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New CNN Poll: Presidential Race Tightens, Biden Up By Only 4%

New CNN Poll: Presidential Race Tightens, Biden Up By Only 4%

That’s a drop of 10% for Biden lead in the last month, and in battleground states, it’s essentially a dead heat with Biden up by 1%

okay to use - waj - multiple screengrabs

A CNN poll conducted by SSRS released this morning has Democrats freaking out, showing that Joe Biden’s national lead has narrowed by 10% in the past month, and now is down to 4%. And that’s among “registered voters” not “likely voters” so enthusiasm for Trump, which has exceeded Biden in most polls, isn’t a factor.

Time will tell if it’s an outlier, but it is CNN so people can’t claim Trump rigged the poll. A WaPo-ABC poll, also of registered voters, also released this morning shows Biden maintaining an 11% lead.

Here are some topline findings from the CNN poll summarized by PoliticalPolls twitter account:

Very significantly, race is essentially a dead heat in battleground stated:

And Trump is surging among non-white voters:

One more interesting finding. There’s someone who’s never heard of Trump:

Democrats are getting worried:

How to make sense of CNN and WaPo/ABC being so far apart? First explanation: Polls of registered voters are basically garbage, particularly at this point. Second explanation, no one really knows what the situatoin is — it’s likely Biden has a lead, but it’s nothing like the double- or high-single digit lead used to demoralize Trump supporters.

Verdict: Hillary Clinton is still not president.


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    CorkyAgain in reply to Rab. | August 17, 2020 at 5:50 pm

    I’ll admit that when I was a naive youth I voted (D).

    But that was then and this is now.

    So make mine #NeverDemocratAgain

casualobserver | August 17, 2020 at 9:36 am

Expect to see much more of Pelosi and Schumer in front of compliant cameras and microphones yapping about Trump trying to steal the election — yada yada yada Post Office yada yada yada. Declining polls make voting by mail even more existentially critical for the Dems.

    The Friendly Grizzly in reply to casualobserver. | August 17, 2020 at 10:08 am

    For all the sniveling about the Post Office, I have two FedEx parcels due for Sunday delivery according to their app, but now who as “label printed and submitted to FedEx”.

      Fedex service has deteriorated significantly over the past few months, especially when they turn parcels over to the PO for last mile delivery. It’s taking literally a week to move a parcel from Dallas Metro to my house – via Houston.

      That phrase signifies “the shipper indicated he would be submitting the package on such and such a date, but we have yet to even see it.” You want to take this up with your shipper, not with FedEx.

What this means is that the sponsors of these polls now recognize that they can no longer get away with the distortions designed to influence voters. Anyone who believes in these polls after 2016 also believes that Hillary is always truthful.

2smartforlibs | August 17, 2020 at 9:44 am

Boys and girls this happens every cycle. These polls shape opinions not reflect it. The problem is when you get closer the polls have to get closer as well or the credibility for next cycle is lost. We are no entering that phase.

    JusticeDelivered in reply to 2smartforlibs. | August 17, 2020 at 10:11 am

    Those polls attempt to drive herd mentality. An implied vote Democrat, because we say everyone else is doing so.

    I contend that Dems embracing so much stuff which goes far past liberal, all the way to Marxism, resulting in many Dems deserting the party.

      CorkyAgain in reply to JusticeDelivered. | August 17, 2020 at 5:55 pm

      I suspect they’re also concerned that constantly showing Biden with a double-digit lead might suppress some of their own voter turnout, as many people might conclude the issue is already decided and their vote isn’t necessary.

      So now they’re showing the race tightening up and “every vote matters!”

    MattMusson in reply to 2smartforlibs. | August 17, 2020 at 11:31 am

    A Trump victory is dependent upon his campaigns ability to push Reality into the psyche of that segment of the American voters who distrust the Media Narrative. (Think about what I just said.)

    The Good News is that there are a lot of people who distrust the Media and the Truth has an inherent gravitas that is discernable when contrasted with a phony narrative.

“That 46% think Trump deserves a second term is…disturbing”

Not really. After a nadir on April 1, my 401(k) is almost exactly the same as it was at the end of 2019, the economy is recovering, the Iranians are being pushed away from the civilized nations, peace advances between Israel and its neighbors. What problems?

    The Friendly Grizzly in reply to DSHornet. | August 17, 2020 at 10:09 am

    And in more good news, troops are being moved from Germany to a country that actually wants us there.

      Yes. But, they are still stationed as a trip wire force between Germany and Russia

      We will be right where the German government wants us: on the border of the Old Soviet Union, still protecting them, and out of their hair.

      US servicemen and their families will be less available to see and sense what the EU is trying to cram down the locals’ throats.

      For Merkel and the rest of the EU totalitarians, it’s a great move by the US.

        hopeful in reply to Valerie. | August 17, 2020 at 8:35 pm

        Can’t agree this is what Merkel wants. Those US troops put a lot of good old greenbacks into the German economy. now removed. Has to pinch, especially considering any multiplier effect.

        Plus it diminishes her. Trump is the Centurian– I say and they do. Not she. I’d say he sucked a little Serotonin out of her.

The purpose of this poll is to enable media swooning over the post-convention Biden bump.

On Thursday night we get to see Joe.

Perhaps we’ll get a replay like this (but they’ll likely dope him up to the max),

With the obvious total lack of enthusiasm for Biden/Harris, the Dems need to get their vote out. A poll with Biden up 10%+ isn’t going to do that.

    Valerie in reply to markymark. | August 17, 2020 at 11:54 am

    No they don’t. All they need is uncontrolled vote-by-mail, with no verified ballots and vote harvesting. That’s why Nancy wants the Dems back in DC this week.

    We really need auditable counts this time.

BierceAmbrose | August 17, 2020 at 11:05 am

“…46% think Trump deserves a second term…”

At least 46% are telling you tbat they think hes’s the less bad choice.

BierceAmbrose | August 17, 2020 at 11:15 am

Some will vote for Trump because they’re in favor.

Some will vote for Trump because they’re against the other guys.

Some will vote for Trump because watching those other guys loose again to a short-fingered vulgarian will be even better than the last time. (And they gotta know, they’re the ones getting him elected just like last time.)

Somehow everything the Screaming D’s do strengthens all three reasons to vote Trump. How do they do that? /moar popcorn.

    hopeful in reply to BierceAmbrose. | August 17, 2020 at 8:43 pm

    And some will vote for Trump because he’s loose, funny, strong, persistent and always figures out a way over, around or under obstacles. As Churchill said “It’s the courage to continue that counts”. Trump has that to the Nth, AND he makes me laugh. I’m voting for him because I appreciate his many virtues, and even some of his “flaws”

BierceAmbrose | August 17, 2020 at 11:18 am

Counterprogramming, commenting nightly on the convention day’s festivities — genius.

A lot of the electorate isn’t really paying much attention.
Without real conventions they pay even less.

I keep trying to imagine some of them when they find out that the Democrats are selling a defective candidate.

I spent most of my life waiting for the conventions before bothering to tune in, because the commercials were so irritating, and because there was no real issue before me, until I knew who the candidates would be.

I still do not believe Joe Biden will be the candidate, although I suppose the selection of the flouncing Kamala Harris makes it look more plausible.

In normal circumstances the party and candidates get a bounce during and in the days following the convention. Obviously this year isn’t normal. The coverage during a convention is normally a bit less adversarial. The MSM allow the party message about their platform to be presented before they begin asking tough questions.

Biden hasn’t had any real media scrutiny nor even exposure to one on one or a true press conference in months. How will the basement strategy play out? IMO, Biden is going to be forced into actual debate and answering media questions. He will not perform well, if his limited performances are a guide.

Polls will continue to tighten. Eventually polls will be of likely voters. Once that happens add 3 points minimum to Trump, IMO.

“Polls of registered voters are basically garbage, particularly at this point.”

Polls of registered voters, like polls of all adults, are garbage at ANY point. The demographic makeup of those polls are based upon who pollsters think exist. Polls of likely voters are based upon (in part) on who actually shows up to vote. Polls of registered voters and all adults are by definition unfalsifiable.

Don’t believe the usual explanation for the discrepancy that Republican-leaning voters are more likely to vote than non-Republican ones. There is no scientific data to back up that claim.

Maxine Waters is talking 25th Amendment again.

Maxine is stupider than stupid does.

    hopeful in reply to Neo. | August 17, 2020 at 8:46 pm

    And her face has cemented into a nasty, hateful mask. She’s probably killing herself with whatever did that to her face.

    Milhouse in reply to Neo. | August 18, 2020 at 12:10 am

    Yes, any talk of the 25th amendment being used against Trump is just stupid. Using the 25th amendment against the president’s will is harder than removing him by impeachment. To impeach and remove a president you need a majority in the House and two thirds of the Senate. If you have that you vote, and he’s gone; if you don’t, he stays. To remove a protesting president by the 25th amendment you need (1) the vice president; (2) a majority of the president’s own hand-picked cabinet; (3) two thirds of the House; and (4) two thirds of the Senate. One would have to be very very bad at arithmetic not to see the problem here.

    If the 25th is going to be used in the foreseeable future, it will be against Biden. If he carries on till the election, wins, and the DNC allows him to continue to inauguration, the time will quickly come when he simply has to go. If he’s still more or less functioning, and recognizes the situation, he can resign; but if he’s in a coma or babbling he won’t be able to resign, and there’s also the possibility that he will refuse to recognize the need. That’s the situation the 25th is designed for.

I seriously doubt Biden is up by anything. Many of us just don’t share who we intend to vote for.

Remember the polls that had the Hildebeast winning in a landslide into the early evening election night.

How is she not in prison?

That 46% think Trump deserves a second term is…disturbing

It’s a lot more than 46%, cupcake.

“it’s likely Biden has a lead”

I think it unlikely as hell that the half wit is in the lead.

To believe that Biden is ahead in the Presidential race, you have to believe the the majority of registered Democrats are in favor of where the Democrat leadership is taking the country and that the support the riots that the Democrat leadership refuses to speak against.

This election is looking a lot like 1968.

barbiegirl ny | August 18, 2020 at 5:53 pm

Take nothing for granted. The hell with the polls. Get out and vote, those are the numbers that matter. Let’s not forget what the polls told us in 2016. They’re quite unreliable, to say the least.