden to resign and 60% want him impeached”

The Afghanistan withdrawal was a disaster, but it may also have been the gush of water that broke the dam for Joe Biden and his party. Biden’s job approval is in free fall, and that is bad news for Democrats in 2022.

Republicans were already favored to take back the House, but the Senate is more in play with each passing day.

Sean Trende writes at Real Clear Politics:

Biden’s Job Approval Has Entered Dangerous Territory

The most important predictor of a party’s performance in a midterm is the president’s job approval rating. So, for example, the years where the president’s party has gained ground in the House during a midterm election have been years where the president has been exceptionally popular. The 1998 midterms occurred against the backdrop of a massive economic boom and an unpopular impeachment attempt from Republicans, while the 2002 midterms occurred while George W. Bush was still enjoying his post-9/11 bounce. Both presidents enjoyed approval ratings in the mid-60s on Election Day.

While we don’t have polling data for FDR in 1934, one can imagine that his job approval was likely well into the 70s. One the other hand, abysmal elections for parties in power have occurred when the president was generally unpopular: Witness 1994, 2010, and 2018. Thus, the trend in President Biden’s job approval has to be concerning for Democrats:

Let’s look at the implications of this, first through the lens of Senate elections, then through the lens of House elections. I’ve explored Senate elections in this article. As the chart near the bottom indicates, when Biden was hovering around 52% job approval, Democrats were heavily favored to maintain control of the Senate. The most likely outcome for the party was that it would actually gain a seat.

But Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate were slated to drop off quickly if the president’s job approval fell any further. At 50%, they would be expected to break even, but would lose control about one time out of four. At 49% job approval, the Senate is considered 50-50.

At 46%? Democrats would lose between four and zero seats 95% of the time, with an expected outcome of two seats. They only retain control about 4% of the time. This is obviously an outcome Democrats would like to avoid.

You can almost hear the sound of a car crash here (via RCP):

In the new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, Biden has dropped six points in a month:

– Biden’s approval rating (43%) dropped six percentage points from our August poll (49%), driven by softening support among Democrats (down five points) and independents (down ten points).

– Americans who strongly disapprove of Biden’s performance jumped from 30% in August to 41% in this poll.

A new Rasmussen poll finds 52% of voters want Biden to resign and 60% want him impeached:

The worst part for Biden and Democrats is that the crisis in Afghanistan is ongoing. They are better armed than they were when we went in in 2001, and there are hundreds of Americans still trapped there. It’s scary to think of what could happen.

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Comments

Abortion could turn voters away from republicans pretty fast though. Texas is a bad portent for what republicans would do if they got in. Voting democrat for protection from it is likely.

    caseoftheblues in reply to rhhardin. | September 3, 2021 at 8:00 am

    Except you are missing the fact most Americans are pro life…
    And what exactly have the Dems done that isn’t literally causing most Americans to be absolutely terrified of their future!?! Every single thing they have done is wrecking absolute destruction….but yah…stick with…’I’m going to vote for the lunatic communist America hating Democrat who is destroying America and views US citizens with contempt because I’m upset some woman may have to kill her baby sooner”…geesh

      TX did not ban abortion. It just put significant limitations on it.
      Most Americans are fine with limitations.
      Few Americans want abortion with no limits -even up to day of birth.
      > Infanticide is not a winning policy – but some Dems still push for it.

        rhhardin in reply to Ben Kent. | September 3, 2021 at 2:37 pm

        They did two things, worst of all finding a structural flaw in the legal system that the supreme court apparently doesn’t know how to avoid, so it’s open season on any constitutional right at all until they do.

        Second, the time limit is way too short. If you have irregular periods you won’t know your pregnant in time.

        Also bad naming, it’s not a heartbeat. There’s no heart. I wrote a time sharing system once that had what everybody called a heartbeat once a second when the panel lights flashed bright as it looked for something to do. It only needed a law against turning it off.

      Richard Epstein podcast just out

      “My guess is that people will vote their political predeliction and if they overturn Roe it will hurt the Republical cause in the political situation because it will take people who are relatively conservative market oriented on economic affairs and more liberal on social affairs like abortion and force them to choose between their two principles and most people will vote their moral principles before their economic principles so I think it will be a rough time for Republicans under these circumstances.”

      https://www.hoover.org/research/did-texas-just-find-new-way-ban-abortion

    Sure. The American economy is in free fall, the southern border is in chaos with thousands of Wuflu-infected illegals and MS-13 gangsters being bused all over the country at taxpayer expense every day, inflation is soaring, the Taliban are back in power with almost $100B in free military equipment gifted to them by the Biden* junta, hundreds of American citizens are now Taliban hostages in Afghanistan, major American cities are killing zones thanks to “defund the police”, the violent domestic terrorist groups BLM and Antifa enjoy quasi-legal status and government protection in deep-blue hellholes like Portland, the neo-Nazi CRT is being forced onto tens of thousands of schoolchildren, the voting systems in blue cities and states is a Third World joke – nope, none of those issues matter more to Americans than protecting the right to grind human babies into hamburger.

      All they have to do is put lipstick on it an call it an historic success like they did for Afghanistan withdrawal.

      If the American people keep Democrats in under such conditions, they deserve what they get. I’ll believe the GOP or conservative independents have a chance when my deep indigo and dreadfully gerrymandered state throws out most of its Congressional delegation and both Senators.

        I find your (and the article writer’s) naive belief that the elections will be honest enough to matter amusing….. if you’re three years old.

    Just ask Gov. Wendy Davis.

    sheldonkatz in reply to rhhardin. | September 3, 2021 at 10:13 am

    Yes protecting the vulnerable is a bad look for Republicans and protecting murderers will catapult Democrats to massive victory. Is that what you’re saying?

    If you think the average American is “ok” with sucking the brains out of viable, human babies, and then going around “tweeting” and “shouting” your abortion, then you are moronic fucking lunatic, like the rest of the proggies. Fuck off, baby killer.

    geronl in reply to rhhardin. | September 3, 2021 at 12:58 pm

    Half of women are pro-life.

    Fat_Freddys_Cat in reply to rhhardin. | September 3, 2021 at 1:19 pm

    The people most likely to vote Democrat solely to “protect” abortion are already Democrat voters. And I think the swing voters who are swamped with all of the Democrats’ disasters are not going to forget all that just because Texas restricts abortions.

    Normal people don’t base their votes on any one issue. You’re dreaming if you think a law that provides weak protection for babies who are detectably alive is going to switch a significant numbers of votes.

    thetaqjr in reply to rhhardin. | September 3, 2021 at 11:08 pm

    RH, you are a real son of a bitch. Stealing ice cream combs from young octogenarians and fucking free speech.

    How do you live with yourself? How do you live at all?

But, but…..what about Biden’s “historic airlift?”

Yeah, “historic” for leaving Americans, SIV’s, etc.

Doctor-Elect Disco Stu_ | September 3, 2021 at 9:06 am

I fear for multiple dramatic & violent actions in “celebration” of the upcoming September 11th anniversary – here in our great nation, in Afghanistan, and elsewhere in the world where Americans can be targeted.

This nation’s “leaders” SHOULD be protecting Americans against such events. Regardless, we should all be vigilant in protecting ourselves and our families.

I do NOT want such actions to occur. But if they do, I can imagine even the more-dense voters may finally turn away in horror against these evil + incompetent Democrats.

“Biden’s job approval is in free fall, and that is bad news for Democrats in 2022.”

CNN reports an emergency order has just been submitted for 50 million more absentee ballots. China’s xi jinping said he will get on it right away.

I’m not surprised at the drop in approval rating I’m surprised that his approval rating is that high. 43% of Americans think he’s doing a good job! That is unbelievable!

    Ben Kent in reply to scaulen. | September 3, 2021 at 10:55 am

    Either –

    A. We live in a country where 43% are complete morons; or,

    B. The pollsters are manipulating polls to try to show more support for Biden.
    _____

    I do not believe polls anymore because the media play so many games.

    My guess is that the true support for Biden is less than 12%.

    JHogan in reply to scaulen. | September 3, 2021 at 11:23 am

    IIRC, even after the fall of the Soviet Union about 35-40% of the population longed for a return to the good old days of communist rule.

    Biden’s ‘approval’ rating may never fall below 40%.

    Trump Derangement Syndrome is an incurable illness.

Democrats will just mobilize their cheating game. Watch for some of the most corrupt Senate races since, well the last time Democrats ran.

Biden has become in very short order, a turd in the Democrat Party punchbowl.

Bye bye Biden.

Assuming free and fair elections.

Let’s see what happens, if anything, after the Maricopa audit report is released. Let’s see if the GOPe ignores it.

Don’t worry…they will just manufacture a crisis with the help of the media and have Joe come to the rescue and bravely solve this fake crisis just in time for midterms!

“Republicans were already favored to take back the House, but the Senate is more in play with each passing day.”

I’m still of the opinion that the easiest way to take back the Senate is to promote Kamala out of the tiebreaker chair and into the Oval Office. It’s not like the people puppeting Biden will suddenly get more competent just because the puppet changes, and anything she does on her own initiative is almost guaranteed to be even less competent than they are.

Hey Dems, you gonna need a bigger fraud than 2020.

    CommoChief in reply to stl. | September 3, 2021 at 5:23 pm

    Or a different one. Hopefully enough folks are wise to the multiple ways the 2020 election was impacted and will be alert for a repeat in their communities.

You borrowed that Hand job title from Fifth Column.

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