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Democrats Betting Big On Early Voting But May Be Overplaying Their Hand

Democrats Betting Big On Early Voting But May Be Overplaying Their Hand

“Just because registered Democrats are leading Republicans in early voting, that does not mean the Republicans will not make up ground on Election Day”

https://youtu.be/egKFCHn0GQE

Democrats are heavily pushing and engaging in early voting this year. It’s clearly part of a strategy to create a sense of inevitability for Joe Biden.

It didn’t take off as quickly as Democrats planned, but they have made some gains. Even so, Republicans and Trump supporters are keeping pace in some places.

Ronn Blitzer and Audrey Conklin report at FOX News:

2020 presidential election ballots cast so far

Many Americans are voting early in the 2020 presidential election amid concerns regarding the coronavirus pandemic and U.S. Postal Service timing.

More than 56 million total ballots cast as of Saturday morning suggests a record turnout for this year’s race compared to the 5.9 million ballots that were cast at a similar time in 2016, according to data from the United States Elections Project.

That number of early ballots cast so far represents 39.4% of the total national voter turnout in 2016, and the total number of ballots cast includes 37.8 million mail-in ballots and 16.3 million in-person ballots.

“The pace has dropped,” said Elections Project founder and University of Florida political science professor Michael McDonald in an Oct. 18 blog post on the project website, “because last week the early vote ran about six-and-a-half times at the same point in 2016, whereas this week it is only a little less than five times the comparable 2016 point.”

This is the part you’ll hear repeated by the liberal media:

Democrats have requested 23.4 million ballots while Republicans have requested 13.3 million — about a 10 million ballot request lead based on data from states reporting party registration including California, Colorado, the District of Columbia, Flordia, Iowa, Maryland, Maine, North Carolina, New Jersey, Nevada, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Utah.

This is the fine print:

“Just because registered Democrats are leading Republicans in early voting, that does not mean the Republicans will not make up ground on Election Day,” McDonald wrote, adding that “registered Democrats typically lead Republicans during early voting, and Republicans vote on Election Day, a pattern that persists across many states and elections.”

Interestingly enough, BuzzFeed of all places, is taking a fairly sober approach on the issue. Caroline O’Donovan and Julia Reinstein report:

Don’t Assume That Lots Of Early Voting Means Joe Biden Is A Lock

All across Georgia since Oct. 12, voters have been standing in long lines. Many have brought folding chairs and snacks, knowing they may have to wait for three, six, or even eleven hours before it’s their turn to vote in the presidential election.

As of Wednesday, more than 1.9 million Georgians — an early voting record for the state — had already cast a ballot, with more than 1.2 million of those having been cast in person. Records were also smashed in Florida, where more than 350,000 people participated in the first day of early voting, and in Texas where some 60% of the entire 2016 vote has already been cast…

Republicans in Texas are already closing the gap created by the Democrats’ early lead. As of Wednesday evening, voters with a Republican voting history had narrowly cast more ballots in person than the Democrats — 31.2% of early votes to their 27.5%, according to analysis by Republican consultant Derek Ryan, who runs Texas political research firm Ryan Data.

In the key state of Florida, Democrats are ahead but Republicans are catching up fast.

Allison Ross and Juan Carlos Chavez report at The Tampa Bay Times:

Florida Republicans surge ahead with in-person early voting

Florida Republicans’ preference for in-person voting this election is becoming more apparent after only four days of early voting.

Through Thursday, more than 640,000 Republicans statewide had cast ballots in person, according to data from the Florida Division of Elections. That’s 140,000 more in-person votes than Democrats have cast.

Democrats hold a 570,000-vote advantage in returned mail ballots so far, with 1.61 million to Republicans’ 1.04 million. At this point, Democrats still hold a commanding lead in the total number of votes cast, although that lead is likely to shrink considerably as Nov. 3 nears.

Expect the media to talk about huge early voting numbers for Democrats all of this coming week. It’s meant to be discouraging for Trump voters.

At this point, there are so many factors at play that it’s very difficult to know which way this is going.

Keep calm, carry on, and vote.

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Comments

Early voting is typically done by voters who made their mind up back in the spring – ie loyal party members.

Swing voters wait until its late to make a final decision. Those are the independents and the non-engaged voters.

    2smartforlibs in reply to Joe-dallas. | October 25, 2020 at 10:17 am

    Normally your correct, this however is a base lection.

    AF_Chief_Master_Sgt in reply to Joe-dallas. | October 25, 2020 at 7:32 pm

    @Joe-Dallas. Puh-leeze!!!

    You act as if Independent voters have no idea who they will vote for, and make their decision micro-seconds before entering the booth. Thanks for the insult.

    You are as bad as the left wing asshats. Full of Schiff.

    I have been an Independent voter since I first voted for Reagan. I chose to not join any of the political plantations. Mainly because pompous asshats like you.

    Yes, I am throwing insults at you because you deserve to be insulted.

    Although I have never become a slave to the Republican Party, like you, I have reliably voted for Republicans until 2016, when I voted for Trump.

    The Independents that I know from 30 years of military service (and there are many) are reliably conservative, but also didn’t become a slave to a party.

    All of us know who we will vote for long before Election Day, so you can rest assured that Independents aren’t feathers floating in the wind waiting for the breeze to drop us Willy-Nilly into the hands of Marxists.

    To close. Don’t be an ass.

With the events of the past week, I think there are now a few other factors in play, besides how the whole Biden family scandals saga continues to play out this week. Sure, they may not amount to much in the grand scheme of things but they could wind up meaning something:

1) How many people who were going to vote Biden/Harris and were planning to vote in person this week or by mail and are now either going not bother voting at all, leave that section blank, write in someone else, or hold their nose and vote Trump;

2) How many people publicly tell friends and family they regret having voting early and if they had the chance they would change their ballots; and

3) How much Chelsea Handler’s comments stay in the news and get spread around social media.

I just ran into someone that was sure Joe 30330 had this won. I told them o back their argument. “Well, he’s going get 370 electoral votes.” I asked from where. That ended it.

The real issue is whether Biden can c!ose a gap with after-election “voting”. That assured Dem saying Biden has 370 speaks of a time in future if Dems covert USA into Venezuela or Cuba. Biden not catching his ” fraud” line is doubly telling of his mind and Dem plans.

    henrybowman in reply to alaskabob. | October 25, 2020 at 6:50 pm

    I don’t understand all the foofaraw over Biden’s “most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics” line. Obviously, Biden forgot to specify “addressing.” People who didn’t like Biden heard “committing.”

    This is exactly analogous to Trump’s line, while he was speaking on the subject of using UV light to combat China Flu, that it would be even better to “inject it into the body” to disinfect it (e.g., fiber optic catheters or whatever), and people who didn’t like Trump heard “shoot up with Lysol.”

Thought never crossed my mind to vote other than election day and in person. Been thinking I would waltz in and out in minutes as of old even though here have gone from electronic to paper and pen now. But maybe not after all.

“Just because registered Democrats are leading Republicans in early voting, that does not mean the Republicans will not make up ground on Election Day”

More than this. Just because registered Democrats are leading Republicans in early voting, that does not mean they’re voting Democrat. Many registered Democrats regularly vote Republican, and many who regularly vote Democrat are voting Republican this time.

    Joe-dallas in reply to Milhouse. | October 25, 2020 at 12:00 pm

    I live in Dallas county Texas which has become fairly solid Democrat in all the county positions up for election.

    I therefore vote exclusively in the Dem primary (unless there is a contested Republican race I care about). I vote for the least bad person in the democrat primary to reduce the potential damage. I may be a registered Democrat by now.

    I have voted solid republican since Ford, (my first election to vote). Until the Democrat party rejects socialism and rejects racism, I will continue to vote Republican.

    persecutor in reply to Milhouse. | October 25, 2020 at 12:09 pm

    Also, let’s not forget that in typical “landslide” elections, you need a sizable cross-over vote from the opposing party. With the prediction of a heavy black turnout for Trump, along with a sizable Hispanic and Asian bloc to him, add to that Democrats who are voting for their pocketbooks and I wouldn’t bet the farm that the early Dem voting favors Biteme and Kamaltoes.
    I’m not predicting a repeat of Nixon/McGovern in ’72 (Nixon got 49 States) or Reagan/Mondale, but this is going to be interesting.
    Oh, and let’s not forget that many college towns don’t have the college student precincts whipped up for Joey.

    DanJ1 in reply to Milhouse. | October 25, 2020 at 12:44 pm

    This is exactly my point as well. A lot of Dems are patriots too, and recognize the Socialist movement of the party by legitimizing AOC, Omar, Talib, Bernie and the rest of them and will vote for Trump at the top of the ticket and then take the down ticket votes locally. This may not be a general statement, but the numbers switching at the top of the ballot to Trump can be small but significant. i.e. Just a small shift of 2% of the Black vote would make it impossible for Biden to win.

    Personally, I think that everyone that voted already could have voted in June. Nothing would have changed their votes. It’s the Independent voters and the switching Dems that will wait to the last minute.

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to Milhouse. | October 25, 2020 at 12:58 pm

    Hear.

    Hear.

    Mac45 in reply to Milhouse. | October 25, 2020 at 1:28 pm

    Most importantly, these “studies” ignore the NPAs [No Party Affiliation}; the old independents. As little as 15 years ago, the NPAs only comprised about 10% of the voter population. Now, in many states, such as Florida, they comprise 30-35% of the registered voters. And, a significant portion of them are Republican conservatives. Then you have similar former Democrats and those who just do not want to be pre-affiliated with any part of the system. And, traditionally, NPAs tend to vote late.

    But, all of this has to be taken with a huge grain of salt. Historical political trends no longer apply, in today’s political arena. The days of Republican v Democrat and Liberal v Conservative are gone. They died following the 2012 elections. Now we have the Progressive Establishment v The People. 50% of the nation voted anti-Establishment in 2016 and elected Donald Trump. And the Establishment knows this.

    So, the Establishment has a short term advantage, by virtue of controlling almost all of the official power structure in the country. And, it will use that control to lie, cheat and steal its way into continuing to hold that power. The People hold the long term power, in that they can revert to the original social contract as spelled out in the Declaration of Independence. How this will ultimately play out is still in quite about of doubt. And, it does not signal smooth sailing for the nation in the immediate future.

      Barry in reply to Mac45. | October 25, 2020 at 10:28 pm

      “And, it does not signal smooth sailing for the nation in the immediate future.”

      A bit of understatement 🙂

      I’m not sure it’s possible to vote our way out of this mess.

Possible scenarios:

1. Biden wins, then the Democrats let his bribery and other crimes into the news. Kamala becomes president because her worst known crime is prostitution.

2. Trump wins, but does not have an un-erasable lead in votes. The Democrats manufacture as many post-election votes as they can. If it doesn’t work, they drag out the process until January and hope that Nancy Pelosi becomes president by default.

3. Trump wins by a landslide. Democrats reject it because Orange Man Bad and “Russia!” The American people will not be allowed to choose their own president. Cities burn at the hands of BLM and Antifa terrorists who are enabled by traitors in government. The riots give cover for a violent deep-state coup, a desperate roll of the dice by America’s enemies. Outcome uncertain, but if Trump wins and the traitors still escape punishment, it’s over anyway.

    I like to take that another step and have a Nixon, Agnew, Ford scenario that puts Pelosi behind the Resolute Desk.

    Sorry. You can’t unread that no matter how ugly.

    henrybowman in reply to Dantzig93101. | October 25, 2020 at 6:56 pm

    “Trump wins by a landslide. Democrats reject it because Orange Man Bad and “Russia!” The American people will not be allowed to choose their own president. Cities burn at the hands of BLM and Antifa terrorists who are enabled by traitors in government.”

    And at this point, forces never seen before appear on the field to oppose them. And they’ve been itching for action for the past year. And they don’t take orders from Commie mayors.

What a load. Everything we’re fed is utter drivel.

“Just because registered Democrats are leading Republicans in early voting, that does not mean the Republicans will not make up ground on Election Day”

Ahhh, leading in what? Ballots in envelopes mean nothing until they’re opened and the votes counted. What the envelope says on the outside has nothing remotely to do with it.

So far, the vote is ZERO to ZERO no matter how many ballots the Post Office has thrown in ditches or dumpsters.

I’ve been voting since forever and I have never voted for the candidate running under my “party affiliation”. This is just basic Secret Ballot 101. My only recorded “vote” so far in 2020 was requesting a Dem ballot in the primary so that I could vote for anyone who wasn’t Ed Markey. Only a pollster would be wacky enough to think that implies anything else, like that I would consider voting for a Dem on Nov 3.

I suppose this nonsense of ascribing mystical powers to mere envelopes is better than the way they used to do it, as that involved animal entrails, and the PETA people would “pounce” for sure. But it has no other virtues.

    I assume they’re judging based on one of two possible metrics: either the party affiliations of early voters (in states where election officials know this), or the aggregate past voting behavior of people in the counties where early voting has been recorded.

    In my state, election officials don’t know the party affiliations of individual voters, but they do know that the county I live in tends to vote more Republican than the state’s already very Republican average. They’ll also know that about counties that vote more Democrat.

    But again, as Millhouse points out, just because people in certain counties are voting early at high numbers, doesn’t mean the people casting those early votes are necessarily voting in line with past outcomes.

      tom_swift in reply to McGehee. | October 25, 2020 at 12:39 pm

      In my state, election officials don’t know the party affiliations of individual voters, but they do know that the county I live in tends to vote more Republican than the state’s already very Republican average. They’ll also know that about counties that vote more Democrat.

      And those predictions can be offered at any time. No need to wait and pretend that it has something to do with counting envelopes. Counting envelopes is a way to give an imaginary gravitas to an ordinary guess, and is just a plain old con.

    tiger66 in reply to tom_swift. | October 25, 2020 at 12:53 pm

    Worth logging in to give thumb’s up

    mochajava76 in reply to tom_swift. | October 25, 2020 at 2:32 pm

    Didn’t know you were a fellow conservative living in exile in MA.

    This state would vote for Kennedy if they could dig him up and put him on the ballot.

caseoftheblues | October 25, 2020 at 11:21 am

After last debate one of most highly searched phrases …can I change my vote/how to change my vote. State most searched in PA

It’s impossible to even know this much for sure in VA (no party registration), but I have seen a *lot* of overt Trump voters the last 5 weeks of early voting at my polling station (I’m an election officer in a national bellwether city), and we’ve administered over 11,000 votes to date at my (1 of 7) station.

I’d be delighted if Trump manages to win, but I am pessimistic. The Ds will steal Pennsylvania, which already has a long history of vote fraud.

I say that as someone who favors mail-in voting, having done it for almost 25 years in WA State. But the basic verification procedures are not in place in PA. No signature verification, no postmark requirement. Sorry kids, but it’s a joke. I wonder if they even have the OCR machines to count the ballots.

Trust me, if Trump pulls that one out anyway, I will stand and cheer. It will mean that he won BIG, and that would shock me. Pleasantly, but I very much doubt it will happen.

    TheOldZombie in reply to RandomCrank. | October 25, 2020 at 1:57 pm

    I’m worried about the fraud too but I think the election is turning in Trump’s favor that he’s going to win by such a large margin and PA won’t matter.

      RandomCrank in reply to TheOldZombie. | October 25, 2020 at 5:28 pm

      Our respective opinions plus $3 buy an overpriced cup of coffee at Starbucks. I say that, but for the mail-in fraud, Trump would have a fighting chance at re-election. But I will be shocked — pleasantly, but still shocked — if he wins this year. I think the fix is in.

Early or same-day aren’t the question, it will be the flood of votes coming in after the polls that close which could turn the tide.

No postmark? No problem!
Signature doesn’t match? So what!
Oh look! Here’s this box in the trunk of the car that got missed!

Afterall, they’ve put together an “extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization”.

#IfItsNotCloseTheyCantCheat

Massive, in your face, fraud being reported in Detroit, where thugs won’t let election officials in the counting rooms, Houston where as many as 100,000 fraudulent votes were reported as created prior to early voting with the mayor in charge of the fraud, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

    RandomCrank in reply to puhiawa. | October 25, 2020 at 5:29 pm

    Got any links? I’m genuinely interested.

    txvet2 in reply to puhiawa. | October 25, 2020 at 8:19 pm

    I’m still not concerned about anecdotes like this. If we know about them, so does the SoS’s office. In another story, someone claimed that many Texas counties had more voters registered than there were eligible adults – but I noted that they were using population numbers that were badly outdated, and didn’t take into account the ridiculously high growth rate of many of the counties listed – such as mine and several around it.

I read an article recently that said #canIchangemyvote has been trending–maybe the October surprise is having some effect–and I am encouraged by the number of Trump car parades–a huge one in New York and large rallies in Beverly Hills–even though those states are blue, there are still substantial amounts of support there

Rush said vote in person on election day and that’s what we are doing (it’s what we usually do anyway) hope the election does note get stolen from us due to fraud

SeekingRationalThought | October 26, 2020 at 10:22 am

It will be interesting to see how many of these registered Democrat voters end up voting for Trump.

I’m amused by this piece still up on the top page at Power Line.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/10/why-you-shouldnt-vote-early.php

The only people I’ve heard talking about regretting their vote are people who were silly enough to vote for Biden. They’re the ones who want to change their votes AND they’re the ones who are stupid enough to think they can change their votes.

Let’s face it; if you’re voting for the head of the Biden crime family, whose plan to deal with the Kung Flu after he’s sworn in on January 20th 2021 is a plagiarized, Cliff’s Notes version of what Trump already did in February/March 2020, then you deserve to not have your vote count.

I voted early and I don’t regret. Straight GOP ticket, then a few minor school board candidates, then a resounding “NO!” on some bond issues that were supposed to fund something or other for the public school system.

Anyone who knows TX knows our property taxes are already too high, and most of the tax $$$ already goes to the school districts. I’m from Kali, where the elderly on fixed incomes were forced to eat dog food while on the inevitable trajectory to being forced to sell their homes. Until Prop 13 passed and provided what was supposed to be permanent tax relief. Until the Marxists and Villistas who comprise the Kali Democratic party passed the Mello-Roos act which is a property tax in all but name. Bastards.

Bond issues are part and parcel of how states like Kali, Illinois, and New York circle the bowl before they flush their economies and credit ratings once and for all. I never vote for bond issues since taxpayers are ultimately on the hook to pay off bond holders. I’m never tempted to vote for bond issues; all I have to do is pass by the $60M stadium (the Jumbotron or whatever scoreboard alone cost $1.3M) which was falling apart and had to be repaired for many more millions two years after it opened. That’s how crooks everywhere spend money when it’s someone else’s.

Or I just have to watch the vids of the dumbed-down products of the leftist-run “Amerikkkan ejukayshun” system burn down and and vandalize cities and towns from Portland OR to Rochester NY to know I don’t want what I’m paying for already.

The $60M stadium is in Allen here in N. Texas.

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