500 days until the 2020 general election.
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll discovered that enthusiasm and Independent support for Democrats has gone down ahead of the 2020 elections.
The poll found that “75 percent of Republican registered voters say they have high interest in the 2020 presidential election — registering a ‘9’ or ’10’ on a 10-point scale — versus 73 percent of Democratic voters who say the same thing.”
Okay, so that doesn’t seem like much of a fall, right? Compare it to the enthusiasm in 2018. Democrats held a double digit lead over Republicans until right before the election.
- April 2018: 66% Democrats, 49% Republicans.
- June 2018: 63% Democrats, 47% Republicans
- September 2018: 65% Democrats, 61% Republicans
- October 2018: 82% Democrats, 80% Republicans
Should Democrats worry? Yes, since the “overall enthusiasm for 2020 is sky-high, with 69 percent of all voters expressing a high level of interest in the upcoming election.” A poll in October 2018 found that 72% of people had a high interest in the election.
If that number is almost on par with enthusiasm circa October 2018, I predict the interest will continue to rise.
The enthusiasm for Democrats may grow as the primary field dwindles. Then again, this may not become a factor considering former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) have topped the polls since polling began for 2020. Those polling beneath the two old white males aren’t even close to reaching the top.
Independents helped the Democrats capture the House of Representatives in 2018. For the first time since 2008, the Democrats received more independent votes, 54% to 41%.
This didn’t surprise anyone since polls throughout 2018 showed that independents moved towards the Democrats.
- January 2018: 50% Democrats, 34% Republicans
- June 2018: 43% Democrats, 40% Republicans
- August 2018: 34% preferred Democrats, 26% preferred Republicans, 40% undecided
The tides have turned…
Independents have not completely sided with President Donald Trump, but they have begun to stray from the Democrats. From NBC News:
His approval rating among indies is 38 percent (versus 46 percent overall); just 34 percent have a positive view of him (versus 39 percent overall); and only a combined 28 percent of them say they are enthusiastic or comfortable when it comes to his re-election (versus 41 percent overall).
They stray further when it comes to impeachment:
A plurality of indies — 45 percent — say Congress should NOT hold impeachment hearings, compared with 19 percent of them who believe there’s enough evidence to begin impeachment proceedings NOW.
Thirty-four percent take the middle ground: Congress should continue investigating to see if there’s enough evidence to hold impeachment hearings in the future.
Among all Americans, it’s 48 percent oppose impeachment hearings, while a combined 49 percent want them now or possibly in the future if there’s enough evidence.
As NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart puts it, “The American public has reached a hung jury – not innocent, not guilty and they haven’t reached a consensus.”
This could be why Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi continues to brush aside impeachment talk. Despite pressure, she has consistently said the impeachment talk will cause further division among the party. Maybe she’s taking the independent voters into consideration, too.
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