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Coronavirus Outbreak Showing Signs of Slow Down in Arizona, Texas, and Florida

Coronavirus Outbreak Showing Signs of Slow Down in Arizona, Texas, and Florida

Meanwhile, there are surges in France, Germany, and Spain.

CDC Image https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/images/2019-coronavirus.png

The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to be slowing down for the first time in 2 weeks across the US, with significant reductions reported for Arizona, Texas, and Florida.

On Sunday, Arizona reported a 13% drop in the seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases, logging 2,627 newly diagnosed cases over the previous 24 hours, down from 3,022 the previous week, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

The state has also begun to see signs that its Covid-19 hospitalizations may be slowing down, according to data compiled by the Covid Tracking Project, a volunteer group founded by journalists from The Atlantic magazine. As of Sunday, coronavirus hospitalizations also fell by about 14% from the previous week to a seven-day average of 2,919.

Cases in Texas have fallen almost 19% over the previous week, hitting roughly 8,404 daily new cases based on a seven-day moving average on Sunday, according to the CNBC analysis. Its peak in average daily new cases was 10,572 on July 20. CNBC uses a seven-day average to calculate Covid-19 trends because it smooths out inconsistencies and gaps in state data.

…Florida has just begun seeing its curve start to flatten since reaching a record-high average of daily new cases of 11,870 on July 17, according to data from Johns Hopkins. On Sunday, the state had 10,544 average new cases, which is an 8% decrease compared with a week ago.

As a Californian, I would like to point out I live in one of the most COVID-aware areas of the country, and the state is still trying to handle its surge of new cases.

July has brought a month of grim COVID-19 headlines for California, with a state once seen as a model of prevention enduring a new surge in cases as the economy rapidly reopened.

But will July end with more bad news or some tentative signs that the efforts to slow infections by closing down some businesses and institutions might be paying off?

Health officials are anxious for more signs of the latter, especially amid indications that other hot-spot states may be beginning to plateau.

Astute observers might theorize that the COVID-containment rules seem to be failing, and perhaps preparing for the virus to continue to infect the population until it burns itself out would be the wiser move. The assertion has credence since the Centers for Disease Control has discovered that its original guidance of 14-day quarantines is not warranted.

Citing multiple studies by the agency and beyond, the CDC found those who have mild cases of COVID-19 may not have to be in quarantine for 14 days, that duration potentially being shortened to 10.

Scientists found 10 days after onset symptoms, patients they studied did not have “replication-competent virus” — or in simpler terms, virus which could infect cells and replicate.

For patients with severe cases of COVID-19, scientists found 88% were not contagious after 10 days and 95% were not after 15 days.

Another study involving contact tracing found those in a high-risk household and hospitals who were exposed to a positive patient did not develop symptoms if they came into contact 6 days or more after the patient first reported symptoms.

These findings go on to support the calls for those who feel ill to stay home but also could cut down on the initial 14 day quarantine, depending on severity of illness.

The American media has been bashing the Trump administration for failing to stem the continuing outbreaks, which began to occur shortly after the BLM-protesters gathered with no adherence to the established social distancing guidelines. The press pointed to Europe as a success story.

Now, Germany, France, and Spain are all reporting new outbreaks.

In France, health officials said Friday that a recent rise in new coronavirus cases in the country has “erased” much of the headway made since the country crept out from their lockdown, The Telegraph reported.

1,130 new daily cases were reported Friday, a far cry from the mere 81 counted this time last month, and France is working to have their residents work from home as a mitigation effort.

Spain is also concerned about a potential second wave as new, localized clusters appear to spring up just a month after their lockdown ended, with cities like Barcelona experiencing spikes as its larger region, Catalonia, announced it would shutter nightclubs for two weeks to try and get a grasp of the spread.

Germany’s “second coronavirus wave is already here,” Michael Kretschmer, Saxony’s Minister President, was quoted as saying in the Rheinische Post Saturday per a Deutsche Welle translation.

The country has counted an upward slope of new daily cases over a week, according to media reports, with most coming from the south and southwestern parts of the country.

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Comments

There is an “outbreak” of testing with the focus on asymptomatic people. And all three states listed are border states experiencing a surge in cross-border cases. Meanwhile, deaths continue to decline.

The commies are spinning this to extend the lockdown into the elections. Here in LA, Mayor Yoga Pants plays his daily game of “red zone, orange zone” without any scientific references other than the “outbreak” and blaming this on the 44% who are not wearing their masks. He also continues to praise the peaceful rioters destroying our cities.

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to Pasadena Phil. | July 28, 2020 at 11:55 am

    It Reeks Of Orwell” – The COVID Coup (& How To Unlock Ourselves)

    ……
    Outside of the few who have gained (and are still gaining) power and wealth from the panic, Americans are asking what it will take to end this outrage—not to modify it with any “new normal” decided by who knows whom, on who knows what authority. Since no one in authority is leading those who want to end it, Americans also wonder who may lead that cause. What follows suggests answers.

    What history will record as the great COVID scam of 2020 is based on 1) a set of untruths and baseless assertions—often outright lies—about the novel coronavirus and its effects; 2) the production and maintenance of physical fear through a near-monopoly of communications to forestall challenges to the U.S.. ruling class, led by the Democratic Party, 3) defaulted opposition on the part of most Republicans, thus confirming their status as the ruling class’s junior partner. No default has been greater than that of America’s Christian churches—supposedly society’s guardians of truth.

    Truth
    Since obfuscation, pretense, and lies concerning the COVID-19 are the effective agents of the panic and of the seizure of arbitrary power, truth and clarity about it are the foundational requirements for escaping its effects. Here is a dose.

    From early March 2020 on, the best-known authorities on epidemics—the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control—presented the COVID-19 respiratory disease to the Western world as a danger equivalent to the plague. But China’s experience, which its government obfuscated, had already shown that the COVID-19 virus is much less like the plague and more like the flu. All that has happened since followed from falsifying this basic truth.

    Our “best and brightest,” at first having minimized fears of person-to person contagion during January and February, during which the disease spread from China to the West, then declared that the virus is unusually contagious, and posited—on zero factual basis—that it would kill up to one in twenty persons it infected—5% infection/fatality rate (IFR). Based on that imagined fatality rate, they adopted mathematical models from Britain and the University of Washington that predicted that up to two million Americans would die of it…..

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/it-reeks-orwell-covid-coup-how-unlock-ourselves

    …….

    In short, COVID-19 is not America’s plague. It did not shake America. The ruling class shook it. They have not done it ignorantly or by mistake. They have done it to extort the general public’s compliance with their agendas. Their claim to speak on behalf of “science” is an attempt to avoid being held accountable for the enormous harm they are doing. They continue doing it because they want to hang on to the power the panic has brought them.

    …..

    BTW: Whenever you hear someone claiming to speak on science’s behalf, referring to authorities rather than to facts and logic, you may be sure that person is a fraud.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/it-reeks-orwell-covid-coup-how-unlock-ourselves

    Encourage the peaceful protesters to go maskless. If enough get sick maybe the violence will slow down for a while.

Comrade Governor Whitmer here in Michigan is doing her best to keep our economy in lockdown but you can’t deny the numbers. There are about 30,000 tests a day. As of the latest data dump on the State Covid site, the seven day average has dropped from 564 new cases (700 for the day) down to 291. The deaths are averaging 3 with none yesterday. This is out of 10 million people.

    bw222 in reply to DanJ1. | July 28, 2020 at 7:53 am

    Whitmer made her contribution to helping the nation’s death toll soar by forcing nursing homes to take infected patients when she had two almost-empty field hospitals at the TCF Center in downtown Detroit and the Suburban Showplace in Novi.

    4fun in reply to DanJ1. | July 28, 2020 at 9:38 pm

    Look for the recall petitions tomorrow.

I see no surge in France or Germany, and Spain’s case count includes antibody tests.

Spain has essentially zero deaths.

If we assume everyone will come in contact with it then the number of “cases” is irrelevant. Its the mortality rate that matters. Somehow, we’ve all (mostly) been conditioned to count cases as if stopping it is possible, not likely. I have maintained the mortality rate is no worse than the average cold or flu and statistics keep bearing that out.

The use of cases instead of mortality is just another attack angle at Trump (and us) because they know there is little likelihood the virus itself will be stopped. So the left has forced Trump to attempt to do so, knowing he cannot, and using that suppowed failure against him (us). The left knows no depths of depravity…

There is an absurdly simple formula for calculating death trends.

First look at a state’s case mortality rate. There are sites that publish this, but I get it from worldometers.com.

I look only at seven day averages. There’s a button for this.

Find the number of new cases from a month ago. Add three weeks and find the number of deaths. The ratio is case mortality.

You can now calculate the number of deaths three weeks into the future. Just look at the current number of new cases and apply the mortality rate.

It’s different for each state, and it has declined a lot since April.

    gonzotx in reply to Petrushka. | July 28, 2020 at 9:00 am

    Could you do one for Texas and Florida for me? Thanks

      Petrushka in reply to gonzotx. | July 28, 2020 at 11:57 am

      Texas has peaked in cases and is close to peaking in deaths. I tested my formula last month n Texas and predicted it would reach 150 per day, average before declining. It seems to be doing just that.

      Florida has scary daily peaks, probably a quirk of reporting, but its average is still below that of Texas. I could be wrong, but I think Florida has fewer protests.

      I would bet that Florida is close to its peak in new cases. It has been at a plateau for over a week. I don’t expect it to reach an average of 150 per day, but it might.

      I would expect florida to reach 130 this week and start declining. Currently about 120.

New York still has a case mortality rate twice that of Florida, Texas or California.

Either New York has terrible doctors, or there is some systematic difference in the way they report.

    Voyager in reply to Petrushka. | July 28, 2020 at 2:41 pm

    New York was sending Covid patients into the nursing home system, while Texas and Florida stopped that the moment it became obvious it was a bad idea.

Using my formula, I predict the seven day average deaths for the US will rise to about 1300 by the middle of August, and then start dropping.

By the end of August, the decline will be inarguable.

Some time between the end of August and election day, covid will cease to qualify as a pandemic.

    jaudio in reply to Petrushka. | July 28, 2020 at 1:00 pm

    I have been carefully watching all the states that have been experiencing a “Farr’s law” spike and comparing them with New York’s spike back at the beginning of this thing. I am in Ohio. Using my layman’s ball parking skills, I have predicted a 7 day moving average of 500 cases per day by September 1. Would you be able to apply your formula to Ohio and make a Sept 1 prediction?

Now, Germany, France, and Spain are all reporting new outbreaks.

Country, new cases per million population
France, 15
Germany, 7
S. Korea, 1
Spain, 43
U.S., 187

The missing piece from the strictly numbers based reports are analysis of what employers, private and public, are doing in response. What mitigation measures have they put in place, do those planned measures pass muster? Are the effective and better yet are they allowed to be effective?

My wife’s employer put in place very sound procedures and policy to mitigate transmission. They had a six week or so work at home period to game out their plan. Then they conducted on site plan refinement. Finally they conducted on site walk through rehearsals prior to reopening.

The problem was, despite none of the protocols being breached, they had corporate level leadership ignore the plan and policies they had blessed off on and instead have imposed a shut down twice.

No employee was ‘exposed’ in any sense. The customer would call in to say ‘hey I wasn’t feeling sick, but my Rona came back positive’. Great that the customer called that information in. The problems are multiple;

1. In each case the test results were for a test conducted weeks prior. So transmission unlikely.
2. The customer was physically prevented by barriers from coming within six feet of an employee. All customers and employees wear masks. So again transmission unlikely.
3. The customer was simply dropping off paperwork. That paper was received by a gloved and masked employee who put it under one of the infrared light sets to kill virus.

If something similar is being played out nationwide then reopening isn’t going to work. These business and government leaders need to be willing to follow through with their mitigation protocol. Currently they appear unwilling to do so.

Hopefully the next Rona package will include liability protections where mitigation measures have been put into place. That seems to be the real obstacle, not Rona but the fear of lawsuits arising from Rona.

Meanwhile, Israeli researchers announce that treatment of Covid with a common, cheap anti-cholesterol medication eliminates Covid symptoms in 5 days. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-cholesterol-lowering-meds-potential-downgrade-covid-.html

This a comparative list of Hydroxychloroquine (“HCQ”) studies; graph shows countries with early use
https://c19study.com/

Latest studies
https://www.medicineuncensored.com

That censored press conference by practitioners

Press conference Drs. treating COVID-19

https://thedonald.win/p/Gbk628Hd/american-doctors-address-covid19/c/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaX8-JbaacE&feature=youtu.be

Now available on bit chute
https://www.bitchute.com/video/HeC0tHZDX7dk/

I wonder what Trump supporters know?
No COVID-19 Outbreaks From President Trump’s Mount Rushmore Visit

https://www.gowatertown.net/no-covid-19-outbreaks-from-president-trumps-mount-rushmore-visit/

panel of practitioners, morning
https://thedonald.win/new
https://streamable.com/n3s3fw

Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought

That is only about half the excess mortality percentage for the UK (45%), Italy (44%) and Spain (56%), and is also lower than for France (31%), the Netherlands (27%) and Switzerland (26%), despite Sweden not having imposed a lockdown or shut primary schools. Moreover, total mortality in Sweden over the last 24 months is now lower than over the previous 24 months, despite an upward trend in the old age population

Slow the spread, flatten the curve, sustain the pandemic. Planned Parent (PP) a was the single greatest cause of excess mortality. Social contagion and stigmatizing treatment also aided and abetted viral viability and disease progression.

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