Unless one candidate wins by a margin outside of delayed and disqualified ballots, there are going to be problems. Big league.
Donald Trump has warned that the surge in mail-in ballots, part of a deliberate Democrat strategy, could cause severe problems that would leave the result of the presidential election in doubt for days or weeks.
Part of it is voting fraud, something Democrats and the media discount completely. Part of it is mail delays, which Democrats and the media insanely and falsely blame on Trump. The third part is invalidation of ballots which has a high rate for mail-in voting in 2020 primaries.
Disregard for this purpose fraud — mail delays and fights over ballot invalidation could leave the results unknown and cause mayhem.
The implications are enormous as to the timing of results:
State election officials in some key battleground states have warned that it might take days to count the votes given what they expect will be a surge of ballots sent by mail. In an election as close as 2016′s, a delayed tally in key states could keep news organizations from calling a winner.
“It may be several days before we know the outcome of the election,” said Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s Democratic secretary of state, said in May. “We have to prepare for that now and accept that reality.”
Delayed results are common in a few states where elections are already conducted largely by mail. But a presidential election hasn’t been left in limbo since 2000, when ballot irregularities in Florida led to weeks of chaos and court fights.
More important than timing, it may call the results into dispute due to local election official error handling mail-in ballots, as happened recently in Detroit:
Recorded ballot counts in 72% of Detroit’s absentee voting precincts didn’t match the number of ballots cast, spurring officials in Michigan’s largest county to ask the state to investigate ahead of a pivotal presidential election.
Without an explanation from Detroit election workers for the mismatches, the Wayne County Board of Canvassers requested this week for Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s office to examine the “training and processes” used in Detroit’s Aug. 4 primary, which one official described as a “perfect storm” of challenges. The board is charged with certifying election results….
The “storm” involved a record number of absentee ballots being cast in Michigan’s primary and seasoned election workers not feeling it was safe to help with administering the election because of COVID-19, he added.
NPR reports today, More Than 550,000 Primary Absentee Ballots Rejected In 2020, Far Outpacing 2016:
An extraordinarily high number of ballots — more than 550,000 — have been rejected in this year’s presidential primaries, according to a new analysis by NPR.
That’s far more than the 318,728 ballots rejected in the 2016 general election and has raised alarms about what might happen in November when tens of millions of more voters are expected to cast their ballots by mail, many for the first time.
Election experts said first-time absentee voters are much more likely to make the kinds of mistakes that lead to rejected ballots. Studies also show that voters of color and young voters are more likely than others to have their ballots not count.
Most absentee or mail-in ballots are rejected because required signatures are missing or don’t match the one on record, or because the ballot arrives too late….
The numbers compiled by NPR are almost certainly an underestimate since not all states have made the information on rejected mail-in ballots available.
Disputes over disqualified mail-in ballots could cause a rupture that will make Florida hanging-chads look like the good old days. Sarah Isgur, who writes for The Dispatch, tweeted:
Annnnd now we have an even clearer picture: Nearly twice as many *primary election absentee ballots* were rejected so far this year compared to *general election absentee ballots* from 2016. ALARM BELLS SHOULD BE GOING OFF, FOLKS!
Absentee ballots normally are evenly split by party. But this year Dems are 3-4 times as likely to vote absentee…leading to lots of painful litigation about which ballots will count. Could skew race as much as 5 points in battleground states!
Imagine every precinct captain in a battleground state deciding whether a signature on a ballot matches the voter’s signature card when they know that a ballot is 4x as likely to be a vote for Biden?
The suggestion that Trump supporters in election offices will try to disqualify ballots because they are more likely to be Biden votes is unfounded, but the possibility that more Biden ballots could be disqualified could swing the election according to a column Isgur wrote on August 3:
Trump can win re-election even if he’s way behind in the polls. Let me show you how.
The president has been railing against mail-in ballots for weeks and it has had an effect on his voters. Last week, Harvard CAPS-Harris released their poll which found that 88 percent of Democrats want to have a mail-in ballot option versus only 50 percent of Republicans. Another ABC News/Washington Post poll found that “only 28 percent of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s supporters saw mail voting as vulnerable to substantial fraud, whereas 78 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters did.”
So far, every pundit I’ve seen has said this is a bad thing for Trump. But they’re wrong. If anything, the Trump campaign should be trying to drive these numbers further apart.
Let’s peek at New York’s primary from June 23. Several of the races have yet to be called because of the enormous delay in counting tens of thousands of absentee ballots. By way of comparison, in 2016, 23,000 absentee ballots were returned and validated in New York. This year, there were more than 400,000 absentee ballots returned. Again, everyone I’ve seen is using these numbers to predict that the November election won’t be called for days or weeks. Sure, that may be a problem but they are missing a much, much larger one staring them in the face.
Of those ballots that make it back to their voting precinct, “tens of thousands of mail-in ballots were invalidated for technicalities like a missing signature or a missing postmark on the envelope.” And that’s not even counting the people who requested an absentee ballot that never arrived or arrived after the election.
To make this abundantly clear: Nearly everyone who votes in person has their vote counted but far fewer of those who try to vote absentee have their vote counted. In one study out of Georgia in 2018, the rejection rate for absentee ballots was as high as 17 percent—and that’s of voters who were able to receive their ballots and return them. Currently in New York, they are reporting that 20-25 percent of absentee ballots that were returned have been disqualified.
Normally this doesn’t matter all that much because there isn’t a big partisan difference in absentee voters and both sides have a robust “absentee chase” program in which the campaigns work to ensure their absentee voters get their ballots and fill them in correctly and return them in time to be counted. But that kind of manpower is nearly impossible when absentee ballot requests soar by 20 fold as they did in New York’s June primary.
What does this all mean in terms of November?
Assuming there’s a lot more mail in ballots this time around, Joe Biden may need to be running ahead of Trump by more than 5 points with people who intend to vote to actually receive more valid votes in the final count.*
Currently, Biden is up by 8 points nationally but polls tend to tighten after Labor Day and as Clinton learned in 2016, winning the popular vote doesn’t do you any good. As of now, Biden is only up 6 points in Florida and Pennsylvania. The rest of the top tier battleground states are within 5 points.
Imagine waking up on November 4. Trump is ahead based on in-person votes cast. There’s something like 50 million absentee ballots that have been returned to precincts across the country, which are expected to favor Biden by a wide margin but nobody knows for sure. And now thousands of individual election officials need to determine how many million of those ballots to invalidate because “the signature on the ballot not matching the signature on the state’s records,” “the ballot not having a signature,” a “problem with return envelope,” or “missing the deadline.”
This would be, to put it mildly, a problem on many fronts.
Combine a surprise Trump win though Biden was ahead in the polls, mail delays, election board incompetence, and massive disqualification of (mostly Biden) ballots, and you have the recipe for an eruption.
Hell, Democrats rioted at the 2017 Inauguration even though Trump won fair and square. Expect rioting, looting, arson, and violence that will dwarf what has happened so far post-George Floyd killing.
A court fight may suit Democrats just fine, it may even be part of the plan:
From our perspective of working in, consulting for, and running over 300 political campaigns, that’s exactly what Democrats have in mind, especially for swing states, such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and key Trump states like Florida….
As we explained many times in the past, Election Day chaos is part of the Democrat Party’s political strategy. See It’s Not A Protest, It’s Not A Riot, It’s A Revolution (Part 4) and The Democrats’ Chaos Strategy Almost Worked In Florida for examples.
The goal of this chaos strategy is to bring the conduct and results of the 2020 election inside the “margin of chaos,” where means other than counting legally cast votes, attributable to legal voters, will determine the outcome.
Crucial to this strategy is to fundamentally change the way American elections are conducted by eliminating in-person, ID checked voting and substituting unverifiable mail ballots, or online voting.
Once Democrats push an election inside the margin of litigation, election laws and the rules and deadlines, with which honest Republican candidates complied pre-election, are thrown out the window by activist Leftist judges and highly partisan Democrat supervisors of elections to the advantage of Democratic candidates and committees who knew in advance that ballots that were illegal on their face would have a good chance of being counted – as they were in the recent New York House District 12 Democrat primary election.
Conservatives must come to grips with the reality that for the new radical progressive Democratic Party politics is warfare, and the only rule in war is to win.
What if Trump loses in the midst of such a mess? Will the 82nd Airborne need to remove him from the White House? Will Trump supporters loot Target and attack courthouses. Doubtful, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be civil disruption.
Unless one candidate wins by a margin outside of delayed and disqualified ballots, there are going to be problems. Big league.DONATE
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.