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Germany Heading Towards Recession, Says Government Report

Germany Heading Towards Recession, Says Government Report

Europe’s largest economy registers negative growth in two successive quarters

Germany is heading into a recession, a report released by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s office said. The economists working at the Chancellor’s office see Germany technically in a recession given the country’s negative growth in two successive quarters, the German weekly Der Spiegel reported. Europe’s largest economy is expected to contract between July and September, as it did in the second quarter.

The admission comes just days after the German Economy Ministry announced that the country was not in a recession. Despite grim official projections, Merkel’s government continues to downplay the economic fears. “The German finance minister doesn’t seem to be in a hurry,” the public broadcaster Deutsche Welle reported this week, “though, indicating that a stimulus package will only come if and when Germany is in a very pronounced recession.”

In June, Germany’s industrial production fell by 5.2 percent compared to last year, the biggest decline since the financial crisis of 2008. A no-deal Brexit could further weigh down Germany’s shrinking economy, economists at the Chancellor’s office believe. “The German government thinks that there is a “high probability” of a no-deal Brexit,” the London-based Financial Times confirmed.

Der Spiegel reported the assessment drawn by economists at Federal Chancellery:

The Chancellor’s office expects a continued downturn in German economy for this year. “There are emerging signs of a slight decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter, and thereby a technical recession,” a chancellery documents [obtained by] Der Spiegel said.

In the second quarter, the economic output contracted by 0.1 percent as compared to the previous quarter. The exports [working for] Chancellor Angela Merkel (Christian Democratic party) see a similar decline between July and October. If an economy declines for two quarters in a row, this is usually defined as a recession. “A series of early indicators signal a weak industrial output continuing well within in the second-half of the year,” [the document said].

The report regards this to be a positive sign that the domestic economy was still intact. “The severe crisis for the German economic is still not to be expected, provided the trade conflicts do not escalate and a unregulated Brexit does not take place,” the document further said. “We see no need for short-term measures to stabilize the economy.” [Translated by the author]

Chancellor Merkel’s spokesman refused to comment on the report cited by Der Spiegel, news agency Reuters reported.

Current developments thoroughly debunk the narrative the mainstream media and the liberal elites have been peddling in recent years. They predicted a disaster for the United Kingdom for daring to leave the European Union, and foretold economic doom if candidate Donald Trump were to take the White House. Germany, on the other hand, was to be rewarded with an economic boom for letting in millions of able-bodied men from Arab North Africa and Middle East.

Ahead of the 2016 presidential election, Germany’s Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel warned U.S. voters of an impeding doom if they were to elect the Republican candidate Trump. “[The U.S. will see] shrinking GDP, fewer jobs and higher unemployment,” Gabriel told Der Spiegel.

“Britain’s decision to leave the EU has left the country on the brink of a recession that will reverberate around the world,” The Guardian reported days after the Brexit referendum.

Germans, in contrast, were going to reap benefits for opening up their borders. “The German business community views the recent influx of refugees as an opportunity to help companies grow and ensure long term prosperity,” Der Spiegel joyfully reported in August 2015. “Refugees to pay our pension,” a February 2016 editorial in the newspaper Frankfurter Rundschau promised.

In a April 2018 editorial, London-based The Economist declared Chancellor Merkel-led Germany as the “model for the West.” Justifying its enthusiasm, the magazine explained that the “biggest change comes from Mrs. Merkel’s ‘open door’ policy towards refugees, which brought in 1.2 million new migrants in 2015-16.” The magazine rejoiced at the sudden outburst of diversity, thanks to Merkel’s immigration policies, which were turning “once-homogeneous Germany” into a “melting-pot.”

The hopes of integrating migrants into Germany’s export-oriented and technology-driven economy have failed miserably. “Almost every second unemployed person is of migrant background,” Germany daily Die Welt reported in March. “In case of persons fit for employment receiving unemployment that number was 57 percent.”

The situation would have called for schadenfreude had this economic downturn only impacted the German political elite who have blindly backed Chancellor Merkel’s policies. The poverty in Germany is at the highest since the unification of the country in 1990. The retired and the elderly are among the worst hit. Close to 15 million Germans, over 20 percent of the population, “aren’t earning enough to pay their bills or adequately heat their homes,” a 2018 government study reveals.

[Cover image via YouTube]


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Now would be a good time to pull all American forces out of Germany.

The Friendly Grizzly | August 24, 2019 at 12:26 pm

Barry: I agree. I can’t give you an uptick until I can log in on the desktop site.

    It’s alright, I don’t pay much attention to the thumbs up/down 🙂

    Two* of my career military uncles spent considerable time in Germany. Well over 10 years for one of them (Army). Now, they were there to defend the USA, but the Germans received the benefit of their service.

    Since they no longer appreciate the dedication of the Americans that serve, regularly denigrating us, and since they cannot be motivated to even spend a paltry 2% on their own defense and the common NATO defense, let them go.

    Their primary contribution to this world is heartbreak, pain, murder, and destruction.

    *yes, I have more than 2

      maxmillion in reply to Barry. | August 24, 2019 at 3:13 pm

      Consider that possibly the primary reason we keep a big presence in Germany is for us, not them. Given the experiences of WWI and WWII, they need to be more directly chaperoned.

        Barry in reply to maxmillion. | August 24, 2019 at 6:48 pm

        “Now, they were there to defend the USA, but the Germans received the benefit of their service.”

        I know why they were there.

        If you’re suggesting we need to keep military there to stop the Germans from creating more trouble, then best just to nuke them and get it over with or charge them the cost of our occupation.

          Tom Servo in reply to Barry. | August 25, 2019 at 9:14 am

          A few weeks ago, two of Germany’s fighter jets collided with each other while training, one pilot was able to eject.

          Think about this seriously, because it is true: Germany lost 10% of its entire operational fighter jet force in that one accident. They have stripped so much money from their military that they now no longer have one.

          Barry in reply to Barry. | August 25, 2019 at 10:56 am

          I know. Sad doesn’t begin to describe it. They depend entirely on the USA for their defense, contribute nothing, and then scheme ways around sanctions on the enemy. There are a lot of good people in Germany but they are overwhelmed by the outright communists and the commie sympathizers.

What a shit article. It wildly conflates things that have nothing to do with each other (Germany entering a technical recession, the 2015 refugee crisis and the question of what impact a no-deal Brexit might have) in order to strawman some sort of “mainstream media and the liberal elites” narrative that only exists in the authors fantasy and is entirely constructed out cherry-picked quotes made by different people in different countries over several years in different circumstances.

This Vijeta Uniyal guy simply cant’t just stick to basic facts and has to constantly editorialize – and this isn’t the first time either. Maybe you should have at least some basic journalistic standards yourself before you criticize the “mainstream media”.

    Barry in reply to PMCA. | August 24, 2019 at 1:42 pm

    Poor baby. I notice you refute nothing in the article.

    A few facts:

    25% of Germans now come from immigrant background. 25%.
    42% of children under 6 are from an immigrant background.

    The pathetic hope of the politician class in Germany that importing people to work for low wages would save the coming collapse of the pension system hasn’t worked out. Almost half the unemployed are of migrant background.

    Germany is cooked.

      PMCA in reply to Barry. | August 24, 2019 at 2:04 pm

      The German legal definition of “immigrant background” is having at
      least one parent who was not born in Germany.

      My father immigrated in the late 1950s as a child from Italy (his father came to Germany as a guest worker under the 1955 bilateral recruitment agreement). My mother is German.

      My father has been living in Germany for 60 years vs 5 year in Italy. I’m in mid 30s.

      For statistical purposes, I have an “immigrant background”. I am not quite sure what you point is, but I am sure that my family has been a terrible drag on the German economy and society.

      As far as “refuting” the article goes… there isn’t even anything there to refute. Cherry-picking and assembling a bunch of quotes (mainly from interviews and opinion pieces) to push a overly simplistic and one-sided narrative is maybe good propaganda, it sure as hell isn’t anything resembling journalism. So if that’s how LI goes about its business, it’s a bit rich when LI also criticizes the mainstream media for whatever failings it may very well have.

      And let me be clear. It’s not all of LI’s reporting that’s as shit (or I wouldn’t bother coming here). It’s pretty much Vijeta Uniyal screeds on international politics that are of such low quality. At least tag them clearly as opinion pieces, for fucks sake. Because that’s what they are – badly written hot takes.

        JusticeDelivered in reply to PMCA. | August 24, 2019 at 2:10 pm

        I gather that you cannot see the difference between your family and the current immigrants? Different time and very different circumstances.

          I was referring to Barry’s scare mongering:
          “25% of Germans now come from immigrant background. 25%”.

          Yes, they are. And the vast majority of those 25% are people like me. The legal definition of “immigrant background” in Germany is overly broad. So broad, in fact, that it is essentially meaningless.

        Barry in reply to PMCA. | August 24, 2019 at 7:12 pm

        I know what the definition of immigrant background is. Nothing is mysterious or unusual about it. It’s why the word “background” is used as a modifier.

        Your corrupt government doesn’t publish good statistics on the makeup of the 25%, so it’s impossible to tell if “the vast majority of those 25% are people like me” is true.

        What you didn’t address of course is where the truth is, 42% of children age 6 and under are of immigrant background. Are they Italian? No, I know they are not, you know they are not. It’s why you only “cherry picked” the 25% number.

        Or the fact that 1 out of 2 out unemployed are of the immigrant background. Are those Italians? No, of course not.

        No “scare mongering” required. It is what it is.

        Define for us the meaning of “technical recession”. It appears you intend to say Germany is not in a recession when it clearly is, or rathe will be.

        Vijeta Uniyal in reply to PMCA. | August 25, 2019 at 3:06 am

        Thank you for the comment. I am not conflating Germany’s current economic downturn with the migrant crisis. I am contrasting media’s doom-and-gloom coverage of Trump’s candidacy/Brexit with their rosy predictions regarding the migrant influx.

        I am also questioning Merkel’s priority setting: open borders policy in face of rising poverty at home.

    ttl in reply to PMCA. | August 24, 2019 at 2:59 pm

    This is a blog, not a news site. If you don’t want to see opinions, you’re visiting the wrong place. Just sayin’. Of course, if you don’t want opinions, the mainstream news might be the wrong place too, lol.

notamemberofanyorganizedpolicital | August 24, 2019 at 1:50 pm

Germany has been head first diving into depression for many months now.

It’s just that their lyin’ media have lied about it just like their Reich Bundeswirtschaftsministerium lied about it a few days ago. (See LI article above.)