Unemployment Claims Come in at 1.3 Million, Continuing Claims Down by 737,750
You see the word “decrease” a lot in the report.
Unemployment claims continue to tumble! The Labor Department’s report states that 1.3 million Americans filed unemployment claims last week, which is down by 10,000 from the previous week.
Continuing claims fell by 737,750 to 17.338 million.
The department revised the previous week down by 4,000 to 1.314 million Americans.
The last four weeks saw an average of 1.375 million Americans file claims, which is “a decrease of 60,000 from the previous week’s revised average.”
The report uses the word “decrease” a lot, which will probably disappoint those suffering from TDS:
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 11.9 percent for the week ending July 4, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised down by 0.2 from 12.4 to 12.2 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 4 was 17,338,000, a decrease of 422,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 302,000 from 18,062,000 to 17,760,000. The 4-week moving average was 18,272,250, a decrease of 737,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 75,500 from 19,085,500 to 19,010,000.
But will this stick? The coronavirus has spiked in many states, forcing governors and other officials to shut down again.
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Bringing jobs back from China is the fastest way to recovery.
After all, they have lost face because of their handling of the pandemic.
There is some truth to your statement. Manufacturing jobs continue to increase as companies move out of China. Higher value jobs are going to the USA and medium/lower value jobs are reshoring to Mexico.
In the last 4 years – 5 MILLION jobs have come back from China to the US and Mexico.
Comrade Whitmer of Michigan really, really wants to shut down Michigan. Positive cases could be claimed to have spiked, hitting 891 yesterday – a number not seen since April. There are some glaring differences. First, the 891 positives were from a sample of 35,802 people tested. Second, back on April 30 there were 101 deaths statewide and yesterday there were only 4. Lastly, back on April 30 the University of Michigan Hospital had 97 inpatients positive with Covid and yesterday they had 8.
Bottom line is that you can test all you want and find all the new cases you want but this thing has morphed into a bad flu season and is no longer a pandemic.
At this point Comrade Whitmer is obviously willing to destroy the economy of Michigan to deliver for Biden, otherwise she would let this new flu run it’s course and let us all get back to work.
It’s fun to watch the control freaks’ faces when you ask questions like how many were tested, how many of those were positive, how many of those were symptomatic, how many of those were admitted and for how long, how many went to ICU and for how long, how many were entubated, how many died *OF* COVID-19 and how many *WITH* COVID-19 and lastly, what comorbidities were present. At that point it’s possible to have a meaningful conversation but many times nobody wants to stand around to have one. Pardon the runon but you get my drift.
It’s also fun to see the look in the eyes of those who are easily impressed when they have to face the six basic questions – and can’t comfortably answer.
Notice how the employment numbers started dropping and the lockdown number started increasing.
The “experts” are spinning this as a disappointment of their expectations. Apparently they didn’t factor in the $600 disincentives for people from returning to work.
The other game being played is the “promising progress” for a vacine for Covid-19. Two problems with that. They haven’t developed vaccines for Covid 1 thru 19 nor for AIDS or Avian flu. Why is this Covid-19 different? This is just a reprieve to keep hope alive on schedule for the pre-election bombshell: the revelation of a new strain or worse version of covid.
I’ll bet the expedited approval process for that vaccine will produce an ineffective vaccine. But the pharmaceutical companies will make a fortune.
So, once again we are seeing two NEW unemployment claims for every existing claims reduction. and, this is supposed to be good news. The economy is NOT coming back, it is actually getting worse. The main reason for that is the continuing COVID scam. Now we are getting reports that single individuals are being listed as multiple COVID cases [some as high as 15 or more], even if they have no symptoms. This is all a scam designed to allow the Democrats and their masters to beat Donald Trump in November. Wake up, people.
“The coronavirus has spiked in many states, forcing governors and other officials to shut down again.”
Aside from widespread protests by Communist organizations while not wearing the Holy Masks and not practicing the Holy Social Distancing, there is more testing going on. So if anyone is to blame the increase in cases can be laid at the feet of politicians who thought a race war would be a swell idea.
Our county population: 74,000
Our Covid-19 death rate: 3
Our current active cases: 130 (out of 270 or so total positives since the beginning of this thing, which sounds like some of the ‘actives’ are really ‘used to be positive but now they’ve recovered, although we didn’t get them checked off the list’)
So we’re running about a third of a percent active right now, plus or minus depending on asymptotic cases that aren’t caught, and recovered people who may still be listed.
Another good report showing a continuing decline in unemployment claims. A couple of thoughts:
1. The $600 extra benefit ends in July. This extra cash allowed a perverse incentive to draw unemployment vs work. When it ends I anticipate a larger than normal drop in unemployment numbers.
2. The corporate economy, due to larger cash reserves and better access to capital, has been better positioned to ride this out. This isn’t a traditional economic event. It was artificially imposed.
3. Main street has been hit hard but with assistance from the relief package many will emerge stronger. Why? The marginal businesses have been culled. Their better employees are finding work at the remaining small businesses or with corporate employer.
4. Anecdotally, my business resumed prior to expiration of lock down. I am ensuring that we follow all the reasonable safety guidelines. We will survive though we certainly took a revenue hit. We have been able to find alternative service vendors for the things we outsource.
5. New lockdown efforts are not being ignored in TX and NM but individual business owners are tempering the rollbacks with common sense mitigation.
As the current ‘spike’ if it is a ‘spike’ in cases recede, logically that means more folks with at least some level of immunity. The more cases the closer we get to herd immunity, assuming we are interested in the history and science of infectious disease.
Bottom line is everyday brings us closer to the end of this panic pandemic. The excuses of government to not reopen are growing thin. As more businesses open up, even on a limited basis, unemployment drops. Salaries are out into the economy and economic growth resumes.
There will be no herd immunity with COVID. Essentially, COVID is similar io seasonal flu and Swine flu. Antibodies last less than two years. That is why people need a flu vaccination every single year. There is no long term immunity from these types of viruses.
Now, unemployment is NOT dropping. If the claims numbers are any indication, it is actually increasing. Many businesses are not recalling 100% of their former employees. They are operating with 50% or less staff. There is a growing number of businesses which are not reopening or are filing for bankruptcy. Will that change by the en of July, when the extra $600 benefit runs out. Now, remember, the PPP was supposed to make it possible for businesses to continue to to pay their furloughed workers and put them back to work immediately. That has not happened on a wide scale.
Will the economy come back? Probably, given time and favorable conditions. But, it is not coming back at the moment. And, the longer this COVID response continues, the longer it will take for the economy to recover significantly. And, that is the liberal plan.
The reason for an annual flu shot is because the vaccine chosen for that year flu season represents the best educated guess as to which flu is likely to be confronted that season.
Rona herd immunity is coming closer with every day. We only need to get close to that point. Vaccine development is coming. Not to mention that the Rona will, assuming it follows the historical and scientific path of other diseases, mutate to a less deadly but more infectious form. No disease lasts long if it kills the host.
Unemployment new claims lower on a weekly basis plus a reduction in existing unemployment claims of nearly 3/4 million is very good trend.
Just as I had to make adjustments to my business under Rona, others must adapt as well. Those who can’t will fail. Their inventory and equipment will be sold. Another entrepreneur will take their place and hire displaced employees. That’s no different than the normal business cycle.
Anecdotally I can say my gross revenue is up 10 times in June booked and 12 times July receivables vs April. I simply looked for ways to succeed instead of crying about how unfair the Rona is and how hard things will be. All I, and many other owners, did is figure out a potential solution and got busy making it work. That’s what Americans do, it’s who we are.
Obviously those businesses who are nimble, innovative and responsive will be able to adapt. Those business owners unable or unwilling to make changes in the face of this challenge who bemoan the situation while awaiting someone to save them are not likely to care well.
It is important to have a glass half full attitude while remembering that hope ain’t a plan. Lots of small business folks out here making it work. It isn’t gloom and doom unless you choose that for yourself. At least in my neck of the woods.
No, the reason for the annual flu shot is because immunity only lasts for around two years following the inoculation. Usually, the flu vaccines rotate between one aimed mainly at traditional seasonal flu strains and one aimed more toward H1N1. We have even found that the MMR vaccine only provides 10-15 years worth of immunity.
While a reduction in weekly new unemployment claims along with a reduction in long term claims is good. But, when you are still running 2:1 new claims versus those leaving the unemployment roles this is NOT good news. And, it becomes even worse news if another round of draconian restrictions or closures is imposed.
Glad to see that your revenues are up over April. But, when did your business shut down? How do they stack up to January or even this time last year? Higher? Lower? The same?
Now, I’m going to let you in on a little secret. People know whether they are working or not. They know if their income stream allows them to pay their bills. And, many can not. And, that is going to have an impact on the November elections. A negative impact for Trump. This is the whole point of COVID, in this country, and with the civil unrest. It is all designed to scare people into allowing the Democrats win the election in November. Cripple the economy by hyping a virus, manufacturing a cause for anarchism and civil unrest and then cripple the economy by closing the schools and making it impossible for people to return to work in the fall.
So, how do you fight that and win? Destroy the false COVID narrative. Once you do that, people will demand that the politicians open the society up. This will open the economy. This will stimulate employment. This will give people discretionary income to further expand the economy. And, this will result in the re-election if Donald Trump. But, if people wait too long, there will not be time for these results to be evident. And, then there is the inevitable vote suppression and vote fraud which the Dems will take advantage of.
Revenue is on pace to be better than last year, so the workarounds and adjustments made for Rona are paying off for the short term for certain and, fingers crossed long term.
Obviously individuals know what their income is and what their expenses are. Don’t blame the Rona for a shortfall. Folks can get a side hustle.
Single folks without kids can join the military or move to a state without draconian restrictions. Folks with a mortgage have a harder path but not impossible. Sell the house and move.
All I am saying is that options exist. Opportunity exists. Individuals have to seek out and find that opportunity though. Don’t expect that someone else is going to do it for you.
I joined the army out of HS, did one enlistment and came home and went to college and law school while in the reserve. Become a stock broker. Joined the Army again in 2001 for obvious reasons and was retired on disability in 2014. Bought rental properties and have made a go of it.
None of that was easy and none make me any better or worse morally than anyone else. Some of the choices I made were, in hindsight, less than optimal. My Dad once told me ‘if work was fun it would be called something else’. My point is that all the hand wringing about how Rona is the cause of all the world’s problems is BS. Get over it and go to work or at least go where you are allowed to work. Don’t wallow in despair.
IMO, most folks are ‘over’ the Rona. Tired of the panic stoking and total lack of objectivity about Rona. Red states will open and blue will not as a rule of thumb. Schools though are going to be a flash point. As more and more folks understand that the risks of opening schools are miniscule they are going to push for reopening them.
Once that critical mass is reached the same folks will begin demanding concrete answers to why we can’t simply utilize social distancing, wear a mask etc and open up everything.
Either these Rona health guidelines for prevention are worthwhile or they are worthless.
Everyone has a choice. They may not like the set of alternatives but that doesn’t make them less real. If someone chooses to lay in the gutter and take a curb stomping from the Rona without fighting back that’s on them. No one can truly help them until they choose to change their mindset. If someone believes that they are defeated before the fight is over they have already lost, nothing we say or do can change their life outcome.
Chief, I notice that you failed too answer y simple question as to whether your Juan and July receipts were higher, lower or the same as your receipts for January or this time last year. Instead you give us a PROJECTION that you are on-pace for similar income to last year. What was your projection for this year’s income BEFORE the totally unexpected reaction to the COVID virus occurred? And, does your projection take into account another total shutdown of the economy for 2-3 months?
Now, I am going to give you a chance to explain a few things to me. If the COVID virus is truly dangerous, why do we see more and more evidence that the numbers of “infections” and “deaths” due to COVID are inflated, sometimes horrendously so. Why does the media and medical community keep harping on the number of “asymptomatic” cases, while providing NO accurate numbers of such cases? Why were masks ineffective in preventing the spread of this disease two months ago but now are critical to stopping its spread? If masks are effective, why is social distancing necessary? Why did we shut down the entire economy and society of the Western world for three months for disease only slightly more deadly than yearly flu [something which has never been done before]? why aren’t we aren’t we doing widespread testing and quarantine for seasonal flus, including H1N1? Why is this virus reportedly so different from every other similar virus in history? Maybe it isn’t.
About the economy. Please explain how having twice the number of new unemployment claims than the number of people going off unemployment compensation [even if they are all becoming employed and not just having their benefits end]is a sign of a recovery. Explain what market forces caused the unemployment rate to rise from 3-4%, in January, to 20% today. Explain how the failure of many businesses to reopen or to go bankrupt is the sign of a growing economy. Explain how a consumer society can remain healthy if the bulk of the consumers are not making enough disposable income to stimulate its growth. Explain how increased debt, to survive during the economic shutdown is going to make it easier for individuals and businesses to quickly return to normalcy.
I am really interested in the answers to these questions.
Since you state you are really interested in getting answers to your rambling screed, ok come to EL Paso but bring your check book. It’s gonna cost.
Weekly unemployment this week was better than last week. That is an improvement. Improvements are good.
Debt is taken on all the time. Fact of life. Get a side hustle, a different job, a second job, third job, join the French Foreign Legion to improve your ability to repay debt. Refinance, move to where jobs are. If folks took on too much debt instead of finding another solution how is that my issue? Dude, I will very callously buy their property in a foreclosure if it is attractive enough. That’s life, not the Rona.
That last paragraph drifted petty close to standard class warfare Marxist rhetoric. Are you sure your on the correct site? Times are unusual, self inflicted economic wounds to be sure. None of that excuses sitting around whining instead of figuring out and implementing a solution.
Wanting things to be different because they seem unfair is ok, as long as one eventually gets off their ass and fights back. If folks lay down and give up expecting uncle sugar to save them they are not going to succeed.
Rona is dangerous to certain populations. The elderly, those with hypertension, pulmonary issues, ect. The rest of us ain’t immune but almost certainly will not die or have more than mild symptoms from Rona. Exceptions exist but not many.
MSM and those with vested interests in hyping Rona out of proportion have been and will continue to do so as long as those interests are served by doing so.
If wearing a mask, staying 6ft apart, and extra hand washing are the price for blue state government to open up then decide if you are going to comply or move to a less restrictive state. Those seem to be the choices, pick one and get on with life.
Made more this year qtr 1 and 2 than same period last year. Rest of year looks good, lots of booking but folks do change plans. Obviously travel bans don’t help. So if no cancellations and trend of booking 3 weeks prior continues then calender 20 will absolutely be more profitable than calender 19.
I will say that we found lots of cost savings and better more efficient practices as we searched for solutions. I am certain other business owners did the same. Reduce expenses with flat revenue and make more profit. Reduce expense with rising revenue and make way more profit.
“And, that is the liberal plan.”
Yep. The economic recovery cannot truly begin until after Nov 3.
If Trump wins the economy will get better.
If dopey Joe wins the economy will be said to get better.
My earlier prediction:
around 8% by back to school (allow a month for the pandemic free money to end) and 5% by end of year.
We’ll see Andy. But, I wouldn’t make any bets on that this far out.