ABC/WaPo Poll: 15% of Bernie supporters will vote for Trump as Biden faces “massive enthusiasm gap” in general election
“Indeed, strong enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters – at just 24% – is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls. More than twice as many of Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic about supporting him, 53%.”
The public perception problems for Joe Biden are growing. He’s not all there, as is obvious from his disastrous livestreams and TV interviews, and has all but disappeared during the Wuhan coronavirus crisis.
A just-released ABC News / Washington Post poll (pdf.) reveals another problem, one that comes as no surprise: Democrats are not enthsiastic about Biden, even as he racks up delegates and appears headed to the nomination.
Biden has only bare majority (51%) support among Democrats, and a 24% enthusiasm gap in a match up against Trump.
From the ABC News poll write-up:
Former Vice President Joe Biden has emerged as Democrats’ top choice for the presidential nomination in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, but with only bare majority support within his party and a massive enthusiasm gap in a November matchup against President Donald Trump.
Indeed, strong enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters – at just 24% – is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls. More than twice as many of Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic about supporting him, 53%.
Trump’s still-strong rating on the economy is another challenge for Biden. So is this: Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who prefer Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders for the nomination, 15% say they’d back Trump over Biden in the fall.
This is potentially devastating for Biden in a general election. While the race is essentially a national dead heat per the poll (49%-47% for Biden), his supporters are much less likely to show up.
Perhaps the Democrats’ biggest risk is under the surface, in Trump’s big advantage in backers who are “very” enthusiastic about supporting him. Strong enthusiasm for a candidate can help boost turnout on Election Day, a must-have particularly for Democrats, who rely more on motivating less-frequent voters to come to the polls.
Biden is losing about the same percentage of Bernie supporters as Hillary did, a reflection of a process viewed as rigged by Bernie supporters. While with Hillary the rigging was through superdelegates and secret DNC manipulation, with Biden it likely was the way in which the establishment — within a week — coalesced the mainstream against Bernie.
Eighty percent of Sanders backers say they’ll vote for Biden against Trump; as noted, 15% say they’d back Trump. (This is familiar: Twenty percent of Sanders supporters said they’d vote for Trump in spring 2016.) For context, 15% of Sanders supporters is 6% of all leaned Democrats, and Trump won 8% of Democrats in 2016. Still, Biden wants all the in-party support he can muster.
Further, among Sanders supporters who say they’d vote for Biden in November, a mere 9% are very enthusiastic about doing so. More, but still only 49%, are “somewhat” enthusiastic.
Trump continues to outperform on the economy, showing that voters do not blame him for the Wuhan coronavirus economic distruption:
Despite deep economic impacts of the coronavirus crisis, 57% of Americans approve of his handling of the economy, a new high in ABC/Post data. And Trump leads Biden in trust to handle the economy, 50-42%. (As reported Friday, 48% also approve of Trump’s handling of the job generally, another career high.)
These findings all are familiar with what we observe outside polling. The chatter about Andrew Cuomo for President reflects a realization among many Democrats that Biden is a weak general election candidate, someone mentally and physically not up to the task of what Democrats consider most important: Defeating Trump.
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Who wouldn’t be enthusiastic about someone like the uncle you have during the holidays who is partially senile and you do your family charity duty by having conversations with him.
Democrats have – like the GOP – faced the karmic rebound. They changed the rules for the nomination and got burned – see Romney. They have pushed an activist judiciary, now Trump is appointing all the Judges.
(There is a new 5-4 podcast on SCOTUS from a lefty perspective – I agree with some of the criticisms, but they could lose the snark and apparently don’t see the bad reasoning on the left)
When you break down all the rules limiters on imprudence, rash acts, fads, and voters excited over some single hard case, it will just get worse until things break down completely. Beyond that, we have a “next quarter” mindset, so we strip companies of capital to pay shareholders, not save or build, and we have applied it to the constitution.
Anybody care to elaborate how Michelle, Hillary or Fredo can swoop in and steal the nomination if there is no Democrat convention? I don’t see how either party will be able to hold a convention, and Biden is clearly in the lead. The DNC could hardly bestow the title of nominee on anybody else at their own choosing.
Clearly, they’ll have to hold a virtual convention over the proprietary videoconferencing software they’ve rushed through development at the last minute.
I’m sure it will be much more effective than the vote-reporting software they rolled out in Iowa, and no one will question the results the DNC reports.
The biggest trouble they would have is in convincing Biden, who has dementia and is delusional, that he needs to step aside for reasons of health. I think it gets tricky because Biden’s mental capacity is diminished but he refuses to see it.
Biden will pick whomever the DNC dictates he should pick for VP. They get him to eventually pull out, though after the convention if they have one, and it falls naturally to the VP pick to “do it for Joe” – when in reality it was always in their plans to do a late switch.
Less exposure for the VP candidate, while having some time on the campaign trail, means a big shift in how Trump had been campaigning against Biden. (I do think President Trump can handle it, as all these Marxists are quite similar despite the MSM label of them being moderates)
The left’s biggest problem is convincing Bernie voters to hold their nose and vote for the DNC candidates. That and voter fraud is the hoped for offset the DNC will look to overcome.
They can have a virtual convention if necessary, which will save Milwaukee burning down. And, clintack, there’s no secret vote-counting — it will be public so everyone will be able to see the result. And if they can keep Biden alive that long I expect them to nominate him and whichever woman he picks as his running mate.
But we should not necessarily expect the running mate to be his replacement when he finally falls off the perch, or they pull it out from under him. That’s when I expect them to parachute in the surprise replacement, either Fredo’s smarter brother or else Michelle 0bama. The running mate will remain the running mate.
When that happens depends on the polls. If Biden is doing well against Trump then they will hold off on the switch until after the election. If he is not doing well then they will pull it shortly before the election, timed to maximize the sympathy vote.
It’s been a long time since the conventions have been anything more than a rubberstamping of decisions already made by the party bosses, who will communicate with each through backchannels the way they always have. Then the word will go out via the media and the usual other avenues and the little people will fall in line as they always do.
Sure, Biden dies of the CCP virus.
I don’t care who they vote for as long as its not the DNC pick.
The problem is that there is a real liklihood that Mr. Biden will not end up as the candidate. He is not able to do it. The media know it. The GOP knows it. His family knows it. And even the Dems know it as demonstrated by their restricting and controlling of how he speaks publicly.
Biden’s function was to eliminate the Sanders candidacy. Mission accomplished. Now the Democrat inside elite will designate the true candidate who will either run as the VP candidate (to replace Biden if he wins) or to actually be the presidential candidate after forcing Biden out for age/health/whatever excuse they can come up with reasons.
And of course the big bloody battle within the Democratic Party will be for that replacement position between the Clinton and Obama camps.
I don’t know what will be most horrible to watch: the knifing of Biden, the ruthless Clinton-Obama fight or the media’s effort to smooth it all over.
Pass the popcorn.
I don’t know what will be most
horribleFUN to watch:FIFY, Blaise.
It’s delicious to imagine the possibilities … in song. My parody lyrics of the old Jimmy Web tune “By the Time I get to Phoenix” – titled “By the time we vote next November” imagines this:
Meanwhile, back at HQ they’ve been scheming
Twenty clowns and not one nominee
So the Brokers pulled some strings to crash the party
B.O.H.I.C.A. boys, here comes Hillary
Hope to record it soon – but that one’s difficult because it’s such a draggy song – not unlike the Democrat party. Draggy. Real drags.
Joe Biden, if allowed to be the nominee, will become the Dems ‘Bob Dole’ or ‘Walter Mondale’.
Worse.
That his family, most notably the esteemed, pretend “Doctor” Jill, would allow this to continue is as representative of their selfishness and greed (Joe is very much corrupt by his selfish use of public office) as anything.
That March 17th appearance of old Joe standing mute at the podium until his money-manager, the said “Dr” Jill, came to the rescue, at 03:20,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=25&v=tIwH4kF5OvY&feature=emb_logo
Biden can’t make it to the finish line in November which creates a massive problem for the Dims. Bernie is still the ingenue waiting in the wings and should be the heir apparent when Biden finally is forced out. If the DNC does an end-run around Bernie is Bros will go ballistic which could even lead to violence. This will be fun to watch as they trip over their own boy parts.
Only if it happens before the convention. That’s why they will do all they can to keep his candidacy alive until at least after the convention. Once the convention’s over and Biden is officially the candidate Sanders is no longer in the wings and they can replace him; but ideally they would like to hold off until late October so they can keep their options open.
Biden can serve a very useful and clever purpose for the DPRC (Democratic Propaganda Religion of Communism). He is a screen behind which they arrange the actual power-holders.
If (unlikely) Biden-Bot can be patched together well enough to fill his puppet role and (more unlikely) wins without massive vote fraud, then it’s happy dance time. They can run their fantasy agenda behind a disposable filter-mask name Biden. If the batteries keep falling out, someone their base actually gets rolling about is subbed. They have the perfect excuse for bypassing the hated election formality, in which the proles might choose an un-approved or disobedient candidate.
Only if they’re happy with the running mate taking over eventually. If not, they can’t let him become president, so they’ll replace him before Dec 14.
A vote for Biden is a vote for the unknown. Literally. You have no idea which deep staters will hold the levers of power or how soon his mental capacity will give out and he is replaced.
“Being there” comes to life. And no Dem gives a damn.
What’s not unknown is the general direction he or his Democrat string-pullers will take the country = toward more and more government.
That’s the essence of every Democrat who runs for office. More government and more control of the people.
Democrats are the embodiment of that which the Framers sought to contain. Freedom FROM government. The Democrat Party turns this upside-down. To Democrats, more government, more taxation amounts to freedom.
You mean like $2,000,000,000,000 more control of the people?
73% of the biden supporters are less than honest.
Bernie was never going to get more than 30% to 35% in the primaries. This would have been enough to challenge Biden at the convention. He needed a couple more candidates to stay in longer and take 20% of the delegates away from Biden.
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I think that the Party elites made deals with the other primary candidates to drop out early and swing support to Creepy Uncle Joe. It really seemed fishy that all the serious contenders dropped within the first couple weeks leaving a on-on-one race which Bernie couldn’t possibly win.
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I hope Bernie stays the course. This is his last hurrah before retiring to his dacha to write his next mega-million dollar memoir. If he gives in early, Joe will swing back to the center to try and get those Independent votes and the imaginary Republicans that will swing away from Trump. It will be total collapse for Old Sniffy Hair and the Dem Party as the base will stay home come November.
The dems biggest issue is turnout The repubs have far more senate seats to defend and an unthusiastic dem party could lead to several seats switching hands and possibly control of the senate. Decreased turnout could also put the house more in play also.
Will the big donor class put money behind Biden, the party or select specific senate or house seats to target?
I can’t recall a situation where anyone voted for the VP over the presidential candidate.
The dems should nominate Sen. Romney. He has experience running and losing.
The other 85% will remain in their basements.
gonna be michelle obama/unsure VP vs trump/pence
Barrack has to be Michelle’s VP pic, cause
Barry’s always wanted to be
First Lady!
I do not believe those general election polls for a moment. The problem Democrats are facing is that Biden appears to be winning these primaries and caucuses fairly. Replacing Biden after he likely gets the delegate count he needs will not sit well with the electorate in general, and rank and file Democrats in specific. That will further hurt Democrat enthusiasm, especially impacting down-ticket races. (But perhaps their odds are still better that way, can you imagine a senile Joe Biden -likely with dementia – debating Trump?)
If that happens, Trump will win by a decisive margin; Republicans will retain, maybe even expand, their majority, and flip the House of Republicans, making Steve Scalise the new Speaker of the House.
That only applies if he’s visibly dumped. But he won’t be; he will have a medical episode and tearfully resign, showing his devotion to the country over his personal ambitions. Or he will simply be unable to continue, and have to be replaced. (Whether this is actually the case will be irrelevant; I’m talking about the story the DNC and MSM will be pushing.) Far from it not sitting well, it will be designed to elicit a sympathy vote, like Paul Wellstone’s funeral, only (they hope) not so blatantly that everyone sees through it and it backfires, because they’ll have learned their lesson from that.
Since it’s already being discussed, there will be no sympathy vote. More likely leave disgusted voters staying at home, or leaving the top of the ballot blank, or voting 3rd party. or even voting for Trump. Depending on their level of disgust.
Two scenarios mentioned above, both of which are problematical.
One- replace Biden before the election. Has to be timed both- before the election, and before each states deadline. And since we do not have a national election, but rather 50 state elections, the Democrat Party in each state is going to have to request it. Replacing the frontrunner if he’s not dead or in a coma is going to split the party. No matter who they come up with. The primary voters who didn’t vote for Biden are, each and every one of them, gonna be a little tiffed if any non-primary candidate gets parachuted in.
Now, suppose he does eke out a win in November, and the Party decides to replace him before the electoral college meets. Now, you’re got more problems. Biden has to release his designated electoral college voters unless he dies. Otherwise, they’re pledged to vote for him. And even if he releases the voters, they cannot be replaced. The party will actually have to convince a clear majority of EV voters to vote for the same replacement. If it fails by a single vote, into the house the election goes.
If I did the count correctly, 25 states have a majority Republican makeup. 25 votes. 24 states and DC have a majority Democrat makeup. 25 Democrat votes. Pennsylvania is 9-9. And that’s this Congress. The new Congress meets Jan 3, the votes are counted Jan 6.
No, it doesn’t have to be timed for the state deadlines, because in the actual state elections the candidate is not Biden but the slate of people who are running to be electors. And those would-be electors will have actually pledged to vote for Joe Biden or for whomever the DNC selects to replace him. So they can leave his name on the ballot and just announce on the news that a vote for Biden will actually count as a vote for 0bama, or whomever else they parachute in.
Again, no, they’re pledged to vote for him or for whomever the DNC replaces him with. They’re chosen for their loyalty to the party. Sure a handful might break their pledge, especially if it’s not close so they can afford to. But almost all will go along with it.
Seems like each time Joe Biden opens his mouth he puts his foot in it in one way or another. It’s pretty apparent that he’s losing his marbles and that’s sad to see happen to anyone. You just don’t want a guy who is slipping like that as the CEO of your country.
At this point, I’m not sure Biden is mentally or physically capable of making breakfast.