Wuhan Virus Watch: Stanford Medicine Investigating Possible California Herd Immunity to COVID-19
A study associated with MIT of sewage found that one section of Massachusetts likely has over 100,000 coronavirus cases.
Stanford Medicine began an investigation to discover herd immunity to the Wuhan coronavirus.
From KSBW:
Researchers at Stanford Medicine are working to find out what proportion of Californians have already had COVID-19. The new study could help policymakers make more informed decisions during the coronavirus pandemic.
The team tested 3,200 people at three Bay Area locations on Saturday using an antibody test for COVID-19 and expect to release results in the coming weeks. The data could help to prove COVID-19 arrived undetected in California much earlier than previously thought.
The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state’s lower than expected case numbers.
As of Tuesday, the state had 374 reported COVID-19 fatalities in a state of 40 million people, compared to New York which has seen 14 times as many fatalities and has a population half that of California. Social distancing could be playing a role but New York’s stay-at-home order went into effect on March 22, three days after California implemented its order.
Senior Fellow Victor Davis Hanson at Stanford’s Hoover Institute said the investigators know something has happened, but they “haven’t quite found out yet.”
Hanson also believes the coronavirus began in California in the fall because the state welcomed “as many as 8,000 Chinese nationals daily into our airports. Some of those visitors even arriving on direct flights from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China.”
Here is more:
On Friday and Saturday, the study’s co-lead Eran Bendavid coordinated testing at sites in San Jose, Los Gatos and Mountain View. The teams used an antibody test from the company Premier Biotech. Technicians use a finger prick to draw blood for the test and it can tell within minutes if a person developed antibodies to COVID-19.
The same brand test is being offered at a lab in Monterey and healthcare workers there are closely watching the study. Spenser Smith with ARCpoint Labs is aware of the theory that COVID-19 arrived here as early as the fall and that some people may have had the virus unknowingly.
MIT: One Part of Massachusetts has Over 100K Cases Due to Sewage Tests
A study associated with MIT of sewage found that one section of Massachusetts likely has over 100,000 coronavirus cases:
Biobot Analytics, which is a lab associated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, published research this week that an analysis of sewage from a treatment facility in “a large metropolitan area in the state of Massachusetts” suggested that many more people potentially have the highly contagious disease than tests have confirmed.
“On March 25, the area represented by the sample had approximately 446 confirmed cases of Covid-19,” Biobot researchers wrote Wednesday in a post about their research. “Based on our sewage analysis, we estimate that up to 115,000 people are infected and shedding the SARS-CoV-2 virus.”
Biobot, which didn’t respond to requests for comment, didn’t specify where in the state the samples came from.
Trump: Two Million Tests Completed in America
President Donald Trump said at the briefing that the country has completed two million tests:
“I’m reporting today that we passed two million tests completed in the United States,” Trump said during the White House coronavirus task force’s news briefing, adding that the tests are “highly sophisticated and highly accurate.”
—
“We want to have it and we’re going to see if we have it. Do you need it? No. Is it a nice thing to do? Yes. We’re talking about 325 million people and that’s not gonna happen, as you can imagine, and it would never happen with anyone else, either,” the President said. “Other countries do it, but they do it in a limited form. We’ll probably be the leader of the pack.”
Trump also suggested there would be “massive testing” in “certain areas” of the country.
Coronavirus Cases in Washington Have Slowed Down
Some evidence have shown that coronavirus has slowed down in Washington:
While data may be lagging, and some county and state numbers differ, there is at least some evidence that new cases have slowed—for now. King County, which includes Seattle, saw its highest day of new infections on March 26 with roughly 200 cases, with lower daily numbers since then. Snohomish County experienced its largest daily tally on March 27 with 137 new cases, and has since seen a similar decrease. According to UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which provided Ms. Brandenburg with those initial estimates, the state’s peak of Covid-19 deaths may have already passed.
This past Sunday, Gov. Jay Inslee announced Washington would return more than 400 of the 500 extra ventilators it received from the federal government. Other states needed them more, he said.
“Even if we did see additional volumes of patients, we could absorb those right now. That tells us that we are in reasonable shape,” said Tim Dellit, chief medical officer at UW Medicine, which currently has 79 open ICU beds.
Hospital leaders say that early planning, swift implementation of social-distancing measures and the way the virus spread here have helped them weather the storm. So far, at least 421 people have died from Covid-19 in Washington, state data show, though that figure may not reflect all deaths tabulated by counties. In King County, there have been 244 deaths, or roughly 10.83 per 100,000 residents. New York City, by contrast, has had over 4,000 deaths, or about 47 per 100,000 residents.
Coronavirus Hospitalizations in New York “are Nearly Flat”
However, 799 more people have died from coronavirus:
In the past two weeks, the number of virus patients hospitalized has grown more and more slowly, from over 20 percent a day at one point to single-digit percent increases this week.
From Wednesday to Thursday, the number increased by 200, to 18,279, or just 1 percent.
If the trend were to continue, the number of people in hospitals would soon start to decline — a sign that the virus had passed its apex.
But the number of people dying of the virus continues to grow. The state recorded 799 deaths from Wednesday to Thursday, another one-day high.
Deaths in New York State: 799 since yesterday, for a new total of 7,067.
Confirmed cases: 159,937 statewide, up 10,621 from 149,316, a 7 percent increase. In New York City: 87,028, up from 81,803.
People hospitalized: 18,279 statewide, up by 200 from 18,079 Wednesday, an increase of 1 percent.
In intensive care: 4,925, up 84 from 4,841 on Wednesday, a 2 percent increase.
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Comments
Others think the same about the Ca state.
It is more than likely the case that the first infections occurred weeks or even months before the first one was reported. California for instance has such a low death rate because the population built up a herd immunity early and that quelled the spread of infection – just as that is the case every year with your garden variety influenza. But Drs. Fauci and Birx, as well as the Democrat-Media Complex will have none of it. They believe in science and technocracy to such an extent that they willingly toss aside all reason and ethics in order to protect a fellow true believer. Now throw in the political angle to this and it’s cargo cult science in service to an all-powerful State. And the apostates will kneel before it and them.
Ace of Spades
Rush had a segment about the low infection rate in California considering that around 7000 people per day arrive in California from China every day, many from Wuhan. The travel ban didn’t go into effect until some time in January. So, if it started in November, that’s almost two months of the virus spreading in California.
Anecdotally, a caller said that her and her husband had the worse flu ever and that many on their street also had it.
I’ve seen other reports where people have had an unusually bad flu and that if we didn’t know anything about the Wuhan virus, we would chalk it up to an unusually bad flu season. We should act as if that is so and go about our normal business. The sooner we develop the herd immunity, the safer the old and compromised are going to be.
We should act as if that is so and go about our normal business.
There’s quite a chain of “if’s” behind that recommendation. But you may be right, so it would be a good idea to remove some of those if’s — ASAP! — by testing the people who reported those unusually bad flu’s.
Yes, we need widespread and randomized antibody testing ASAP.
No need to study it. Dr. Faucci says its not a factor. He is the worlds greatest expert. Just ask him.
Fauci will be announcing his retirement soon as he has outlived his usefulness to this response.
Biobot, which didn’t respond to requests for comment, didn’t specify where in the state the samples came from.
Striking a blow for private enterprise! We don’t need government to hide potentially useful information from the rest of us, anybody can do it.
Ever smart rush also pointed out that Cali-grewsome also only started soc dist few days before ny – Fredo. So how could such short time frame make so big diff in state stats.
I think I had it back in January… and my kids also. Weirdest cold/flu I have seen in my kids. Definitely different,
This is interesting as a friend was down with a serious bug and borderline hospitalizable pneumonia back in late January. He had a number of intervention measures but it only seemed to resolve with time. During that period he was absent from morning coffee and bluegrass Tuesday for a solid 5-6 week period. I get a couple of rhino viruses every winter so it wouldn’t be a noticeable blip on my radar, but I am am now thinking of calling the red cross to see if they tested the unit I donated last week. My friend is considering getting tested now and is going to call his doctor about it since they were sort of baffled by what was happening with him back then.
The state will do everything they can to suppress the fact that they did the opposite of what should have been done.
This is the single most important question regarding COVID-19- when did it first reach the U.S. and how many people have had it? If it turns out that millions of Americans have already had it, how long do you think the shutdown Governors stay in office? Not long I suspect.
Recalls with pitchfork and torches????????
Yep
Don’t forget the tar & feathers on the way to the pillory!
I am starting to wonder if the original up to 2 million deaths projection and related shutdown was Phase III of the liberals’ efforts to remove Trump, by ruining his great economy?
Tests were on Saturday. Technicians can tell within minutes if a person has antibodies. The results won’t be available for weeks. WTF! Why would the results not be made available immediately? Sure would be nice to know if we’ve been confined to our homes and had our businesses ruined for no f’ing reason.
The truth? You can’t handle the truth.
You said it. Let’s row.
Downvote unintentional, using tablet. Meme in the on-deck circle. “GETTING RID OF TRUMP: 1) Collusion (crossed off) 2) Impeachment (crossed off) 3) destroy economy ?
So, it seems a randomized anti-body test, which it seems Stanford is conducting, can get a good handle on that question. A couple of similar randomized studies could be done nationally.
I know of one person who has had it along with his family. They felt ooky. That was it.
Every member of my extended family had a weird cold this year. Dry cough. Went on longer than normal. I felt winded like I wasn’t getting enough O2 at lower stress levels (wondered if I had a heart issue). I took it easy for a couple weeks and it passed.
I do BJJ and roll with Drs/Nurses/Practitioners/firefighters who are exposed to everything. When I trained The mats would be covered with germs from kids class before that.
Was it the virus? Don’t know. If it was, most of my area has had it and we are being shut down for no good reason.
With the various ways data about deaths have been reported from blaming every death on the Communist Bat Soup Flu Virus (CBSFV) (credit to The Other McCain) to making sure the the cause is really CBSFV, could it be the reported low death rate in CA is basically that, a reported low death rate. Instead of trying to maximize the count according to “new” CDC guidelines which count every death as CBSFV if there is the remotest connection, perhaps, .CA, may have minimized them, to make the governor and state government look good. Doesn’t the state government, at the basic level, decide how deaths are to be reported?
Friday, April 10, 2020
Gavin Newsom is the new Democrat heartthrob… Don Suber
I predict we’ll eventually discover that the infection was very widespread, and that therefore the mortality rate is many orders of magnitude lower than the models predicted early on.
The lesson will be that “the scientists” are often wrong, especially when they’re relying upon predictive models.
But will we learn the lesson? And will it impact the raving lunacy regarding the “climate crisis” debate?
And scientists are usually always wrong when they’re nothing more than political hacks.
Yep, and one of the benefits to the progs of their takeover of the academy is that they now have a built-in base of “experts” when they make their “appeals to authority.” Progs rarely debate / argue in good faith.
#MeTooflu
I got nailed in December along with everyone at work. I’m already a germophobe especially in winter. Don’t know how the hell I got sick but I was sick for a week. I never get sick. Had high temp and lungs were aching and that damn dry cough. Really cut down on my smoking.
Same stories up here. I have suspicion from family member in Oklahoma in November at the virus was there by that time.
The mayor of Anchorage is using the Chinese published information as a basis for ramping up the city. Does that include cremation of living patients and suppression of facts? There is a “D” after his name.
The Massachusetts sewage study meeds some clarification. The projection gave a range of possible infection cases, with the low-end estimate at 2300 cases in that county. But that number isn’t fodder for headlines.