Most Read
Image 01 Image 02 Image 03

Maybe it’s time to dial back the coronavirus drama

Maybe it’s time to dial back the coronavirus drama

During Task Force press briefing, Vice President Pence notes millions of tests are poised to be sent to state labs by end of next week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qyu1XG-wnw

After a week of covering the Wuhan coronavirus as both as a pundit and a biosafety professional, I have come to the conclusion that maybe it is time to dial back the drama associated with the pathogen.

Let’s begin by starting with some perspective. The current flu season has hit 32 million Americans, resulting in 18,000 deaths, and the vaccine that was selected for the flu season was limited in its effectiveness. Yet, we are not doing a daily flu death countdown.

Understandably, COVID-19 is a new pathogen. However, American bioscientists and medical professionals have focused on it with impressive intensity. It is from a family of viruses that have been well-researched. Currently, the CDC has established the following risk levels:

  • For most of the American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus at this time, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low.
  • People in communities where ongoing community spread with the virus that causes COVID-19 has been reported are at elevated, though still relatively low risk of exposure.
  • Healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 are at elevated risk of exposure.
  • Close contacts of persons with COVID-19 also are at elevated risk of exposure.
  • Travelers returning from affected international locations where community spread is occurring also are at elevated risk of exposure.

Next, I believe that the virus should be rebranded to reflect a more realistic degree have hazard for most people. Conservative pundit Don Surber suggests the “Corona Flu.”

Mollie Hemingway, senior editor at The Federalist, would also like to use another term:

After some consideration, I would like to propose: The China Cough. This name would be in recognition of the role the Chinese government had in allowing the virus to get out of control, as well as the fact it is mainly a respiratory illness (rather than a flu). However, I am open to other suggestions, so please leave them in the comments.

Another excellent reason to stop panicking is the fact the Coronavirus Task Force is clearly on top of the situation. Vice President Michael Pence headed a smart, succinct press briefing that addressed the situation with the Grand Princess cruise ship that is moored off the coast of California:

Of the 46 people swab-tested on the Grand Princess so far, 21 tested positive for the virus and one was deemed inconclusive, Pence said. The rest tested negative for the disease. Nineteen of those who tested positive were crew members.

“We’re taking all measures necessary to see to the health of the Americans on the Grand Princess and just as importantly to protect the health of the American public and prevent the spread of the disease,” Pence told reporters at the White House. “We will be testing everyone on the ship. We will be quarantining.”

The press is currently ginning up fear about the lack test kits. However, Pence noted that all the state labs that had requested test kits have received them. And because of the changes in the regulations implemented by the Trump administration last week, the state labs can actually run the tests.

Between March 2 and 5, over 900,000 tests had been distributed across the country. By the end of next week, 4 million tests could be shipped. Pence made it clear that a public-private partnership (working with Lab Corp and Quest) was being implemented toward getting even more test materials to the state labs more quickly.

Earlier this week, Pence promised coronavirus testing will be covered by private insurance plans and by Medicare and Medicaid. He said that because the Department of Health and Human Services has designated the coronavirus test as an “essential health benefit,” people will not have to pay for it out of pocket.

Thousands of tests have been shipped to health centers across the country and more are expected to be next week, officials said Friday.

In other words: Millions of tests for a disease that was essentially unknown a month ago will soon be in the hands of America’s public health professionals. I cannot imagine another administration responding so robustly to stem a potential epidemic.

Finally, Dr. James Phillips, operational medicine fellowship director at George Washington University, recently said that most people who contract the coronavirus will “do just fine.

“Most of us are going to get this virus. It’s undeniable,” said Phillips. “You won’t find a single expert out there who is saying that this is going to be contained. “And, the more we learn about it, the more we see that the spread is going to be global and, for the most part, that’s OK because the data we know from China shows that roughly 98 to 99 percent of us are going to do very, very well.”

In conclusion: Stay calm and keep your hands away from your face.

DONATE

Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.

Comments

How ’bout “M-M-M-My Corona” (hat tip: The Knack).

      MrE in reply to windbag. | March 7, 2020 at 2:42 pm

      LOL! I’ve never seen that guy before! He’s good and hysterical!

      The problem with song-parody writing is getting them recorded and out there before the lyrics stale-date. Karaoke trax could make it easy but for the licensing fees and time to secure a sync license for video, which for me has been a real obstacle.

        notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to MrE. | March 7, 2020 at 7:12 pm

        MSNBC Hopes Coronavirus Is ‘Trump’s Katrina’

        https://www.weaselzippers.us/445114-msnbc-hopes-coronavirus-is-trumps-katrina/

          notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital. | March 8, 2020 at 7:01 pm

          Didn’t The Mainstream Media Mock President Trump For Saying Exactly This? That COVID-19 Mortality May Be Significantly Lower Than Originally Reported? — CBD

          Ace of Spades

          notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital. | March 8, 2020 at 7:02 pm

          Ibib.

          “Anyone with an ounce of common sense and a basic understanding of numbers could have predicted that the original reports of high mortality were almost certainly incorrect.

          But our news is reported by people who give short-bus riders a bad name. And they have created the hysteria that we see today, for no other reason than to wound the current administration.

          I can see no other obvious reason, other than their typical love of histrionics.”

          notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital. | March 8, 2020 at 7:05 pm

          Ibib.

          “…same editors have fought every measure designed to prevent a communicable disease called AIDS, and as a result thousands of Americans, and many more Africans are dead.

          Because disease is a political tool, not a public health issue for the scum who run the “Gray Lady”…

          …. odds are that it will settle into a seasonal disease like flu, with similar outcomes.

          And all predictions are that we will have a vaccine soon, so the existential extrapolations of millions of deaths and global recession are wildly overblown.

          What is sad is that the media’s irresponsibility is glaringly obvious…”

not as long as it can be used against Pres Trump, in matter of fact expect it to get worst, especially as we get closer to the election.

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to ronk. | March 7, 2020 at 3:54 pm

    That’s a great Suber article Leslie linked to. Did you see it?

    Suber:

    “ITEM 1: The CDC estimates that from October 1 through February 22, the flu has caused between 18,000 and 46,000 deaths in America. Between 32 million and 45 million people have had the flu so far this flu season.

    The Corona Virus death toll in the USA is 11.

    The only thing this OMG Pandemic is killing is the stock market

    WJLA reported, “3 test positive for coronavirus in Maryland, Gov. Hogan declares State of Emergency.”

    We are beyond parody….”

      Michigan did the same thing on the *Vaping Crisis*!!!!11
      We had a massive 20 or so cases, no deaths yet, in fact I believe the national death toll was under 50, less than 1 person per State when Michigan declared a state of emergency.

      We’re not quite Pavlovian yet, though.

        The Friendly Grizzly in reply to Wrathchilde. | March 7, 2020 at 6:30 pm

        Pavlovian enough. I remember the cranberries-cause-cancer thing in, I think, 1958. The Pinto is a deathtrap, but other cars in its class were tested and were every bit as dangerous if not more so.

        Et cetera.

My guess is that once those test kits are distributed, the number of “positives” will drop sharply. It is my contention that the numbers are being inflated by intentionally including lots of people with the “usual” virus. Same with the reported deaths.

The truth is that so many of these “public servants” are so politicized, we just can’t trust them to tell us the truth about anything. BTW, has anyone seen any statistics on the “usual” non-political annual virus that killed a reported 61,000 people last year? How easy would it be to fold a couple thousands of those deaths in with the Coronavirus stats? Only one reported but unconfirmed infection is cause for declaring a statewide emergency!

    The major of Austin declared a “local emergency” yesterday and cancelled a major conference / music festival that was planned for next week. Not a single reported case anywhere in the city or surrounding county at this point.

      notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to Paul. | March 7, 2020 at 3:41 pm

      The DEMS are doing that where-ever they are entrenched to try
      and hurt the BOOMING Economy.

      Liz in reply to Paul. | March 7, 2020 at 5:56 pm

      It’s not the current status but what may result from a massive influx of people from all over the place.

      We have already know that people do not stay home when they have a cold, the flu, etc. So, why would they stay home if they have been exposed to the CoViD? Remember the guy in NH who worked at a medical center that went to a show cause he could. How many people did he infect?

      I think the Austin gov’t is protecting their people, not the incoming.

      Oh – see the number of people coming back from vacations in Italy, Iran, etc that are spreading the virus in Europe. A simple conference in Boston also impacted people in the US.

      inspectorudy in reply to Paul. | March 7, 2020 at 10:39 pm

      That’s true but he also said that about 16,000 attendees would be from out of the US. It may seem like overkill but remember when Trump stopped all flights out of China to the US and the left went crazy and called him a racist. Maybe it’s time to be over-cautious instead of trying to bluff our way through. The heat of the summer may be all we need to stop this thing. That’s only two months away.

Traveler’s diarrhea is called “Montezuma’s Revenge”. I suggest we call this “Mao’s Revenge”. Or I can be non-PC and call this “Red Chink Fever”.

Leslie– I was please to see that, a few days ago, the FDA released its stanglehold on state and private labs using these “kits” without their blessing. I assume President Trump had something to do with that but, of course, the media isn’t giving him credit. I think it’s important to understand that these “test kits” aren’t something that you might purchase at Wal-Mart. These tests can only be performed at an advanced bio-lab capable of performing Real-time polymerase chain reaction. It’s a very complicated and time-consuming process. Here’s a description of the Research Use Only Real-Time RT-PCR Protocol for Identification of 2019-nCoV. It ain’t easy.

    Liz in reply to snopercod. | March 7, 2020 at 5:39 pm

    From what I can gather, the Trump Admin didn’t see a significant problem with the CDC and other public health agencies, so they didn’t were not concerned. So, it is logical to go after to more obvious problems.

    Surprise – there was an issue due to a late reg on handling the tests. Remember that Trump told the government to look at all regs for snags like this. Missed that one.

    Makes you wonder how many other deep state torpedoes there are!

    stevewhitemd in reply to snopercod. | March 7, 2020 at 8:09 pm

    This is a pretty standard RT-PCR reaction. It’s heavy on quality control which one expects for a clinical test. Most hospital labs have the equipment to do this, the key is a good PCR machine. The rest is standard lab gear.

    A lab tech trained and certified in PCR would have no problem following these instructions

    Total test time is a good half-day; while this is a standard reaction it’s time-consuming. You can run 10 samples per half-plate; a lot of labs would use the bottom four rows to mirror the top four, so it’s 10 samples per plate. This does mean that you try to batch your work; for now, I’d expect having enough samples to be efficient would not be a problem.

    A reminder that a clinical lab (e.g., hospital QUEST, etc.) will be CLIA-certified. They will set up and do a number of practice runs, validate their steps, do a lot of QC, and so on.

    But this is straight-forward as long as you receive the proper templates and standards.

      snopercod in reply to stevewhitemd. | March 8, 2020 at 8:12 am

      Thanks, doc. That’s the kind of information that the media just won’t print. I was under the impression that PCR machines were rare in the U.S., but you’re saying that most hospitals have them?

As Mrs. Eastman alluded to in her 2nd paragraph, change ‘virus’ to ‘flu’ and the media would all but ignore this illness.

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | March 7, 2020 at 3:27 pm

How about the
“Communist Chinese Hack!”

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | March 7, 2020 at 3:29 pm

Five Reasons You Don’t Need to Panic About the COVID-19 Coronavirus
By Ross Pomeroy – RCP Staff

1. The number of cases in China is already falling significantly.
2. The vast majority of cases are mild, and the death rate is likely lower than reported.
3. Only one out of every 1,000 people in Hubei Province has contracted the coronavirus.
4. There have been no reported deaths in young children.
5. The world already survived another pandemic just ten years ago. Remember H1N1, more commonly known as Swine Flu?

Real Clear Science

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | March 7, 2020 at 3:36 pm

Hannity: Left wants you to believe coronavirus is Trump’s fault

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbqZyapMgzY

Go about 4 1/2 minutes in for the best parts.

It’s all good though.

Ann in L.A. | March 7, 2020 at 3:50 pm

My family is being affected two ways: 1) our kid was at Uw Seattle whose term runs through next week. She’s at the airport about to board her flight home 11 days early, because her term is finishing online and there’s no point in staying.

2) the hospital where we work is having trouble getting masks and gowns, because people who don’t need them are using them.

Though there are cases on Uw campus, the reaction is mostly fear. Same with overuse of protective clothing in healthcare.

    Based on what you said, I hope you “quarantine” your kid somewhere in your home since you mention that “we” work is having issues on masks.

    Isolate her or else y’all be isolated real fast!

    Hope all is well with your family….

    Gremlin1974 in reply to Ann in L.A.. | March 7, 2020 at 6:14 pm

    Yea, my hospital had to secure the PPE as well because to much was being stolen.

    If you steal PPE and haven’t been trained in its use or properly fitted, then you deserve to get sick.

I suggest the “Creeping Crud.” That’s what I generally call whatever is going around that makes people miserable and remains undiagnosed.

Now that we actually have a test for this coronavirus, I suspect we will eventually find that it was here in the US for much longer than we think, as was the case with HIV infection.

It is also time to take a hard look at the real causes of this epidemic: airplanes, automobiles, trains and cruise ships.

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to Valerie. | March 7, 2020 at 4:00 pm

    Airplanes used to pump in fresh outside air, and expel the old air from inside the cabin on flights.

    Now they just keep re-using the same air – for some supposed savings…….

      Most commercial airplanes have a hepa filter to capture viruses and bacteria. Some even use UVC germicidal lights killing stuff in the airstream. I doubt that the volume of air recirculated comes anywhere near the volume that can be pushed through a plane with straight ventilation. I also do not think either will protect people from a nearby sick passenger.

    Ariztocrat in reply to Valerie. | March 7, 2020 at 5:22 pm

    I honestly suspect I’ve already had it. My wife and I got sick at the same time about a month back and had to go to urgent care. I tested positive for flu, but she didn’t — which made no sense, considering we had identical symptoms. And if it was the flu, it put me on my @$$ harder than any flu I’ve ever had; bronchitis, coughing till it hurt, shortness of breath from gunk in the lungs and plain exhaustion, soreness and over-sensitivity all over to the point that it hurt even to wear clothes…

    Put it this way — I’m PRAYING that I’ve already had it. If I’m wrong, then I’m probably in for more sheer hell when it does finally come by.

      healthguyfsu in reply to Ariztocrat. | March 7, 2020 at 11:39 pm

      There are strains of the flu that don’t test positive on the flu tests.

      They test for “A” and “B”, which are the two most common strains going around each year. In reality, there are many kinds but only in small levels of transmission because most are caught by the flu shot.

    Liz in reply to Valerie. | March 7, 2020 at 6:07 pm

    If I am reading the reports correctly, the current tests will be swiping nasal and throat passages and possibly go further in the lungs.

    If this has been here for a while, we need a blood test for antibodies. If I had the virus, I won’t have activity in the throat or lungs, but I would have something showing up in my blood.

    IF I was the Government, I would add the CoVid-19 test to any standard blood work to see how extensive the virus was. Or make a CoVid-19 antibody blood test available to people.

    Last year, I opted to pay for a MMR antibody test before going for a round of measles vaccine. Nope, I didn’t have to since the measles I had as a kid were still protecting me.

      Gremlin1974 in reply to Liz. | March 7, 2020 at 6:18 pm

      The problem that I see with antibody testing, Leslie can correct me on this if I am wrong, is that COVID-19 is a member of a common virus family. My state even has its own version of coronavirus it’s called the Arkansas Strain. However, I am thinking the commonality of the virus will make it hard to antibody test, since most people have been exposed to some sort of Coronavirus.

        notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to Gremlin1974. | March 7, 2020 at 7:16 pm

        Did the Clintons invent that?

        stevewhitemd in reply to Gremlin1974. | March 7, 2020 at 8:21 pm

        Depends, of course, on 1) how specific the antibodies are that we generate against COVID-19 and 2) how specific the antibody-to-the-antibody is in the test.

        An antibody has a certain location on it (called the epitope) that binds the target — in this case, the virus. That epitope can be very specific or a bit more generalized. For influenza, the epitopes are really specific which is why you can be infected with one strain of influenza, generate antibodies to that one, and still be infected with another strain. Assuming for the moment that coronaviruses are handled the same way, the antibody for COVID-19 will be very specific.

        For the test, you raise up an antibody (generally in rabbits but one can use mice or goats) that will bind to this epitope. That’s how you get the specificity of the test. Your test antibody then has a reporter on it (e.g., a fluorescent or colorimetric tag). Your test then looks for color change, fluorescence, etc.

        So if the epitope is very specific, and your test antibody is really good, you detect COVID-19 coronavirus infection but not infection by other coronaviruses.

    artichoke in reply to Valerie. | March 7, 2020 at 9:19 pm

    Coincidentally, HIV is one of the goodies this virus can leave behind. Encephalitis and lung destruction, too. There are proteins on this virus for all of those.

    I think some “paranoia” is in order, because we know a lot about this virus. It was sequenced by some people in India.

    It’s a common cold that can kill you if you get it. I’d guess you can avoid the longterm damage if you kill it immediately (shot of whiskey) when you feel a tickle in your throat.

    JusticeDelivered in reply to Valerie. | March 7, 2020 at 10:05 pm

    The real cause, too many people. More people means more opportunity to mutate, increased likelihood of a pathogen becoming more lethal, and more rapid spread.

I think the administration wanted to show their competence after being demonized by democrats before the even started. It’s so obvious the task force knows what the hell they’re doing. I see them decreasing the daily meetings in a few weeks.

A question on the tests – when do you get them?

If I have symptoms and been somewhere close to where a cluster is located – well, ok then – give them the test.

If I have a cough and a tickle in my throat, well maybe you don’t get the test until there are more connections.

People seem to think that the US can go from zero availability to 100% in a day or so. Where is the logical thinking in some of these people.

I am also tired of seeing currently linked articles that have data that is 5 days past the “use by” date.

    artichoke in reply to Liz. | March 7, 2020 at 9:38 pm

    If you have a tickle in your throat, I’d say (not an MD but technically well educated) that you want to start gargling / drinking whiskey or other distilled spirit. You want to kill it before it can deliver its payload of serious diseases, before it would show up on a “Covid-19” test.

    snopercod in reply to Liz. | March 8, 2020 at 8:32 am

    I’m a believer in Zicam, but you have to take it at the first signs of a cold to be of any benefit. I have found that Zicam really does limit the length and severity of colds if taken early enough. Also, I recently learned about N-A-C (N-acetyl-L-cysteine). There is actually scientific evidence that it “inhibits virus replication and expression of pro-inflammatory molecules in A549 cells infected with highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A virus.” Whether it offers the same protection for other viruses, I don’t know. I just started taking N-A-C this morning.

Should seem obvious, but have any media bothered to note that the epidemic began in a country with “Medicare For All”?

    Liz in reply to Daiwa. | March 7, 2020 at 6:15 pm

    And, if you listen to some of the people, the older folks who are dying from the virus would not be treated, but expected to die for the good of the country. Death panels anyone?

    BTW – there has been a significant decrease in toxic pollution in China, gas prices are way down (low in my area is 1.71 for 10% gas. I go for the 100% at about .30 higher), people are not traveling – teleworking is ok and probably more productive!

    What else – bringing back production of drugs and other items will help us. The current market drop is really about the supply chain issue, not the actual virus.

The COVIS will do only one thing, for the US. It will point out the fact that almost all medical supply production, including pharmaceuticals, have been moved off-shore and, that medical institutions do not stock sufficient non-perishable supplies to handle any wide-spread medical problem.

Look, the COVIS is actually part of the influenza family. So far, it responds as well as influenza a and b strains to anti-viral treatment and actually looks very much like influenza in its severity. And no one worries about the flu, anymore. 18000+ deaths from influenza a and b, in the US this year, and no one even noticed. As I said before, this is a media manufactured medical crisis and now is being used as a political weapon against the Trump administration.

    Gremlin1974 in reply to Mac45. | March 7, 2020 at 6:20 pm

    Sad but true. We developed a lot of drugs and stuff here…and then move it off shore of mass production.

      snopercod in reply to Gremlin1974. | March 8, 2020 at 8:42 am

      There are some very smart people here so let me ask you (and everyone): “What would motivate the pharmaceutical companies to return production to the U.S.?” Like any corporation, they’re in business to make money; Why would they move back from a country where the workers make $20 per month to the U.S. where their workers would be making $20 per hour? To me, this is a national security issue, so what could the feds do? Tariffs on imported drugs and ingredients? Tax incentives? Legislation demanding that all Medicare drugs be produced in the U.S.? Subsidies? The problem is, any of those things would drive up the costs of prescription drugs – something diametrically opposed to the administration’s stated policy. We’re kind of in a pickle.

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to Mac45. | March 7, 2020 at 7:18 pm

    “….this is a media manufactured medical crisis and now is being used as a political weapon against the Trump administration….”

    Touche!

    MSNBC Hopes Coronavirus Is ‘Trump’s Katrina’
    https://www.weaselzippers.us/445114-msnbc-hopes-coronavirus-is-trumps-katrina/

    artichoke in reply to Mac45. | March 7, 2020 at 9:23 pm

    No, it’s a cold virus, not influenza.

Gremlin1974 | March 7, 2020 at 6:21 pm

Oh, I vote for Crouching Corona, Hidden Virus or CCHV.

Brave Sir Robbin | March 7, 2020 at 6:24 pm

First of all, let’s try real hard not to politicize this virus. Second, this outbreak is VERY serious. China took extraordinary measures to contain it. The quarantined entire cities and regions. Stop and think about that for a moment and consider “why”?

Here are some facts: (1) It appears to be more contagious than the common flu, (2) unlike the common flu, there is no vaccine to help stop or contain the spread, (3) the mortality rate for the common flu is 1 in 10,000 cases – the mortality rate for this virus is 314 per 10,000 cases – this virus is THREE HUNDRED AND FOURTEEN times more deadly than the common flu, (4) if as many people in the US catch the Coronavirus as caught the flu this year, we can expect 1,250,000 deaths within FIVE months, about the same as the TOTAL Americans that have been killed in war over the last 200+ years, (5) this may be a low outcome because serious cases (around 10% of the total) will overwhelm health care capacity and serious cases will not receive attention, so the mortality rate would increase.

This is a VERY serious matter. The above are the facts. They are not scare mongering. It is NOT Trumps fault to be sure, but brace yourself for draconian measures to contain it. Pray the longer days of spring will suppress this thing and we can prepare a vaccine quickly. We may get lucky. Please note while this type of virus normally recedes with the advent of longer days, the Spanish Flu in 1918 became rampant in AUGUST of that year.

The above dire outcome does not have to happen, but it could. Please, let’s not politicize this with partisanship in any direction. Let’s come together and beet this thing. It’s real.

    Wrathchilde in reply to Brave Sir Robbin. | March 7, 2020 at 6:34 pm

    No. Just no.
    1) Yes, it does appear to be more contagious.
    2) No vaccine as of yet, efforts being fast tracked.
    3) 314 of 10,000 *in total*. Not taking into account the mortality rate with proper treatment. Bad data gives bad results.
    4) Needlessly hyped using your incorrect mortality rate. You can treat this as a “worst case” estimate. Now find a best case, and average the two to get close to the truth.
    5) Again, possible if your numbers are correct, or even within 1 MOA.

    Yes, this is a real infection, it is a serious situation, and needs sober thought and action. What it does *not* need is hyperbolic scaremongering from the Monolithic Media. This may indeed be a global pandemic, but it is not a **GLOBAL PANDEMIC!!111!!** by any means.

      Brave Sir Robbin in reply to Wrathchilde. | March 7, 2020 at 6:58 pm

      “3) 314 of 10,000 *in total*. Not taking into account the mortality rate with proper treatment. Bad data gives bad results”

      A 3.14% mortality is, however, the current number, globally. So, that’s the result of bad or substandard treatment, you say? In Italy, the current mortality rate is just under 4.3%. So far in the US, it’s 5.16%. Also, deaths LAG infection. You have to get sick before you die after all. In the US, the sample size is still rather small, however and thankfully, and potentially misleading, but again, it is far easier to provide top flight care to a small number of people than 10’s of thousands much less than MILLIONS of people, so we should be properly alarmed by that 5% plus mortality rate.

      Without draconian quarantine measures, such as enacted in China, and now apparently in Italy, this thing will kill a whole lot of people. Be prepared for city wide and/or regional quarantines. We will need to trade GDP for lives.

        Brave Sir Robbin in reply to Brave Sir Robbin. | March 7, 2020 at 7:01 pm

        And I do hope I am way off base.

          inspectorudy in reply to Brave Sir Robbin. | March 7, 2020 at 10:54 pm

          Your numbers are a week old and are very far off the mark. The 10,000 number you cited was admittedly wrong because of the number of people who were infected but did not get sick enough to report it or did not get sick at all. So the base number can be many times 10,000. This morning’s WSJ said the new agreed to rate was between .1% and 1%. And that is even based on guesswork. It appears that 60 and older are the main group of mortality. People 30 and under are almost immune from death because of it. It doesn’t matter what we say here because the msm and the Dems have their new Russian hoax even if it isn’t a hoax. They are praying that the heat of summer doesn’t kill it.

          Brave Sir Robbin in reply to Brave Sir Robbin. | March 7, 2020 at 11:47 pm

          “Your numbers are a week old and are very far off the mark. The 10,000 number you cited was admittedly wrong because of the number of people who were infected but did not get sick enough to report it or did not get sick at all. So the base number can be many times 10,000. This morning’s WSJ said the new agreed to rate was between .1% and 1%. And that is even based on guesswork. It appears that 60 and older are the main group of mortality. People 30 and under are almost immune from death because of it.”

          My numbers were as of 06FEB2020 as reported by the World Health Organization…. Not weeks old at all.

          The 10,000 was used to translate mortality rates provided as percentages into more perceivable numbers. There are indeed many times this number that have been infected globally. The mortality rates presented in the WSJ supposes there are huge numbers of unreported infections, a supposition that is not really supported by any data.

          Lastly you say “It appears that 60 and older are the main group of mortality. People 30 and under are almost immune from death because of it.” What is you point? People 60 and older are not important and it does not matter if they die? This is the context of what you wrote. If so, I find that quite appalling. Please feel free to clarify your statement if I have misread or incorrectly perceived its intent and meaning.

          “”My numbers were as of 06FEB2020 as reported by the World Health Organization…. Not weeks old at all.””

          Maybe you’d better check your calendar.

          Milhouse in reply to Brave Sir Robbin. | March 8, 2020 at 3:59 am

          My numbers were as of 06FEB2020 as reported by the World Health Organization…. Not weeks old at all.

          As txvet said, check your calendar.

          The mortality rates presented in the WSJ supposes there are huge numbers of unreported infections, a supposition that is not really supported by any data.

          What data would you like to support it? Everyone says that the majority of infected people have no symptoms, or very mild ones; if that is so, how could they possibly be reported?

          Lastly you say “It appears that 60 and older are the main group of mortality. People 30 and under are almost immune from death because of it.” What is you point?

          The point is that your doomsday scenario depends on everyone getting infected and 3.14% of them dying. So it’s very relevant to point out that of the under-30s who get it, we can expect approximately 0% to die. And of the 30-60s who get it we can expect much fewer than the overall mortality rate to die. So the total number of deaths, even under your scenario, is much lower than you say it is.

        healthguyfsu in reply to Brave Sir Robbin. | March 7, 2020 at 11:55 pm

        Here’s some “fact” numbers for you.

        WHO reports that ~80% of cases will be mild. That is probably an underestimate because many mild cases will go undetected.

        Over half of the world’s treated coronavirus patients have already recovered from the virus.

        Recovery and mortality rates INCLUDE data from China where it hit the worst and Iran where things are so bad that one of their corruptocrat leaders died of it.

        You need to bring yourself back from the fear mongering ledge, take reasonable precautions, and just keep paying attention.

        Or you can be like Meghan McCain and give a shoutout to the doomsday preppers…lol.

      notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to Wrathchilde. | March 7, 2020 at 7:24 pm

      Just read this article on the “environment” the Chinese Citizens have to live in, and take into account their horrid, horrid air pollution, and it’s easy to see why is spread so fast and is more serious there.

      https://regiehammblog.wordpress.com/2020/02/27/birth-of-a-virus/

      BIRTH OF A VIRUS … When my wife and I got off the plane, 18 years ago, to adopt our first daughter, we were taken aback by the split pants. Split pants are (or at least were, back then) pants the children wear that are open in the crotch area. That allows them to urinate or defecate unobstructed, onto the street or wherever they may be. The theory is that eventually they will learn to “aim it at the toilet” or something to that effect.

      Either way, I distinctly remember my brand new Nike slip-ons (probably made not far from where I was standing) sloshing into a mix of urine and who knows what else, and continuing to do so for the next three weeks……

      I watched a man hock up something from his chest and spit it on the floor, right next to us, in a restaurant. No oysters for me, thanks. I’ve suddenly lost my appetite.

      We visited a Hutong (inner city – where the locals live) and saw raw chickens, skinned and bleeding, just laying on the floor, waiting to be thrown on a restaurant grill…for public consumption. No FDA or USDA or food inspectors or “codes” to comply with, here. But why? This is the last purely communist country on earth. You’d think there would be red tape everywhere. What was happening here?

      Then, my wife and I had to rush our newly adopted, 8-month-old daughter to the public hospital…and suddenly it all started making sense.

      As we stepped in more urine, took our number from the print-out machine, walked past the line of children whining and crying from the scalp IVs in their heads, then rushed to clean up blood and mucus (left by the last patient) on the plastic table they were now laying our baby on, then waited on the ONE overworked doctor (attending to no less than three hundred people) try to round up a basic anti-biotic to administer to my daughter (right there on site – no refills) it dawned on me what I was seeing and what I had been seeing this whole time. I wasn’t watching a “backward” culture or a third-world society. These people weren’t genetically inferior to first-worlders. They weren’t “less-evolved” than I was….

      I was witnessing the kind of maximum, almost brutal efficiency a society must develop when the state is the master and the individual is merely a subject. Why would a Communist country not have an effective FDA? Because who are you going to complain to if you get tainted food? The government? They don’t answer to you. The press? They are owned by the government. And again, they don’t answer to you……

        This is all irrelevant. This monster emerged from a lab, obvious candidate is the one located in Wuhan City.

          healthguyfsu in reply to artichoke. | March 7, 2020 at 11:51 pm

          Completely incorrect…poor air quality = diminished lung function.

          That means increased susceptibility to respiratory disease, increased recovery time, and decreased survival rate.

          It was long, but it was not “irrelevant”

        Good grief, Notamember – thanks for your post re visiting China. I have been saying, “China is a 3rd world country” but to see details really brings it home. That explains so much.

    I agree the current virus is transmitted by carriers. FACT

    This is not 1918. FACT
    There is no vaccine for the common cold. FACT.
    Statistics have been used for ulterior motives for more than 1000 years. FACT
    The Chinese are withholding pertinent information. FACT
    The Chinese will continue to withhold information to save face. Fact
    People with compromised immune systems are especially vulnerable to viruses. FACT

    notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital in reply to Brave Sir Robbin. | March 7, 2020 at 7:20 pm

    Too late!

    The DEMS and their Media already did it!

    Where did SARS originate? CHINA! Where did this COVID-19 originate? CHINA! What the hell are those damn commies doing over there? When will CHINA release its’ next “gift” to the world?

    I’ve read all sorts of things re: the lab 300 meters from the seafood market, the Class 4 facility 20-miles away, a report that underpaid researchers were selling their dead animal experiment carcasses to make a few extra bucks on the side, etc.

    Regardless how this started, it started in CHINA, and it’s not the first time something like this has happened. Why isn’t CHINA compensating every damn nation affected because of their “practices”? Why should Americans suffer? Why isn’t Trump dropping several megatons NOW to end the damn problem? Because we end it now when it is relatively easy, or we end it down the road … and that end will likely result in our demise. CHINA is not our friend … never has been … never will be. Wake up, people.

      Milhouse in reply to walls. | March 8, 2020 at 4:01 am

      New viruses often originate in China, simply because there are so many people there. They’re not doing anything to create the viruses, and they certainly aren’t responsible for it.

    In the first place, the deaths from COVIS have all occurred among an elderly, at risk population and all are involving cases which required hospitalization. Millions of flu cases are undocumented every year, because most of them do not require hospitalization. As we get more information on COVIS, it is beginning to look as though the majority of COVIS infections will not require hospitalization and will likely go undiagnosed and unreported. The documented cases are NOT all of the cases out there. So any mortality rate is highly suspect, at this time.

    Then, we have the differences in the quality of medical care worldwide. There are very few first world level medical care system in this world and only one or two are as good as that in the US. So, while we will see more deaths from complications of COVIS-19 in the future, it is impossible to set any accurate number of deaths from COVIS in the US, based upon worldwide numbers. As for the number of deaths in the US, as opposed to the number of confirmed COVIS cases ignores the fact that the vast majority of the cases currently in the US were contracted overseas and went untreated prior to entering the US. The majority of the deaths in the USA from community contacts will likely follow the same pattern and occur within certain identified at-risk populations and following a period of non-treatment, resulting in hospitalization for severe respiratory complications, before the disease is diagnosed.

    I would not worry about COVIS. People should seek treatment immediately upon exhibiting flu-like symptoms. As with any other potentially serious medical condition, early diagnoses can lead to less severe symptoms later on. COVIS is a gold mine for physicians.

      Brave Sir Robbin in reply to Mac45. | March 8, 2020 at 12:09 am

      “Then, we have the differences in the quality of medical care worldwide. There are very few first world level medical care system in this world and only one or two are as good as that in the US.”

      But mortality rates in both Italy and the US are currently higher than those reported in China.

      The rest of your argument is also rather specious. Let me repeat. The current reported mortality rate of the coronavirus is 314 (Three Hundred and Fourteen) times higher that that of the Flu. With your contentions, only 3.25% of actual infections would have been detected and reported to bring the mortality rate down to the level of the common flu. According to PubMed, about 50% of people who contract the flu report to a medical care provider or emergency room, at least in the US. Obviously, the gap between 3.25% and 50% of cases actually reporting to medical care cannot be rationalized. In fact, China greatly increased it reporting of cases based in presumptive diagnosis and not actual testing. The probability that the mortality rates for the corona virus and the common flu are extremely remote.

        With less than 10,000 people tested in the US, it is quite possible that we have a number of mild cases of COVID in this country which are so mild that they are being diagnosed as influenza. That number could be in the hundreds of thousands, by now and we would not know. We have been treating influenza for over 100 years, in this country. We have vaccines against it. We have effective anti-viral treatments to deal with it. And we still have 2 million to 6 million vases of influenza every year with a mortality rate of from 13000 to 65000, every year. And, no one gets excited about it. Why? Because we are used to that. The problem with COVID is that it is new. We do not have enough data on the disease to set reliable benchmarks. So, you have people grabbing whatever numbers they can find and begin extrapolating worst case scenarios from them. And, due to a lack of hard data, the public runs around with their hands in the air screaming that the the end of the world is nigh and get into fist fights over toilet paper. So, we will have to see what the data actually shows as we progress.

      JusticeDelivered in reply to Mac45. | March 8, 2020 at 12:15 pm

      “In the first place, the deaths from COVIS have all occurred among an elderly, at risk population”

      False, not all.

      artichoke in reply to Mac45. | March 8, 2020 at 3:42 pm

      “In the first place, the deaths from COVIS have all occurred among an elderly, at risk population and all are involving cases which required hospitalization.”

      This may be true still in the USA, but it’s certainly not true in other countries that have been hard hit already.

    SpaceInvader in reply to Brave Sir Robbin. | March 7, 2020 at 11:53 pm

    You have your numbers slightly off. The 0.1% fatality rate for the flu means 1 in 1,000 die not 1 in 10,000. Also the flu number is inflated because they use the coroner report which calls it the flu when it is flu, flu like illness, or pneumonia. This new virus is way worse. In addition we don’t know what lasting effects it has on the body. Lung scaring, heart damage and sterility have been reported as well as damage to other organs.

Anything easy to report on is reported on endlessly. E.g the pandemic sham /racial agitprop. Just bang out the same copy over and over; paste the latest figures, locations/maps, names and shiny graphics changes into news reports. Interview Marxist-Leninist spokeswomen working for leftist front group NGO’s operating under tax sheltered 501(3)(c). Easy media click bait money.

This virus scare is just the latest ‘thing.’ The grifter-courtier class of Washington DC need to whip up anxiety to free up legislative funding. It’s the business model of DC. A lot of the power couples in DC are at the nexus of this stuff.

Congress voted to distribute 9 billion in patronage funds. Guess who gets the cash?

And so it goes.

DCVirusGrift2019

RobinGoodfellow | March 7, 2020 at 7:07 pm

Hello! “Kung Flu”? “Flu Manchu”?

Brave Sir Robbin | March 7, 2020 at 7:10 pm

“This is not 1918. FACT”

True – it is 2020, and today people are MUCH more mobile, locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally, than they were in 1918, so it’s far easier to spread a virus, especially one that has a long incubation period and can be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers.

We are all going to die from Climate Change, so .. what a little “Xi’s revenge”

    artichoke in reply to Neo. | March 8, 2020 at 4:04 pm

    Unlike that, this is real trouble, and it’s “anthropogenic” too. I don’t see many people disagreeing that it came from a bioweapons lab. Not just an accident from the same diet some Chinese people have been eating for centuries.

In honor of President Xi Jinping, who’s incompetence has led to this mess: WINNIE THE FLU

Hi Sir Robbin,
If I recall my history correctly, there was an awful lot of travel in 1917, 1918, and 1919 what with folks from all over the world converging on, and then returning from, Europe to participate in the “Great War” being conducted there up through November, 2018.

Ira

    Brave Sir Robbin in reply to Ira. | March 8, 2020 at 12:42 am

    Ira – I once knew a great man named Ira who did quite a lot for me many years ago. I doubt you are him since he is dead, but you have a great name.

    I take your point but could counter it in many ways. However, for brevity, I shall simply posit that you must agree local, regional, national, and international travel in 2020 is at least as active and efficient as it was from 1917 – 1919. If so, the risk of widespread contagion is as least as high, and virtually no place was spared from the Spanish Flu.

https://covid19info.live/

So far, in this country, the death rate is over double the recovery rate.
I am fairly certain I will lose some of our elder family from it.
I am far from dialing back on my concerns.

    inspectorudy in reply to snowshooze. | March 7, 2020 at 11:03 pm

    So far, in this country, the death rate is over double the recovery rate.

    Think about how absurd that statement is. The CDC reported 164 known cases with 11 deaths and that’s the “Known” cases. How many are there with no symptoms bad enough to seek health?

    SpaceInvader in reply to snowshooze. | March 8, 2020 at 12:10 am

    If you have anyone in a home try to get them out. This stuff spreads very easily. I’m worried for my mother too but at least I have her at home where I can keep her away from everyone but me. Now if I can just manage to not catch it…

      healthguyfsu in reply to SpaceInvader. | March 8, 2020 at 12:18 am

      That’s an absolutely legitimate concern, especially if she has diminished lung function. If she can score well on a pulmonary function test (not just for her age) and has a healthy immune system though, then she has little cause for concern

        artichoke in reply to healthguyfsu. | March 8, 2020 at 3:53 pm

        Even as a healthy strong old person, I wouldn’t want to be in a place with a lot of sickly old people who are likely to become very ill. Wouldn’t life be miserable there during all that, even if (and this is far from clear) you are not at increased risk of infection.

        But most people in nursing homes are not in the greatest of health, that’s why they are there. Because they can no longer function sufficiently to be outside.

The people that were the first here to contract the virus are largely all still sick.
Only 8 recoveries listed thus far.
439 currently confirmed infected.
They have now been sick for weeks.
This is not a three day bug.

stutz bearcat | March 7, 2020 at 11:28 pm

Anyone who makes light of this disease is a moron. In order to turn it around the Chinese had to restrict the movements of about a tenth of the worlds population and get everyone to wear masks and goggles in the affected areas. So far we have not restricted movements within the country in any significant way. If every one in the USA just wore a mask it would reduce the R value of the virus. Given current measures, lack of adequate testing, not shutting down public gatherings and no restrictions on movements from infected areas, guaranteed we will see morbidity and mortality on a scale not seen since 1918. There are not enough masks right now for health care workers and we are headed for a shortage of antibiotics. Much of this the direct result of globalization. I hear a lot of goodlegal comments on the blog. But as a board certified Anesthesiologist it is appalling to see an article such as this and most of the comments. One more point, mortality for 60 + age group is orders of magnitudes higher than the flu. Even if mortality is 1% that is 20-30 times influenza mortality. Wake the F*** up.

    healthguyfsu in reply to stutz bearcat. | March 7, 2020 at 11:45 pm

    I believe the guy who doesn’t believe in paragraphs.

    SpaceInvader in reply to stutz bearcat. | March 8, 2020 at 12:05 am

    They won’t listen until it’s in their neighborhood.

    Look, still very little is known about this virus. It is so new on the scene that we have no real idea of its morbidity rate. Most of the numbers bandied about are based upon hospitalized cases and deaths of non-hospitalized cases. However, these figures are worthless, for determining morbidity, without knowing the total number of infected persons. That we do not know, because in mild cases, the symptoms are similar to influenza.

    Now, common surgical masks are of little value for preventing a healthy person from contracting the disease. If worn by the infected, they do provide some benefit. Quarantine is effective, except for the fact that those infected are capable of infecting others before they are symptomatic. How to identify them? Testing will do it. but, in order to be effective, this testing has to be done every few days, in case the person contracts the disease between tests. Also, what is the rate if natural immunity? Does exposure and contracting the virus provide long term immunity for a person? Or can the person be reinfected at a later date?

    Will many more people contract the COVID virus? Yep. Will there be more deaths from complications associated with the virus? Yep. Will it be TEOTWAWKI? Unlikely. In most societies, it is impossible to guarantee that any given person will escape exposure to, and in many cases contracting, the virus. No virus has ever been eradicated by medicine. So, unless you eschew all modern conveniences and confine yourself to a deserted island or mountain-top, you are going to be exposed to, and maybe contract, COVID-19. What happens next depends largely upon you.

      artichoke in reply to Mac45. | March 8, 2020 at 3:57 pm

      People used to kill viruses by drinking whiskey. That can work if they’re still in the throat. But then, that isn’t medicine.

      artichoke in reply to Mac45. | March 8, 2020 at 4:01 pm

      Actually quite a lot is known about it. It just isn’t stuff that is nice to hear.

stutz bearcat | March 7, 2020 at 11:28 pm

Anyone who makes light of this disease is a moron. In order to turn it around the Chinese had to restrict the movements of about a tenth of the worlds population and get everyone to wear masks and goggles in the affected areas. So far we have not restricted movements within the country in any significant way. If every one in the USA just wore a mask it would reduce the R value of the virus. Given current measures, lack of adequate testing, not shutting down public gatherings and no restrictions on movements from infected areas, guaranteed we will see morbidity and mortality on a scale not seen since 1918. There are not enough masks right now for health care workers and we are headed for a shortage of antibiotics. Much of this the direct result of globalization. I hear a lot of goodlegal comments on the blog. But as a board certified Anesthesiologist it is appalling to see an article such as this and most of the comments. One more point, mortality for 60 + age group is orders of magnitudes higher than the flu. Even if mortality is 1% that is 20-30 times influenza mortality. Wake the F*** up.

Just call it the Dreaded Lurgi.

Are north East Asians more susceptible? Two Chinese researchers say so.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/chinese-scientists-find-genetic-explanation-coronavirus-discriminating-race

If this is actually true, then the government and media are getting everyone flipping out when instead we should be keeping cool heads and targeting resources toward the most vulnerable.

For reference, here is some (estimated) data from the CDC on flu/pneumonia for the past 8 years (I did the averages) –
* Their mortality rates are based on estimated case #s that show symptoms.
* Average # of cases was about 28.6 million.
* Average that were hospitalized was 450,000(1.6%). I’ve seen estimates that current outbreak has closer to a 10% hospitalization rate.
* Average of symptomatic cases that ended in death was .13% (12K to 61K range).
* 79% of deaths were people aged 65 and over. 92% were people aged 50 and older.

Data is from – https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Font Resize
Contrast Mode
Send this to a friend